Regarding certainty in trading, it is a relative concept!

Have you ever played Landlord? You don’t know what cards your opponent will play, but 4 points is always better than 3 points, and the king bomb is always better than 2222.

The life of a person who can see the essence in one second and one who cannot see the essence in his entire life are completely different!

This is the micro uncertainty and macro certainty in the same event! Micro uncertainty requires tolerance and coping; macro certainty requires faith and perseverance.

In trading, we have been chasing certainty, thinking that only with certainty can we feel safe and at peace. Indeed!

Sadly, we often focus our attention on finding, delving into, and pursuing microscopic certainties without realizing it.

The pursuit of micro-certainty such as "Kuafu chasing the sun", "a dog biting its tail", and "flowers in the mirror and moon in the water" is nothing but a self-righteous illusion!

We need to understand that in trading, apart from looking for the probabilistic advantage (macro certainty) of the strategy, we can do nothing about the market.

There is no way to be responsible for the results of a single transaction. Only by understanding that profitable transactions come from the losses that we usually encounter, avoiding losses is equivalent to avoiding profits! At this time, profits are no longer profits, but only income; losses are no longer losses, but only costs.

If we give up our profits after paying multiple costs, we will end up with an overall loss. While we avoid losses, we may also give up potential profits; and if we give up profits, it is definitely not just a matter of not making money. Because if we cannot use inevitable profits to hedge inevitable losses, then we can only end up with losses.

Don't worry about single results, stay on top of the strategy and keep a global perspective.

Any market participant will experience ups and downs. The trading methods used by anyone are based on probability. There is no one who can understand the market, otherwise the market will lose the foundation for its existence!

In my opinion, each specific trading method should have its own risk prevention strategy. Risk prevention strategy is essentially a cost.

Taking the stop-loss strategy as an example, this kind of thinking is to treat "possible errors" as errors, which may lead to the side effect of "accidental killing".

This side effect will psychologically lead to fear of stop loss and form a "fear of mistakes complex". In fact, if someone can avoid making any mistakes in trading, the whole world will soon belong to him! It is not shameful to make mistakes, but it is the most shameful to not dare to face mistakes and avoid them!

You should know that the threshold of the stop-loss strategy is quite high. My experience shows that more than half of the stop-losses are usually ineffective, and more than half of the open positions will result in stop-loss.

But those who don't stop losses will eventually die, sooner or later! Some people say, "I only do money management and don't do any stop losses." Although money management is essential and indispensable, there is no need to myth about "money management." Money management can only transform the disadvantages of the trading system, but it cannot eliminate them at all. No money management strategy can beat probability.

There are not many ways to trade, so why is it so difficult to learn trading? If you categorize all trading techniques, there are only a few core ideas. If you only want to learn one of them, you can graduate in a short time.

In my opinion, the reason why the road to trading is so long is entirely because of the road of no return between "combination" and "optimization". The so-called optimization is to find the best parameters (formula) for the trading techniques with the same core thinking. The so-called combination is to combine the trading techniques with different core thinking.

Trading technology is definitely not a magic weapon that the more the better. On the contrary, every trading technology has its side effects.

If you can really understand that technical analysis is a product based on probability, and that the superposition of probabilities is not only the superposition of advantages but also the superposition of disadvantages, then you will understand that the more analysis methods there are, the better, and that comprehensive analysis is far from achieving the desired effect.

The "barrel theory" is similar to this. The more complex your barrel is, the more likely it is to have shorter wood. In fact, trading is exactly the same. A successful transaction requires the correct opening, holding, exiting, and fund management. If there is a problem in any of these links, the transaction may fail in the end.

If a successful transaction requires many links, and each link requires (relies on) a variety of trading techniques to complete, then there are more possibilities for problems in your trading behavior, and the probability of failure will be greater. The success or failure of a transaction does not depend on how big your biggest advantage is, but on how big your biggest disadvantage is. I always advocate that trading should be simple rather than cumbersome, because trading is a "loser's game."

History is certain, but the future is uncertain. At the same time, no matter what the final result of the future is, we can use the history that has been determined to make a reasonable explanation. However, no matter what, we can't use the history that has been fixed to predict the outcome of the future. Simply put, rationality after the fact does not mean knowing in advance. Or it can also be understood as "the same cause may produce different results". No matter what kind of analysis method you use, the same cause may produce different results. In my opinion, whether a trader can make a profit in the long run depends largely on how to deal with this uncertainty.

Regarding trading, unlike other areas with strong certainty, there is no perfect fixed model that everyone can master and make a profit. The market trend is uncertain and there is no perfect processing standard.

A real transaction is actually to generate your own "imperfect" processing standards after a lot of trade-offs in uncertainty, and then execute them consistently.

It is a complete system with each link connected to the next. If any link is taken out alone, there will be huge logical loopholes.

Therefore, most of the time, arguments about a single aspect of a trading system are meaningless.

Every link in the trading system is inseparable. The formulation of every detail contains the trader's personality traits, mental journey, and growth experience. Behind every decision, there may be deep insights and decisive choices.

Therefore, what we see is a simple trading system, but we cannot see the experience behind it. We don’t know what he gave up, what kind of difficult choices he went through, and what kind of investment beliefs he holds.

Everything in this world can be taught, except for two things that can only be felt by oneself: love and trading. You can't explain the feeling of love to a child, nor can you teach him the skills of love. In fact, trading is no different.

Knowing is easy but doing is difficult is not true knowledge, so in essence it is still difficult to know but easy to do.

Trading itself is also a game of lonely king!

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

Please don’t envy anyone. The key to profitable trading is to stick to your own “Tao”.

I spent a few days in seclusion, cutting off all contact with the outside world and putting myself in a state of isolation again. This "isolation" without any need to have any relationship with the outside world made me feel calm and peaceful, and I could come and go freely.

I only wish to live my life in the ordinary and bland way I like, with a clear conscience and no confusion in emotions. That would be good enough. #币安合约锦标赛