Trading is essentially a business, a job.

You don’t need to pretend to be “accurate”, just about right is enough.

If you need to win every time, and win accurately, what stage are you in?

The stage of “can’t afford to lose”.

For a small company to grow, it is not only the right direction, but also luck is really important. Even if you don’t even know the direction, but you are lucky enough to complete a project, you can still survive for a while, but this survivor bias will leave troubles. There are many contingencies.

Small companies have limited resources, let alone multiple projects, it may be difficult to go two lines, so if the leader is determined to do a project, it is almost certain that he will die if he fails.

This is the precise error. Even if the direction is right, but there are some minor problems in the project that are not handled well, the project will die, and this startup is likely to fail.

It’s different for big companies. Investing in ten projects may only have one or two returns in the end, but you can survive with these one or two. If the direction is right, five out of ten projects survive, you will make a lot of money.

This is the fuzzy correctness. In fact, you are not sure which project will succeed. Not only you don't know, everyone is also guessing. If you have faith, just stick to it for a little longer. That's the only difference.

"Vague is right, precise is wrong", do you understand now?

"The leader of a large company only needs to make 30% of the correct decisions to keep the company alive; the leader of a small company can ruin everything with one mistake"