U.S. inflation data:

According to reference article 1, in April 2024, although the inflation in the United States fell slightly from the previous month, it was still higher than the previous month. The CPI index increased by 3.36% year-on-year, and the core CPI (excluding food and energy) index increased by 3.63% year-on-year. This shows that the inflation problem in the United States is relatively sticky, and the inflation situation is still severe in the short term.

However, the CPI data in May cooled down more than expected, which laid an important foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates this year. This shows that the inflation situation may be gradually improving, providing the possibility for the Fed to cut interest rates.

Reasons for the Fed's interest rate cut: The Fed did not take a policy change at the interest rate meeting in June 2024, but the dot plot revised the number of interest rate cuts this year from 3 to 1, and the long-term policy interest rate expectations were also revised up. This shows that the Fed has adjusted its future monetary policy path and the possibility of interest rate cuts has increased. The reasons for the Fed's interest rate cut may include improved inflation expectations, slowing economic growth, and stable demand in the financial market. Against the backdrop of gradually improving inflation, the Fed may stimulate economic growth and maintain financial market stability by cutting interest rates.

Stock index futures rose: On June 26, 2024, stock index futures rose across the board, with the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) rising by 3.36%. This shows that investors are optimistic about the future trend of the stock market and market confidence has increased. The rise in stock index futures may be related to a variety of factors, including improved inflation data, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and expectations of economic recovery. Under the combined effect of these factors, investors are optimistic about the future trend of the stock market, driving stock index futures up.

In summary, the improvement in US inflation data may have strengthened the reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while the rise in stock index futures reflects investors' optimistic expectations for the future stock market.

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