Bitcoin moved within the range of 60606 -62389 during the day
At the time of writing the Review, the price of Bitcoin was 61582
Market capitalization 2.23 trillion, dominance index 54.33%, fear index 47
Economic data came out yesterday within expectations; except that orders for goods produced in the United States fell, although an increase was expected. But this is not bad for the market, as it increases the likelihood of an early Fed rate cut.
The results of bank stress tests, which the Federal Reserve recently published, are in the same favor.
According to these tests, even the largest banks could experience a severe downturn in their economy. It is clear that in smaller regional banks the problems are even more significant.
The probability of a rate cut on September 18, 2024 has not yet changed. Apparently, the market is waiting for today's data on the PCE Price index (15-30 Moscow time).
But Fed Speaker Raphael Bostic, who spoke yesterday, is already demonstrating more adequate rhetoric - he says that everything is going in the right direction, a rate cut is expected in the 4th quarter of this year, and 4 cuts in 2025.
I think that this year the rate will be lowered faster and more than expected. 0.5% minimum.
Bitcoin demonstrates stability and minimal volatility. I couldn’t take 62500 - that’s bad. Recently, for the same long time, he could not take first 72K, then 70K, then 66500, and then 64500.
But at the same time he does not fall. It didn’t even reach my order for 60588. Despite the rise in the dollar index, which is approaching 106, and different stories about the German and US governments selling Bitcoin. And about old wallets that supposedly move it to exchanges. Yes and on mt. GOX has not been canceled yet.
The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is at minimums. Apparently, a long stay in the range greatly reduced the number of deer. Although this is not surprising.
Exactly the same picture was from May to August 2020 (range 9000-10500), the situation from May to August 2021 (range 31000-40000), or the situation from March to October 2023 (range 26000-30000).
Now it’s the same, only between 60,000 and 70,000 (with exits for a short time a little lower and a little higher). And in the same way, in a year we will be tired of Bitcoin in the range between the psychological level of 100,000 and 110,000-112,000, which it cannot break through. ).
Alts are stable, the Bitcoin dominance index has declined further. The main positive is the imminent launch of ETH-ETF (possible next week), and the preparation of ETF on Solana (this will not be soon, but the fact is positive).
For further growth, a decrease in the dollar index is necessary (to begin with, below 105 at least), and an information occasion.
And this is inevitable in the very near future. The option “go below 60K first” does not cancel this in any way.
From the news:
- Bolivia, after the suppression of the coup (what it was and why - I told here), lifted the ban on cryptocurrency trading and payments for financial institutions.
- Biden demonstrated the wonders of modern pharmacology at the debate. I managed to stand on my feet, was cheerful and even cursed. But his cognitive function let him down and he lost the debate (data from a CNN viewer survey)
Plus, the close-up of his face is reminiscent of zombie movies).
It is very likely that he will be removed from the elections, as he assumed at the beginning of the year.
Priority option for today: Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit at 59000-58500 and an upper limit at 62400-62500
Alternative - consolidation above 62500