Source: CoinWorld
Author: Cyber Melon Farmer
Quote: Federal Reserve: “Watch what I do this time.”
The melon farmers' writing style is casual and their words are spontaneous. This group of melon farmers are the first to show their IQ.
Recently, the market has been selling BTC continuously. First, Mt.Gox used BTC to repay debts, and then the German government sold BTC. Today, the United States jumped out and said, "I will just sell 4,000 BTC. It has no impact on the market."
Really no impact?
A series of coincidences at the right time
German Narrative 1:
Since the Russian-Ukrainian war, the EU has been dragged into the Ukraine rotten ship by the United States. Due to military pressure from Russia, Germany plans to restore the conscription system on May 13 and increase military spending to 3% of the national GDP. From a financial perspective, it is not easy for Germany, which has experienced the defeat and reparations in World War II, to achieve the 3% target. Therefore, Germany needs to find money.
But readers, don’t you think it’s a coincidence? The plan made in May was to sell at this time. If it was just Germany, it could be said to be an accidental incident, but what about Mt. Gox?
Mt. Gox Narrative 2:
With the recent series of BTC dumping news, everyone knows more or less about Mt.Gox. Here we will introduce you to the mysterious Mt.Gox that holds a large amount of BTC.
Mt.Gox, a BTC exchange from Tokyo, Japan, established in July 2010;
In 2011, Mt.Gox was wholly acquired by Tibanne Co.
In June of the same year, Mt.Gox was hacked and 2,000 BTC were stolen;
In 2012, Mark Karpelès, the founder of Tibanne Co, wanted to apply BTC as electronic cash to physical payments in Japan after experiencing a hacker-induced collapse.
But the interesting thing is that the BTC exchange from Japan, which needs to use BTC as a financial payment method, was seized by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. In June 2013, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security seized Mt. Gox’s Dwolla account on the grounds that Karpeles failed to register in the correct way.
After reading this, I wonder if you feel like you have been brainwashed by public opinion?
Here, the melon farmers raised three doubts:
1. The BTC Genesis Block was produced in 2009, and Japan had a BTC exchange in 2010. As BTC’s Pizza Day in the same year, 10,000 BTC could only be exchanged for one pizza. Melon farmers really cannot understand how the BTC exchange operated in 2010.
2. Even Ethereum was officially launched in 2015. As a company that controlled the world's largest BTC exchange as early as 2014, its founder Mark Karpelès and holding company Tibanne Co are unknown today.
3. 2,000 BTC were stolen that year, and now the plan is to repay 200,000 BTC? What’s the discrepancy?
Regarding Mt.Gox, I would like to mention one more thing: the United States? The U.S. Department of Homeland Security? It is hard not to associate it with the delicate relationship between Japan and the United States.
Crypto ETF Narrative Three:
I wonder if you have felt that this year's crypto bull market has turned into a bear market.
Taking Ethereum as an example, the approval of Ethereum spot ETF should be a gratifying event. The relevant crypto regulatory bills have been introduced, and the international mainstream finance has accepted the crypto market. Logically speaking, the Ethereum L2 ecosystem should be affected, or perform better, so as to reflect the value of the Ethereum ecosystem comprehensive ETF.
Interpreted from the perspective of ETF fund logic, Ethereum’s various sectors performed at the forefront, which comprehensively reflects the value of the ETF.
Check out the positives of Ethereum in 2024:
Ethereum technology upgrades, especially the implementation of the EIP-4844 proposal, will improve network efficiency and scalability.
With the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, traditional financial market investors have also shown interest in Ethereum. The inflow of funds should enhance the activity and value growth of the Ethereum ecosystem.
The introduction of Layer2 solutions has brought more possibilities for the active Ethereum ecosystem.
As the amount of Ethereum pledged increases, the amount of Ethereum circulating in the market decreases, and the price of remaining Ethereum naturally rises.
But looking at the value performance of Ethereum:
Has Ethereum violated the law?
Rate cut selling pressure narrative 4:
Here, in order to lay the foundation for the next section, I will not elaborate too much. Here is a picture for everyone to understand.
In just two months, 13.1 billion US dollars were released due to various reasons for selling. The whales are all dumping, so which retail investors will digest the 13.1 billion US dollars? In response, the US government said, "I will just sell 4,000 BTC, which will have no impact on the market."
But looking back at the series of events behind the scenes, melon farmers would never believe that there was no push from the United States.
US election and interest rate cut plan
The pictures I made are so beautiful, please take a look at them. I suggest you watch them repeatedly.
The US election in November this year is an international hot topic. The two elderly men in their seventies (Biden 82, Trump 76) are campaigning for the next US president in a variety of ways. In addition to digging up the dark history of each party to make everyone laugh, the crypto market has become a hot topic in this US presidential election.
The Power of Crypto in the US Election
According to statistics, as of 2024, there are already 20 million people using cryptocurrencies in the United States, accounting for about 14% of the population. Against this background, in the United States, a land that focuses on protecting human rights, protecting the security of residents' crypto assets has naturally become a hot topic.
From Trump, we can easily see the growing influence of the crypto market over the years.
Before 2021, Trump was against crypto assets during his administration, but today, in this US presidential election, Trump has shown obvious intimacy and support for crypto assets. He has made public statements many times saying that he likes what BTC mining companies are building, etc.
With the support of Trump, MEME coin, which has just emerged this year, has also performed well with the support of the US political background.
On the other hand, regardless of the right or wrong of Biden’s governing policies and style, under the advantage of Trump’s efforts to gain the power of crypto, Biden’s ruling party, which initially maintained a calm attitude towards the crypto market, has to show a close attitude towards the crypto market and topical crypto sectors such as MEME.
With the assistance of the two old men, the crypto market such as NFT, MEME, BTC and related mining companies have become more active than before.
Of course, the US election has become a cliché among crypto people, and it has been rehashed.
However, the melon farmers still want to point out that according to the consistent style of the US election, no matter who is elected in the end, they must fulfill the promises made to voters when they ran for president. This also laid the groundwork for the development of the crypto market in the next four years.
Interpretation of the U.S. interest rate cut plan
Based on market reactions, the Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates in the second half of this year.
To put it simply, a rate cut means that the interest on US dollars has been reduced. A product originally worth 100,000 yuan may need to be purchased at 110,000 or 120,000 yuan. This also means that there are more US dollars flowing in the market. For ordinary business owners, it means the depreciation of banknotes and the rise in prices. But for the US market, the outflow of a large number of US dollars can also stimulate the development of the market economy.
So where did the money from the interest rate cut go?
Of course it's the oligarchs and the whales! Or you and me?
This will be reflected in the crypto market. Combined with the previous article, with $13.1 billion in selling pressure, are the whales dumping? Who will take over the retail investors? If no one takes over, the price will naturally fall.
Since March 14, BTC has fluctuated between 70,000 and 60,000 many times, with each fluctuation period getting longer and longer, and the rising period seems to be only two or three days.
On the timeline, you can check the BTC K-line chart and the timeline given by the melon farmers. You can generally find the shadow of the whale crashing the market. So the question is, in the market that is crowned as a bull market in 2024, with so many positive factors, why is the market so fragmented?
How to give back to crypto power?
As mentioned in the previous article, no matter who is shortlisted and elected, he or she must eventually fulfill the promises made during the campaign.
Let’s look at this picture again.
If the chat record in the picture is true, the interest rate will be cut between September and November. The corresponding timeline means that the interest rate cut will end just before the US election. So let's make a bold guess, what will happen after the election?
In this US election, no matter which side you look at it from, the crypto market has contributed a lot. From the perspective of the crypto market carnival that started in November, the president is bound to give back to the crypto market. So how can we gain greater benefits from this fact that everyone knows?
From a capital perspective, buying low and selling high makes perfect sense.
What if the Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates after the US election?
At this stage, the market has begun to crash, with the United States as the first, and money will be released into the hands of oligarchs, which will bring the crypto market to a freezing point before the election.
After the election, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, tightened monetary policy, and the US dollar flowed back to the government. Who in the market still has money to invest in the crypto market? The oligarchs entered the market at rock-bottom prices, and the president fulfilled his campaign promises. It seemed to be a win-win situation for the oligarchs and the president.
What? You ask me who lost in this?
Look at the liquidation data.
