Last night, Powell's speech at the meeting caused a sharp fluctuation in the market. He remained silent on the issue of interest rate cuts, while insisting that the job market is very strong. Looking at the data in July, the Fed's current interest rate is 5-5.25%, and the market expects a 91% probability of a rate hike in July, which is undoubtedly a cold water for the market that expects a rate cut😢
The market generally expected a rate cut, but in July, it may usher in a rate hike, which caused the price of Bitcoin to plummet😰
The strong performance of US employment is one of the reasons why the Fed is cautious about the cut. Strong employment data means that consumer and resident incomes are stable or even growing, which will delay the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, and thus affect the performance of risky assets such as Bitcoin.
CME data has an abnormally low expectation for a rate cut in 2024, which is unprecedented in history. As we all know, rate cuts usually bring about an increase in liquidity and stimulate economic growth, which may also drive up the prices of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.