After asset management giant VanEck applied for the Solana ETF to the U.S. SEC on the 27th, people seemed to be very optimistic about the potential for SOL to rise in the future. SR Markets assesses the impact of the potential Solana spot ETF on SOL prices. The institution refers to the impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF on Bitcoin, pointing out that the price of Bitcoin has pushed up from US$27,000 in October to approximately US$63,000 now, an increase of 2.3 times. , so take this 2.3 times as the benchmark.

GSR Markets considered the following three scenarios to estimate inflows into the Solana Spot ETF relative to Bitcoin:

Bear market scenario: Solana’s global investment product assets under management (AUM) are only 2% of Bitcoin’s. Base case: Evaluate Solana's performance using actual inflows from 2021 to 2023. Over the past three years, the cumulative inflow of Solana investment products relative to Bitcoin was 5%. Optimistic Scenario (Blue Sky): Over the past two years, Solana’s relative inflows have improved significantly, accounting for 31% and 9% of Bitcoin inflows in 2022 and 2023 respectively. GSR Markets puts an annual average of 14% over these three years. Relative fund inflows as an optimistic scenario.

The agency then also took into consideration the market value of Solana relative to Bitcoin, and pointed out after a comprehensive assessment:

Under the bear market scenario, SOL may increase by 1.4 times; under the base case, it may increase by 3.4 times; under the optimistic scenario, SOL may increase by 8.9 times. Since the SOL price is currently at $145, this suggests that GSR Markets believes SOL could rise to $1,290.

In addition, GSR Markets also stated that the potential impact on SOL may be higher than these estimates because, unlike BTC, SOL is active in staking and decentralized applications, and considering the low expectations for the Solana spot ETF in the current SOL price, This suggests that SOL's potential upside may be greater. #SolanaETF