On June 28, the US announced that the PCE personal consumption expenditure index was 2.6% in May, while in April it was 2.7%, a decrease of 0.1%.
This is the FED's favorite inflation measure, which could cause the FED to cut interest rates earlier this year.
In fact, this number is decreasing, it will not show a decrease in inflation like the crowd is chasing the index, US inflation has not decreased after this 0.1% number.
To quote you more clearly, according to a report by the Financial Times (quite a reputable site in the US), they announced the following:
" US shoppers tighen their belts in a most unlikely place : The grocery store"
"Consumers are tightening their spending in an unexpected place: convenience grocery stores."
That means consumption decreased, inflation decreased, but "No", American consumption decreased, but increased sharply elsewhere, that is, they bought a large amount of goods online, cheaper than buying directly.
As of May, US inflation decreased to 2.6%, the target is still 2%. On July 31, there will be another vote to establish the decision to cut interest rates or not.
Personally, I expect that interest rates will be cut in September, because it coincides with the last quarter of the year. This cut will create resources for year-end consumption to increase very well. Because every year, the last quarter is always the quarter where spending increases for major festivals, stimulating GDP consumption.
Crypto after September will take advantage of the good news of interest rate cuts and increase quite strongly.
On June 28, Financial Times also wrote an article "Why the FED must change how it targets inflation", explaining why the FED now uses PCE to measure inflation. The following article will be published on the Macro Channel. detailed issues for you to understand better.