Traders now see a 55% chance that President Biden will abandon his campaign and a 42% chance that he will do so before the Democratic National Convention.
Polymarket bettors put the odds of Biden dropping out of the presidential race at 55%.
According to The Washington Post, Barack Obama privately expressed concerns about Biden's campaign performance.
The odds that President Biden will drop out of the race for the White House hit an all-time high of 55% on Polymarket after former President Barack Obama expressed concerns about Biden's campaign and debate performance.
The Washington Post reported late Tuesday that former President Barack Obama, concerned about Biden's chances of reelection after his poor debate performance, stressed his belief in Trump's strong electability and has been offering him advice and support privately while publicly expressing confidence in his campaign.
Bettors are less sure when Biden will drop out.
The market believes that there is a 42% chance that Biden will withdraw before the Democratic National Convention scheduled for August 19. According to the New York Times, Democratic leaders are ready for Biden to withdraw from the election, and the process of obtaining a new candidate will be a complicated process. The easiest way is to nominate Biden's running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris.
The market realized this would be the path of least resistance, raising Harris’ odds of becoming the Democratic nominee to 31% on Tuesday, as CoinDesk reported earlier. Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors gave Harris a 13% chance of winning the presidency and Joe Biden a 16% chance.
More than $211 million was bet on Polymarket’s presidential election contracts, while nearly $10 million was bet on Biden to drop out.
It is worth noting that shortly after the New York Times published its commentary on the article, a White House spokesperson quickly responded, denying the possibility that Biden was considering withdrawing from the election. However, it seems that the market did not "buy" this statement, and the bets on Biden's withdrawal from the election on Polymarket rose instead of falling. As of press time, the probability of betting on Biden's withdrawal has soared to 82%.
More importantly, US Vice President Kamala Harris's probability of running for this term's presidency has surpassed Biden and is currently 19%, while Biden's is only 8%; Trump's probability of winning is 63%.
All leaves are simple~