Today is Tuesday, July 2, 2024. Yesterday, the first trading day of July, we saw a rebound in Bitcoin. In the futures market, all the airdrop positions at $62,200 and $63,500 have been liquidated. There are still strong short positions around $64,000, but not as thick as the long positions below. I also mentioned this step of increase yesterday. If we start from more than $60,000, we can say that the price rebound of $3,000 is also because the market conditions are not too good. The RSI below quickly touched the overbought range. Some corrections may be needed here. It does not mean that the price of the currency must fall to effectively lead to the correction of the RSI strength indicator. The price can also achieve the same effect by moving horizontally within the range. Starting from the decline on June 7, this is the first time that Bitcoin has touched the overbought range on the 4-hour trend, so we need to pay attention to the current price level.

According to the Bitcoin URPD on-chain indicator, the support level is $61,000, while the resistance levels are $64,000 and $66,250. A few days ago, the CEO of Cryptocond gave a chart, and we can see that the cost line of the new whale is at $64,000, so this integer looks like a resistance level. Of course, the average price limit for short-term holders is $64,400. It is best for Bitcoin to recover here as soon as possible. The market is really boring now, and it is often a good opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at this time, because short-term holders have generally fallen into losses. Such opportunities are actually rare, especially after the start of the subsequent second bull market.

We have also discussed the extent of Bitcoin miner capitulation before, and it has reached the level seen when the FTX exchange went bankrupt in December 2022. After the FTX incident, the bottom of Bitcoin's cycle was fully formed, and Bitcoin prices resumed their rise. Now we see a similar level again, and perhaps this also confirms the short-term bottom of $58,000. However, it is one-sided to draw this conclusion hastily, and it is difficult to confirm whether this is the real bottom, especially considering the impact of MPGOX this month. I would tend to be more conservative for July.

Of course, Coinbase doesn't think so. We shared Coinbase's views last weekend. They believe that after several waves of declines in June, a lot of negative factors and speculative long leverage have been cleared, and Bitcoin prices may recover this month. Let's take a look at the indicator related to long-term holders, that is, the SOPR indicator. There is a view that there seems to be relatively strong buying power around $58,000, because in the last two 20% price declines, the indicator has basically found support here. I am not referring to the price, but the 7-day moving average based on the long-term holder SOPR. In the process of Bitcoin approaching $73,000, we have seen two obvious highs. Long-term holders realized some profits at high levels, which of course had some impact on Bitcoin prices. The SOPR indicator is now seeing a low, similar to the last time it fell below $57,000. The yellow line of the SOPR indicator is currently in the high range of the beginning of this year. The question is whether Bitcoin can hold this range this time, because we have to consider the problem of Mtgox this month. What about the SOPR of short-term holders? This time we are looking at the 14-day moving average of the short-term holders' SOPR indicator, which also looks to be in a relatively negative range, almost similar to the decline in August last year. The reason I discuss this is to understand how destructive short-term holders can be at this stage if prices continue to fall. At $73,000, the short-term holder group had a lot of unrealized profits, and this group is very sensitive to price declines. We have started to retreat from the peak we saw at $73,000. In fact, the profit margin of short-term holders has been shrinking until now we see it fall below this value again. If the price of Bitcoin falls further, short-term holders will actually sell at a loss until all short-term holders completely surrender and fall into despair, then the short-term bottom of Bitcoin may appear.

There is another point about Bitcoin miners. The blue line we saw before represents the withdrawal transaction volume of Bitcoin miners. We have observed that when the miners' withdrawal transactions increase, the Bitcoin price tends to decline. We have seen similar records many times since March 2023. Conversely, when the miners' withdrawal transaction activities decrease, the Bitcoin price tends to rise.

Let's take a look at the MVRV momentum indicator for short-term holders. This trend is still maintained very well. The blue line is the 365-day daily average. Its support strength was very obvious in 2017. If it hadn't been for the impact of the global coronavirus in March four years ago, I believe it would have been well defended. If this trend continues, we will break through $100,000 sooner or later.

A friend asked why altcoins did not rebound. To be honest, I don’t pay much attention to the altcoin market. Maybe only the stronger altcoins have rebounded, but I know a general trend. Bitcoin must rise to a psychological price, that is, from about $100,000, many people will choose to sell Bitcoin and turn to the altcoin market to seek greater returns. According to the flow of funds in the cryptocurrency cycle, the next stage will be after Ethereum becomes strong. Both Bitcoin and altcoins are still in the final accumulation stage. After entering the fourth quarter of this year, the price of Bitcoin will move upward rapidly. Of course, we also know that the total market value of altcoins will peak 547 days after the halving, and it is just the beginning at this stage.

As the price of Bitcoin rebounded by nearly $3,000, the panic in the market has eased somewhat. We see that the Fear and Greed Index has returned to the neutral range, which is neither so bullish nor so bearish. Bitcoin has been falling almost throughout June. We have experienced miners' selling, German and US government selling, and MT Gox's repayment of creditors further suppressed the market. The performance of the market in July has been good historically. At least we got off to a good start. The spot Bitcoin ETF saw large inflows last Friday, especially Blackrock's inflows increased. At present, Coinclass's data seems to have some abnormalities. In addition to GBTC seeing zero outflows, I have not seen more data. If you pay attention to Coinbase's premium index, you can see the worst level in 2024 at this stage, which means that the market sentiment at this stage is still relatively negative. The selling pressure brought by US investors is also obvious. The spot ETF market is now seeing a positive trend. Pay attention to whether such a trend will continue and gradually expand.

Futures market indicators show slightly different signals. The 30-day moving average of the funding rate of perpetual futures contracts has fallen from the highs seen in March, but is still well above zero, which has been the case for more than a year. That is to say, in the context of the Bitcoin bull market, futures bulls are still dominant overall. KO provided an interesting data. Since 2021, the proportion of Bitcoin's trading volume on weekends has been declining, and this trend has been further accelerated since the launch of the spot ETF. Currently, the proportion of Bitcoin's trading volume on weekends is at its lowest level in history in 2024, so the emergence of the spot Bitcoin ETF has accelerated the gap in trading volume between weekdays and weekends. Speaking of weekends, we also reported an important news, that is, there is a high probability that the Ethereum ETF will not be approved this week, but it has been postponed to July 8, or later. The SEC now requires institutions to revise the SE documents again, which has been postponed to July 8. There are also more conservative views that it will be approved at the end of July or some time in the summer.