Last night, there was a sudden good news! Is there a chance of a rate cut?
Just last night, the United States released the PCE core price index for May. Before the release, I reminded everyone that the expected value was 2.6%. Lower than expected is good news, and higher than expected is bad news. Fortunately, the data released was exactly 2.6%, which was in line with expectations.
After the data was released, the Fed's expectations for rate cuts increased. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in August was 89.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 10.3%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged by September is 34.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 59.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.4%.
However, judging from the recent statements of many Fed officials, there is still uncertainty about whether there will be a rate cut this year.
The Fed's goal is to keep inflation below 2%, which is still slightly higher than this number. Moreover, if inflation remains stable or declines slowly, interest rates will need to remain at a higher level for a longer period of time.
For the trend of Bitcoin, the interest rate cut is only one of the factors affecting it. If the Mentougou incident is really compensated, the selling pressure will still be considerable; Bitcoin spot ETF funds, Grayscale and Fidelity have both had a net outflow of a lot of coins recently; in terms of stablecoins, the current stablecoins of the exchange have fallen to the lowest value in February, that is, although Bitcoin broke a new high in March, the amount of funds in the market has not increased.
During this period, the overall market is in a "chaotic" state, watch more and operate less, control the position not more than 50%, and wait for a big opportunity before taking action.