Investors and market analysts had high expectations for the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed approval by requiring further changes to the S-1 forms. This decision created uncertainty on a clear timeline, and the SEC set July 8 as a new submission deadline, making mid- or late-July a more realistic expectation for the potential launch.
SEC's Position and Market Sentiment
According to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the approval process for Ethereum ETFs is progressing, albeit slowly. While this delay has created some fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the Ethereum market, experts such as ETFstore President Nate Geraci have noted that the requested revisions are relatively minor. Trading is expected to begin within 14-21 days following resubmission, which could provide significant support to Ether prices if ETFs are approved.
MiCA Regulation in the European Union
June 30 is the date when the European Union's comprehensive Markets in Cryptocurrency Regulation (MiCA) comes into force. This groundbreaking regulation aims to regulate crypto trading across the EU and sets an important precedent. However, a study by Acuiti and Eventus shows that 91% of affected firms are not fully prepared for MiCA's requirements. This could have a far-reaching impact, especially for companies that do not comply with the new regulations.
Long-Term Implications for Crypto Market Stability
While MiCA's immediate entry into force may cause market disruptions and operational hurdles, its long-term vision is to provide greater market stability and protect investors. This safer environment could attract more institutional investors into the crypto space, strengthen the structure of the market, and increase operational transparency.
Inferences from the FOMC Meeting Minutes
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on July 3. These minutes will reveal the Fed's stance on interest rate adjustments and economic policy directions. In particular, the Fed appears to be taking a cautious approach to interest rate changes. Board Member Michelle Bowman suggests that interest rate cuts are unlikely before 2025, despite some declines in inflation rates.
Potential Impacts on Cryptocurrency Markets
If the FOMC minutes indicate aggressive monetary policies, it could negatively affect the cryptocurrency market and reduce the demand for risky assets. Conversely, signals of stable or dovish policies could boost investor sentiment and support crypto prices in the short term.
US Labor Market Data: An Important Economic Indicator
This week, comprehensive U.S. labor market data will be closely watched and provide insight into employment trends. Important disclosures include:
Job Postings (July 2): May data estimates there are 7.860 million job openings, trailing April's figure of 8.059 million. Significant deviations in these figures could increase or ease inflation concerns, which could impact crypto market behavior.
Employment Report (July 5): 195,000 new jobs are expected to be created in June, compared to 272,000 in May. These figures will be important indicators of economic health and will influence investor sentiment.
Unemployment Rate (July 5): The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0%, any significant changes could alter expectations for economic stability and future Fed policy actions.
Hourly Wages (July 5): Expected to rise 0.3% in June, down from 0.4% in May, this metric will be watched closely for signs of inflation.
US Trade Deficit Data and Market Implications
US trade deficit data for May will be released on July 3 and may provide additional economic information. April data showed an 8.7% increase in the trade deficit, reaching $74.6 billion. While widening the trade deficit could increase economic concerns and deter high-risk investments, narrowing the deficit could boost investor confidence and have a positive impact on crypto markets.
Statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the European Central Bank Central Banking Forum held in Sintra, Portugal, on July 2. His participation in this high-profile panel focused on monetary policy through economic transformation will provide valuable insights. These discussions, along with statements from other influential figures such as ECB President Christine Lagarde and New York Fed President John Williams, could provide important signals about future monetary policy directions.
Changes in Global Economic Policies
Powell's comments on inflation trends, the economic impact of geopolitical events, and broader monetary policy could have significant impacts on global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Market participants will be monitoring these discussions closely to adjust their strategies accordingly.
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