VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, confirmed speculation that the firm's Solana spot ETF proposal bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidency.
VanEck's filing deadline is set for March 2025, which would be well past the US Presidential election in November.
Sigel simply replied:
💬 “Can confirm.”
Analysts said the approval rate for each ETF is “close to zero” if a Democratic victory puts Joe Biden in power and “better… but not guaranteed” if Trump wins the election. Trump will likely appoint a new SEC chairman to replace the agency's current chairman, Gary Gensler.
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Another issue seen as a stumbling block for a potential Solana ETF is the lack of a futures market on CME, which experts believe is a key factor in getting the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs given the regulatory green light.
Grayscale notably argued in its case against the SEC that the custodial sharing arrangements applicable to CME Bitcoin futures could be replicated for the proposed spot ETF and were sufficient for detection as well as prevent fraudulent activities.
The company claims that the SEC has not provided a reasonable explanation for treating spot Bitcoin ETFs differently from futures ETFs in terms of custodial sharing arrangements.
The case essentially hinges on whether the SEC's requirement for a specific custodial sharing agreement for a spot Bitcoin ETF is reasonable and whether the SEC applies its standards consistently across Are there different types of Bitcoin-related ETFs?
Since the SEC has now approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Sigel believes that VanEck will not need to prove the CME futures market around Solana to get its ETF. He previously stated:
💬 “Custody-sharing agreement with spot crypto exchanges could reduce demand for CME futures.”
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