From the perspective of the market as a whole, although Bitcoin and Ethereum brought about an increase, the proportion of altcoins decreased because altcoins did not follow the increase in time. This will be regarded as the market's risk preference being conservative. To put it bluntly, altcoin traders are still waiting for bullish signals. The simple increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum did not bring about altcoin buying effects.
Although the leading stocks have risen, the copycat stocks have not followed suit. The market is still unclear about the expected trend for this week. Although the bulls are beginning to emerge, it still depends on whether the opening of the U.S. stock market will bring positive results. At the same time, the game between the large and small non-farm data this week will also continue the heated discussion on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once or twice.
However, the ETF, which is potentially beneficial to Ethereum, has gradually brought back funds from the United States, which is a good thing.
Bitcoin is undergoing a convalescent adjustment. There will not be a sharp rise in the short term, nor will there be the possibility of a sharp fall. I mean a fall below 58,000. So according to the current status, at the 2-hour level, if it stands above 63,700 again, it will continue to rise in the short term. Otherwise, it will continue to adjust and fluctuate.
Since July, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, rising to around $64,000 at one point. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has also turned from fear to neutral. Is the market getting better?
There are many signs pointing to a bullish July for the Bitcoin market. Here are three of the main signs:
1. Bitcoin spot ETF fund inflows have recovered: last Friday's net inflow was US$73 million, the highest single-day inflow in two weeks.
2. Historical data: Bitcoin's median return in July was 9.6%, and the trend usually shows strong rebounds, especially after the negative return in June.
3. Options Trading Desk: The capital flow from Friday to the end of the month is positioned to rise, probably because the market expects the Ethereum spot ETF to be officially listed.
Data shows that from 2013 to 2023, the return rate of Bitcoin in July every year is mostly positive. If the return rate in June is negative, the return rate in July will end with a positive value.
When the bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox announced that it would start paying out in July, a large number of excess open positions were liquidated, which helped improve the market situation. In addition, between May and June, the spot and futures trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum on global exchanges fell from $90 billion to $75 billion, so liquidity may improve.
The token unlocking plans of a large number of altcoins remain a market concern. According to data from the token unlocking platform, it is estimated that there are still tokens worth US$58 billion to be unlocked this year, while the current market value of stablecoins is only US$162 billion, and there may not be enough new funds to help absorb these selling pressures.
Binance announced that it will add more tokens to the watch tag list. The tokens added to the watch tag list are as follows: (BAL) (CTXC) (CVP) (CVX) (DOCK) (HARD) (IRIS) (MBL) (POLS) (SNT) (SUN). Do not add positions to these tokens that have just been added to the watch area in the short term. (MLN) and (ZEN) will be removed from the watch tag list.
When planning a project at present, we should not only consider the true value of the project and the investors, but also the market value and total market value. For projects whose opening market value and total market value are seriously inflated, we should try to avoid them. In the current market, there are too many projects and too few leeks. If you want to make money, do more research and don’t get carried away!
The SEC has approved the 19b-4 application of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF, which also holds BTC, ETH
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US is a cryptocurrency index fund jointly launched by Hashdex and Nasdaq. Hashdex is a company focusing on digital asset management.
What does it mean that the two parties jointly launched an ETF for cryptocurrency funds?
1. At this time, the institution applied for a new ETF again, and included BTC/ETH, indicating that ETH is basically certain to be approved.
2. Institutions are optimistic about the crypto market and are rushing to get a piece of the pie.
3. Once the agency's application is approved and the ETF is successfully issued, there will be more and more ETFs related to the cryptocurrency field in the future. The United States is an economy dominated by financial capital. It has the largest number of financial fields and financial derivatives in the world, and more ways to play (refer to various ETFs in the stock and other fields). Therefore, there will be more and more ETFs related to the crypto market in the future.
4. In the long run, more and more ETFs in the crypto market are a good thing, as they increase the influence of the crypto field. However, in the stage when the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates or loosen monetary policy, there are too many varieties of ETFs in the short term, which will inevitably divert funds from the ETF field. Then the liquidity of BTC/ETH spot ETFs will be weakened.
Judging from this, it is estimated that after ETH's ETF, similar ETFs will also be passed smoothly.
Currently, most people are negatively affected by the recent unlocking information and the screen is flooded with messages. I have always felt that unlocking is not the core factor affecting the trend. What affects the trend is always the market conditions. When the market conditions get better, the market will also be pulled up. This was the case for many copycat stocks in the first half of the year.
The market has been bad in the past few months, so the price will fall even if it is not unlocked. Not all coins will be sold after unlocking, but retail investors will be immediately kicked off the market, so we see that the coins unlocked on the same day will fall sharply. I think at least half of them are chips thrown away by retail investors.
The number and amount of capital of retail investors holding copycats in this round far exceeds any other cycle. After several months of major cleansing of copycats, many people are now experiencing an explosion of negative emotions. Everyone feels bad about the decline in the market.
There is a high probability that there will be a strong rebound in July. In the short term, the price below 60,000 is an opportunity to increase the BTC spot position in batches. According to the trend of the last bull market, we are currently looking at the market trend in the next few months! The highlight is in the fourth quarter, so please wait patiently, the bull market will definitely come, and hold on to the chips in your hands!
From the perspective of the market as a whole, although Bitcoin and Ethereum brought about an increase, the proportion of altcoins decreased because altcoins did not follow the increase in time. This will be regarded as the market's risk preference being conservative. To put it bluntly, altcoin traders are still waiting for bullish signals. The simple increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum did not bring about altcoin buying effects.
Although the leading stocks have risen, the copycat stocks have not followed suit. The market is still unclear about the expected trend for this week. Although the bulls are beginning to emerge, it still depends on whether the opening of the U.S. stock market will bring positive results. At the same time, the game between the large and small non-farm data this week will also continue the heated discussion on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once or twice.
However, the ETF, which is potentially beneficial to Ethereum, has gradually brought back funds from the United States, which is a good thing.
Bitcoin is undergoing a convalescent adjustment. There will not be a sharp rise in the short term, nor will there be the possibility of a sharp fall. I mean a fall below 58,000. So according to the current status, at the 2-hour level, if it stands above 63,700 again, it will continue to rise in the short term. Otherwise, it will continue to adjust and fluctuate.
Since July, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, rising to around $64,000 at one point. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has also turned from fear to neutral. Is the market getting better?
There are many signs pointing to a bullish July for the Bitcoin market. Here are three of the main signs:
1. Bitcoin spot ETF fund inflows have recovered: last Friday's net inflow was US$73 million, the highest single-day inflow in two weeks.
2. Historical data: Bitcoin's median return in July was 9.6%, and the trend usually shows strong rebounds, especially after the negative return in June.
3. Options Trading Desk: The capital flow from Friday to the end of the month is positioned to rise, probably because the market expects the Ethereum spot ETF to be officially listed.
Data shows that from 2013 to 2023, the return rate of Bitcoin in July every year is mostly positive. If the return rate in June is negative, the return rate in July will end with a positive value.
When the bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox announced that it would start paying out in July, a large number of excess open positions were liquidated, which helped improve the market situation. In addition, between May and June, the spot and futures trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum on global exchanges fell from $90 billion to $75 billion, so liquidity may improve.
The token unlocking plans of a large number of altcoins remain a market concern. According to data from the token unlocking platform, it is estimated that there are still tokens worth US$58 billion to be unlocked this year, while the current market value of stablecoins is only US$162 billion, and there may not be enough new funds to help absorb these selling pressures.
Binance announced that it will add more tokens to the watch tag list. The tokens added to the watch tag list are as follows: (BAL) (CTXC) (CVP) (CVX) (DOCK) (HARD) (IRIS) (MBL) (POLS) (SNT) (SUN). Do not add positions to these tokens that have just been added to the watch area in the short term. (MLN) and (ZEN) will be removed from the watch tag list.
When planning a project at present, we should not only consider the true value of the project and the investors, but also the market value and total market value. For projects whose opening market value and total market value are seriously inflated, we should try to avoid them. In the current market, there are too many projects and too few leeks. If you want to make money, do more research and don’t get carried away!
The SEC has approved the 19b-4 application of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF, which also holds BTC, ETH
Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US is a cryptocurrency index fund jointly launched by Hashdex and Nasdaq. Hashdex is a company focusing on digital asset management.
What does it mean that the two parties jointly launched an ETF for cryptocurrency funds?
1. At this time, the institution applied for a new ETF again, and included BTC/ETH, indicating that ETH is basically certain to be approved.
2. Institutions are optimistic about the crypto market and are rushing to get a piece of the pie.
3. Once the agency's application is approved and the ETF is successfully issued, there will be more and more ETFs related to the cryptocurrency field in the future. The United States is an economy dominated by financial capital. It has the largest number of financial fields and financial derivatives in the world, and more ways to play (refer to various ETFs in the stock and other fields). Therefore, there will be more and more ETFs related to the crypto market in the future.
4. In the long run, more and more ETFs in the crypto market are a good thing, as they increase the influence of the crypto field. However, in the stage when the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates or loosen monetary policy, there are too many varieties of ETFs in the short term, which will inevitably divert funds from the ETF field. Then the liquidity of BTC/ETH spot ETFs will be weakened.
Judging from this, it is estimated that after ETH's ETF, similar ETFs will also be passed smoothly.
Currently, most people are negatively affected by the recent unlocking information and the screen is flooded with messages. I have always felt that unlocking is not the core factor affecting the trend. What affects the trend is always the market conditions. When the market conditions get better, the market will also be pulled up. This was the case for many copycat stocks in the first half of the year.
The market has been bad in the past few months, so the price will fall even if it is not unlocked. Not all coins will be sold after unlocking, but retail investors will be immediately kicked off the market, so we see that the coins unlocked on the same day will fall sharply. I think at least half of them are chips thrown away by retail investors.
The number and amount of capital of retail investors holding copycats in this round far exceeds any other cycle. After several months of major cleansing of copycats, many people are now experiencing an explosion of negative emotions. Everyone feels bad about the decline in the market.
There is a high probability that there will be a strong rebound in July. In the short term, the price below 60,000 is an opportunity to increase the BTC spot position in batches. According to the trend of the last bull market, we are currently looking at the market trend in the next few months! The highlight is in the fourth quarter, so please wait patiently, the bull market will definitely come, and hold on to the chips in your hands!