gm frens July’s outlook is here~ I’ll mainly talk about the narratives that may be hyped in July, as well as my personal ratings.
1. Ethereum S level
The biggest thing in July is the Ethereum ETF and Mt. Gox. The market will always react to events ahead of them. As the event comes, the impact of the event on the market will become smaller and smaller. This is why people often say "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News". If history rhymes, Ethereum may be on track for a similar performance to Bitcoin following the adoption of the ETF - of course we also have to take into account the overall general economic environment and the impact of the US election on the market.
But on the matter of Sell the news, I agree with Zhusu’s point of view. Market reflexivity, bro
Source: PANews
Regarding Ethereum Beta, I previously selected four coins: $ENS, $ETHFI, $TURBO, and $MOG. $TURBO and $MOG have large price fluctuations and are suitable for swing trading, while $ENS performs best. Regarding the coin $TURBO, I will update my understanding: it has little correlation with Ethereum, so it will be removed from the List.
The current list is: $ENS, $LDO, $PEPE, $MOG, $MKR ($MKR is still the story of splitting and renaming, and the protocol income and fundamentals are also great)
Source: PANews
Interested friends can review this post of mine
Source: PANews
2. Layer1 (Level A), Layer2 (Level B), Layer3 (Level C)
Solana Class A
I've talked about my opinion before, Solana's only current narrative is the Meme Coin Casino. Regarding the catalysts for ETF applications, as well as Blink, as well as the previous DePIN and Solana Mobile, these narratives will take time to verify. The summary is that Solana’s goal is Mass Adoption, but there is a long way to go. Currently the only market demand for Solana is the hype meme coin.
Source: PANews
Avalanche Class B
Avalanche may introduce some new events, similar to the previous Avalanche Rush. "Proof of $AVAX Boost"
Fantom Class B
Convert to $S , I have talked about it in previous posts
I don’t have much to share about Layer 2. I mainly focus on the wealth effect of Basechain and the Farm opportunities on Arbitrum. However, Layer 2 tokens such as $ARB and $OP do not have many opportunities to intervene. At the same time, if the ZK narrative breaks out, you know which target to choose :)
$ZK is the best meme for ZK
Let me briefly talk about my views on Layer3’s $XAI.
Currently, the TPS on the Xai chain has reached 104, ranking first in Layer 2 and Layer 3 of Ethereum. I have explained this phenomenon in previous posts. In addition, on July 9, $XAI will unlock approximately 200 million tokens (71% of the current circulation) - this is a very large unlocking event. Thinking conspiratorially, could the occurrence of these two events be related? Will Xai use data processing methods to make price growth more reasonable? Everything is unknown. But I have added $XAI to my Watchlist, and I will step in immediately if the price changes unusually.
Source: PANews
I have always been very optimistic about $DEGEN, but the currency price performance is rubbish. Therefore, I won’t go into details here.
All in all, the price of Layer3 Token tokens mainly depends on catalysts and narratives. There are not many real users (here refers to $DEGEN, $DMT and $WINR), and the short term is greater than the long term.
3、RWA A 級
$ONDO is the best target and is closely related to BlackRock. Ondo and Ethereum are BlackRock’s main positions in promoting tokenization.
4、AI A 級
There is not much to talk about. The merger of $FET, $OCEAN, and $AGIX is about to end, and the unlocking of $WLD has begun. If the rise of the sector depends on the release of external products and technologies, it is also short-term speculation. Among the 30-day narrative strength, AI Token’s price performance is the weakest.
圖源：Alpha Screenerhttps://dune.com/dyorcrypto/relative-strength-crypto-narrative
5. Social networking is still a false proposition, currently rated C.
I used to think that Coinbase Smart Wallet would bring a wave of hype about Basechain. However, in the end, under this market sentiment, the overall performance of the Basechain ecosystem was not impressive, and only $BRETT came out. Big failure in this wave of currency selection. A review is that the market liquidity and sentiment are not enough to sustain the explosion of the Basechain ecosystem. There may be only one coin or two or three coins that will perform well. It is not good to intervene too far on the left side. You can only monitor the market conditions on the chain at any time and intervene on the right side.
6. The game is currently rated C. False proposition x2
Pixels Online's performance remains strong, but its price performance is poor.
Source: PANews
The Beacon performed poorly - although related activities drove the return of old players and the joining of new players, the sustainability was not good.
Mavia launched Phase 2, you can refer to this post for details, but the market is not buying it
From the comparison of narrative token strength over the past 90 days, we can clearly see that game narrative did not perform well in the last quarter (low EQ: worst). I expect a reversal, but won't get involved at this time.
Image source: Alpha Screener
For specific events in July, you can check this picture
Source: PANews
Regarding the forecast of the overall economy, I recommend these two articles:
When Will Liquidity Flood The Market?
The Guardian
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reproduced with permission from: "PANews"
Original author: Sleeping in the rain