Market Overview
As concerns about higher bond yields and inflation are heating up, as well as concerns about China's unexpected economic slowdown and debt crisis, major global stock indexes have experienced three consecutive weeks of declines, with the S&P and Nasdaq recording their biggest declines since the banking crisis in March and the end of last year, respectively. After an extremely optimistic July, market sentiment now seems to have adjusted back to a neutral range, with data showing that some institutions are buying on dips in the past two weeks.
Stock Market
The S&P 500 Index fell more than 5% from the end of July, the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Russell 2000 Index fell nearly 7%, the CSI 300 Index fell 5.7%, the Hang Seng Index fell nearly 11%, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 5.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index fell relatively mildly. Despite this, since the beginning of the year, the stock market has risen by about 20%, so the correction so far is still within a healthy range and has not yet caused a significant deterioration in market sentiment.
The difference in decline is mainly due to the combined reflection of changes in investment styles, changes in interest rate and inflation environment, and earnings prospects.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is comprised primarily of large, stable, long-established companies. In an environment of inflation and rising interest rates, investors may be more inclined to invest in these defensive businesses. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is comprised primarily of technology and growth stocks, while the Russell 2000 is comprised primarily of small-cap stocks, which may appear riskier in the current environment. Growth stocks with high valuations, such as many Nasdaq components, may come under more pressure as rising capital costs could erode future earnings prospects. In contrast, many of the Dow's businesses may fare better in an inflationary environment as they may be able to more easily pass on cost increases to consumers.
In terms of industries, the biomedicine, communications services, and energy sectors performed well last week, while non-essential consumer goods such as automobiles, durable goods, and transportation and tourism sectors lagged behind.
Due to the overall decline, the correlation between stocks (0.15–0.18) and sectors (0.33–0.35) rebounded slightly:
Interest rate market
Supported by supply-side pressure and hot economic data, the US 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since October at 4.33% last Thursday, while the 1-12 month bond yield remained almost unchanged; in the UK, due to still strong inflation indicators and faster-than-expected wage growth, the UK 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.75% last week, the highest level since October 2008:
Concerns over China's worsening real estate crisis and its impact on the country's weakening economy also added to the negative sentiment.
Chinese real estate giant Evergrande Group filed for bankruptcy in New York late Thursday. Real estate woes are a major drag on the troubled Chinese economy. The news about Evergrande comes after another Chinese real estate giant, Country Garden, recently warned that it would lose billions of dollars in the first six months of the year. Moody's downgraded the company's rating, citing "increased liquidity and refinancing risks."
In general, the stock market's pullback reflects more of a repricing of interest rate and price expectations rather than a signal that the economy has completely lost momentum. In the past few months, the market has overly optimistically assessed the prospects of the economy in an environment of rising interest rates. The degree of economic surprise in Europe and the United States, as measured by the Citi Economic Surprise Index, has rebounded this summer, and macroeconomic momentum is still there:
Regarding the interest rate market, the rise in 10-year Treasury yields is not a signal that the Fed will further significantly raise interest rates in the future. The main reason is that the previous rise in long-term interest rates did not match the rise in short-term interest rates. The recent adjustment is not surprising, because either the short-term yield falls or the long-term yield rises. The bond market structure should not maintain long-term distortions. The Fed's interest rate hike expectations have come to an end, and marginal changes have limited impact on the interest rate market. In addition, it can be seen that the inversion of long-term and short-term bond yields has narrowed significantly since August, which can actually be regarded as a signal of a rebound in long-term economic growth expectations:
Exchange rate market
The dollar followed yields higher, with DXY hitting a two-month high last week. USD/JPY briefly rose to 146.2, the yen's lowest level since November last year, surpassing the area that triggered intervention by Japanese authorities in September and October last year. But Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said last week that authorities did not intervene in absolute currency levels.
The RMB fell below 7.3 last week, hitting its lowest level since October last year, but on Thursday and Friday, the exchange rate rebounded sharply due to the People's Bank of China's statement defending the RMB exchange rate and a sharp increase in the central parity rate, and USDCNY finally held at 7.28.
In the last three days of last week, the People's Bank of China set the onshore RMB/USD central parity rate at around 7.2, about 1,000 basis points higher than the market price. This is the largest defense of the RMB through the central parity guidance in recorded history. The RMB central parity rate is a reference point for transactions, and its range is limited between +2% and -2%. In theory, the People's Bank of China will take unlimited orders within this price range. In addition to raising the central parity rate, other sources said that state-owned banks directly sold US dollars and bought RMB in the foreign exchange market last week.
The People's Bank of China just cut interest rates last Monday, and more monetary and fiscal stimulus measures are on the way. The widening interest rate gap may lead to continued pressure on the depreciation of the RMB. However, mainstream institutions do not expect non-RMB currencies to continue to depreciate significantly from their current position.
For many years, China has been highly sensitive to any sharp fluctuations in the RMB, as the speculative attacks that accompanied the devaluation of the RMB eight years ago are still fresh in people's minds (the 811 exchange rate reform). At present, the market pessimism is rising, China is facing capital outflows, and the risk of a vicious cycle that may lead to a more serious devaluation exists, and the necessity of appropriate intervention is highlighted.
Trending
[Fed Survey: U.S. consumers' short-term inflation expectations hit a new low since 2021]
A survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed that consumers' one-year short-term inflation expectations fell from 3.8% to 3.5% in July, the lowest since April 2021 and the fourth consecutive month of decline. Consumers' inflation expectations for three-year and five-year periods also fell, both from 3% to 2.9%.
[Bank of Japan's service sector inflation reached 2% for the first time in 30 years in July]
The CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but the "core CPI" excluding energy and food rose 4.3% year-on-year, still the fastest since 1981.
[Fed minutes are hawkish: warn of significant upside risks to inflation, be wary of rising stock markets]
The minutes showed that most policymakers still believe that inflation has significant upside risks, which may require further rate hikes; many believe that even if interest rates are cut, the balance sheet may not stop shrinking; almost all policymakers believe that July is suitable for a 25 basis point rate hike, and two support keeping interest rates unchanged. Fed staff no longer expect a mild recession this year, and expect PCE inflation to fall to 2.2% in 2025.
At the July FOMC policy meeting, Fed staff pointed out that stock prices had generally risen, corporate bond spreads had narrowed, asset valuation pressures were "significant", and the risk assessment in May was "moderate"; they also named residential housing. and commercial property prices, calling it “high relative to fundamentals.” Fed policymakers also cited the danger that "commercial real estate valuations could fall significantly, which could have adverse effects on some banks and other financial institutions, such as insurance companies."
[After energy and food, signs of sticky inflation in the United States reappeared, and used car prices rose for the first time in four months]
According to statistics, the wholesale data of used cars in the United States in the first half of August rose month-on-month for the first time in four months. The market is worried that this is another sign that inflation may be sticky for a long time after the rebound in energy and food prices.
[U.S. retail sales in July increased by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, the largest increase since January]
Reaching $696.4 billion, it exceeded the previous value by 0.3% (revised to 0.2%) and the market expectation by 0.4%, the largest increase in six months. Retail sales account for about one-third of all consumer spending and are generally regarded as one of the indicators of the US economy. Benefiting from the continued growth of real wages, the growth of US retail sales in July exceeded expectations across the board, showing that the US economy is performing steadily.
[China's U.S. Treasury holdings fall to a 14-year low]
On Tuesday, August 15, Eastern Time, the U.S. Treasury Department released the International Capital Flows Report (TIC), showing that by June this year, China's U.S. Treasuries holdings had declined for the third consecutive month, with U.S. Treasuries held that month decreasing by $11.3 billion from the previous month, and total holdings falling to $835.4 billion, the lowest since June 2009.
Since April last year, China's U.S. debt holdings have been below $1 trillion. As of February this year, China has reduced its holdings of U.S. debt for seven consecutive months, and its total holdings have hit a 12-year low for seven consecutive months. After increasing its holdings in March and April, it hit a new low in May since May 2010.
However, China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.193 trillion at the end of June, and have generally rebounded this year:
[Google's "most powerful model for humans" Gemini is showing its potential and may be released in the fall]
Media reports revealed that Google's "new killer weapon" Gemini combines the capabilities of the three major models of GPT-4, Midjourney, and Stable Diffusion, and can also provide analytical charts, create graphics with text descriptions, and control software using text or voice commands.
[Bridgewater flagship fund is bearish on US stocks and US bonds in late July]
Bridgewater released a report to investors saying that in late July, Bridgewater's flagship fund Pure Alpha was "moderately" bearish on U.S. stocks and bonds. Of the 28 assets analyzed by the fund, 15 held bearish positions, including the U.S. dollar, metals, and global stocks. The two most bullish positions were the Singapore dollar and the euro. The latest 13F report shows that Bridgewater increased its holdings of Pinduoduo and China ETFs in the second quarter of this year, heavily invested in U.S. stocks and emerging market ETFs, and liquidated Netflix and gold ETFs.
Market sentiment
"There was a lot of pessimism in the market earlier this year, and the shift from pessimism to optimism was the driver of the stock market rebound. We saw it quickly shift from excessive pessimism to excessive optimism, and now we're starting to see that reverse."
The CNN Fear and Greed Index has fallen sharply back to the level at the end of March, and the current reading of 45 is in the neutral range:
In the AAII investor survey, the bullish ratio dropped sharply from 44.7% to 35.9%, while the bearish ratio rebounded for two consecutive weeks and is currently 30.1%:
Goldman Sachs' institutional position sentiment index rebounded from the previous week (0.7-0.8):
Financial strains surge to highest level since March:
Bank of America survey: Investors are least pessimistic since February last year. Investors still expect global economic growth to weaken in the next 12 months, but believe that the central bank can achieve a soft landing during this period.
Investors are currently allocating the least amount of money to stocks in 16 months, and are overweighting technology stocks the most in more than two and a half years:
The cash allocation ratio fell from 5.3% in the previous month to 4.8%, the lowest level since November 2021:
Funds and Positions
Overall holdings
Deutsche Bank's aggregated U.S. stock holdings have fallen for the fourth consecutive week to a two-month low (52nd percentile). Most of the decline was driven by subjective strategies, which have slipped to slightly below neutral (41st percentile); the holdings of systematic strategy funds have not changed much in the past week, and overall remain at the highest level since the end of 2021 (70th percentile).
Industry holdings
Positions in technology (73rd percentile), consumer staples (78th percentile), consumer discretionary (83rd percentile), and communication services (84th percentile) remain overweight but have declined this week.
Holdings in Industrials (72nd percentile) also declined, but remain modestly overweight, as does Energy (70th percentile).
Real estate (40th percentile) positions are moderately underweight and essentially flat, and financials (33rd percentile) positions are also underweight and fell this week.
Health Care (37th percentile) and Materials (33rd percentile) are underweight and roughly flat, while Utilities (17th percentile) is underweight and in a downtrend.
Fund Flow
Global equity funds saw net outflows of $2.1 billion, driven mainly by a net outflow of $5.2 billion from the United States. European markets saw net outflows for the 23rd consecutive week (-$1.3 billion), while emerging markets ($3.7 billion inflows) saw net inflows for the sixth consecutive week, mainly into Chinese funds, but at a slower pace than last week. Money market inflows accelerated to $21.8 billion, the fifth consecutive week of inflows. Net inflows into bond funds slowed sharply to a five-month low (+$30 million).
Futures data: Despite the correction in the spot market, as of last Tuesday, net longs in U.S. stock futures rose for the third consecutive week, mainly due to an increase in net longs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and a decrease in net longs in the Russell 2000, which was very close to neutral.
It is particularly noteworthy that the increase in net longs last week was mainly due to the more responsive but leveraged funds:
In other futures markets, net shorts in bonds fell for the second consecutive week, mainly due to a decrease in net shorts in 5-year and 30-year bonds, and an increase in net shorts in 2-year and 10-year bonds. In the foreign exchange market, net shorts in the US dollar increased, mainly due to an increase in net longs in the euro and pound, and a decrease in net shorts in the Swiss franc and the yen. Net shorts in the Canadian dollar increased, and net shorts in the Australian dollar also increased. Among commodities, net longs in crude oil fell slightly. Net shorts in silver and gold increased, and net longs in gold were cut for the fourth consecutive week, and net shorts in copper also increased.
Goldman Sachs PrimeBook Data
As the market fell, hedge funds shorted U.S. ETFs at the fastest pace since September 2022 last week, increasing by more than 7% of market value in a single week. But this may not necessarily be a pessimistic signal, as they have observed increased trading activity in U.S. stocks in the past few trading days, with investment managers increasing their exposure to individual stocks and also increasing beta hedging, while ETFs generally represent the market or industry but beta.
Stablecoin Flow in Crypto Market
On-chain stablecoins have experienced net outflows for the ninth consecutive week, with a massive outflow of $1.13 billion last week, the largest single-week outflow since the week of April 2 this year:
However, the balance of stablecoins in the exchange increased after two weeks, with a net increase of US$240 million:
This week’s focus
The main catalysts driving the market this week were Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday and Nvidia's (NVDA) second-quarter report on Wednesday.
Jackson Hole Symposium Preview
It will be held from August 24 to 26. This year's theme is "Structural Changes in the Global Economy", with a special focus on the strength of the global economy and potential inflation risks. The Jackson Hole Symposium could be a decisive moment, and the market will be watching closely to see whether the Fed will signal its expectations for a higher neutral interest rate, as this could be interpreted by the market as a hawkish stance, suggesting higher interest rates to slow the economy.
Highlights from the Fed Chairman’s speech:
Powell is expected to rely heavily on recent data, including the latest CPI and core private consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation reports.
He is expected to highlight some progress in fighting inflation but stick to his recent comments about the need to remain vigilant. He is likely to be relatively optimistic about economic conditions and continue to emphasize completing his price stability work, including achieving below-trend growth.
UBS believes Powell is likely to remain hawkish enough to open the door to more rate hikes, but is confident he will not put a rate hike on the table in September.
Bank of America said Powell is likely to reiterate the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target and oppose the market's pricing of the extent of rate hikes next year. The bank said that given the large uncertainty in estimates of the neutral rate, it does not expect to see any major shift in the Fed's neutral rate at this meeting.
Nvidia earnings preview
Nvidia (NVDA) will release its second-quarter report after the U.S. close on Wednesday, which will be the biggest test of the artificial intelligence hype cycle so far. It will show whether the AI craze that has swept the market in the past eight months has actually brought economic value. Because although Google and Microsoft achieved positive profit growth last quarter, they did not attribute the growth to AI, they attributed it to the increase in revenue of their existing businesses. Microsoft's AI-driven New Bing division also saw a 4% drop in revenue last quarter.
Indicators to watch for NVDA include the following:
Revenue: Analysts expect revenue of $11.1 billion, up from $6.7 billion in the same period last year, implying a 65% year-over-year sales increase.
Gross profit margin: It decreased last year, but started to rise in the first quarter to 66.8%.
Data center revenue: has been growing. Continued growth would quantify Nvidia's momentum in AI.
Game revenue: fell sharply in the second quarter of last year, and the downward trend continued until the end of fiscal 2023.
Earnings Per Share: Second quarter EPS is expected to be $2.07, up 305% from $0.51 per share in the same period last year.
Nvidia currently trades at 146x TTM P/E, 222x GAAP P/E, 43x P/S, and 45x P/B. This is a very steep valuation. Of course, Nvidia's expected growth is also very high, and if the company meets expectations, growing at a compound annual growth rate of several hundred percent in just a few years could indeed quickly catch up to the extreme valuation.
Market Comments
[Wall Street warns that 5% U.S. Treasury yields may become the new normal, and inflation may cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 6%]
Bank of America warned investors to prepare for the return of US Treasury yields to 5%, that is, to return to the US Treasury market before the financial crisis. Given that the average inflation rate of personal consumption expenditures reached 3.7% in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve may be forced to tighten its policy benchmark to at least 6%. At the same time, the yield inversion shows that the risk of a US recession still exists in the short term.
[JPMorgan Chase warns that the US economy may lose a major boost and consumers' excess savings will be exhausted]
JPMorgan Chase estimates that the accumulated excess savings of U.S. consumers peaked at $2.1 trillion in August 2021, and were -$91 billion in June this year; the household liquidity surplus supported by cash and cash-like assets is currently about $1.4 trillion, which will be exhausted in May next year, and liquidity may not be able to support the current above-trend consumption.