As the 2024 US presidential election gets underway, media attention is growing on voters who may decide which candidate to support based on their digital asset policies . Former President Donald Trump is doing his best to appeal to this group of voters with a recent post on Truth Social calling on “all #Bitcoin The rest will be MADE IN THE USA!!!” He is also considering appearing at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, at the end of July, according to Axios .
Trump is leaning into the issue, a significant shift from his first term as president, when he described cryptocurrencies as "not money" and "based on nothing" in a social media post . His advocacy for digital assets has quickly made him popular among cryptocurrency advocates, who often feel at odds with the Biden administration.
President Joe Biden has favored a more speculative stance on the industry, and many of his regulators see him as opposed to digital assets. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler is the most public face of this concern, as his agency frequently clashes with major industry members and has filed lawsuits against some of these businesses. A second Biden term could mean another four years of skepticism and enforcement actions, even if Gensler leaves the SEC.
The big question for Trump, however, is whether this strategy will be successful in November's election. A poll commissioned by the Blockchain Association found that 20% of voters “in battleground states see cryptocurrency as a major issue in the 2024 election.” Additionally, political scientist Grant Ferguson has found that the demographics of cryptocurrency users tend to align with swing voters.
However, there is reason to be skeptical that this group will determine the election outcome. Trump can certainly win in the minority, which will be important in a tight election. However, the Blockchain Association poll may be overstating the number of voters who will decide their vote primarily based on the candidates' cryptocurrency policies.
Additionally, with only a handful of states having the ability to decide the winner of the election, focusing on crypto users in these states will provide a better understanding of how decisive this bloc is. . In the Rust Belt, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all below the national average for cryptocurrency adoption, based on an analysis of 2020 tax return data from the Internal Revenue Service published on the daily cover of Forbes recently . A similar pattern is seen in Coinbase's "United States of Crypto," which lists all three states outside the top 20 with the highest percentage of the population owning cryptocurrency.
According to 538's presidential election model , these three states are among the most likely key points for the 2024 election. Based on current polls, Biden likely needs to win win in these states to continue to stay in the White House. This makes the electoral value of these states beyond doubt. However, the value of crypto voters in these states appears to be relatively low compared to other groups of potential swing voters.
Even if digital asset policy is not the deciding issue in this year's election, it could still be the winner. Republicans generally have a more favorable view of the industry and are more supportive of laws and regulations at the federal level to promote cryptocurrency adoption. The Republican sweep would give businesses the ability to gain the regulatory clarity they have pushed for in recent years, especially from regulators. Passing legislation through Congress – such as the market structure and stablecoin bills introduced in the House this year – could still be difficult as 60 votes are needed in the Senate. However, a significant change in stance would benefit the digital asset industry even though the legislation may not be a top priority in the next presidential administration.
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