Whether it is the selling pressure caused by the miners or the Mt.Gox compensation, we believe that the impact on the crypto market is short-term and limited. The experience of the past decade has told us that despite many challenges, as the most solid consensus in the crypto market, the Bitcoin ecosystem has always had strong market resilience and elasticity. Therefore, short-term selling pressure will not change the long-term trend, but will enhance the adaptability of the Bitcoin ecosystem to large-scale flows. Compared with short-term selling pressure, what should be paid more attention to at present is the "dismal" situation of Bitcoin on-chain transactions and liquidity.

Although Bitcoin has performed poorly recently, it has still achieved a positive return of more than 40% since the beginning of the year, far exceeding most of the targets in the traditional financial market. However, after setting a record high in March, the transaction volume of the Bitcoin network has continued to decline. On the one hand, this is due to the decline in the popularity of inscriptions and runes, which has led to a decrease in trading demand. On the other hand, in the current price range, neither short-term speculators nor long-term investors have strong trading demand, and the on-chain turnover rate has always remained at a low level.

The number of active addresses on the chain has also dropped sharply since March. The number of active addresses is now less than 70w, which has fallen by more than 30% from the peak in 2024 and is almost the same as the same period in 2018.

In addition to the sluggish on-chain transactions, the recent performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs has also been relatively weak. As the main channel for the crypto market to obtain external liquidity in the current cycle, Bitcoin spot ETFs are also an important carrier to support the optimistic sentiment in the future market. Previously, JPMorgan Chase estimated that the net inflow of funds in the crypto market this year reached US$12 billion, of which the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was about US$16 billion. To learn more about the logic of cryptocurrency investment, please visit my homepage! 🌟

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