Bitcoin market analysis
Since Bitcoin hit a high of 73777, the market has been consolidating for 106 days. After a sharp drop in the market the day before yesterday, the Greed Fear Index fell below 50 and returned to the fear period. What does this mean?
The 7-day moving average of the Fear and Greed Index fell below the upward trend, which shows that the adjustment level is relatively high and long.
The following will make some unreliable speculations about Bitcoin.
Assuming that Bitcoin has completed its first major wave since its birth until 2021, then the market conditions since the end of 2021 are adjustments to Bitcoin’s second major wave, that is, adjustments to the rising market conditions in the previous ten years.
Speculation of time
Assuming the adjustment wave is a complex WXY, the current adjustment may be the Y wave.
According to this calculation, the running time of wave Y is generally between 0.618 and 1.618 of the running time of wave W. A minimum value can be obtained here, which is 0.618 times the time of wave W. The time of wave W is 378 days, so the minimum running time of wave Y is 233 days. This means that the current adjustment may not be completed until at least November this year.
Let’s talk about the amplitude.
Due to the approval of BTC ETF and the fact that institutions and even some countries have begun to invest in Bitcoin, this round of Bitcoin retracement may be smaller than in the past. I have previously written "What is the mining cost after Bitcoin halving?", which means that the mining cost of Bitcoin is about US$42,000, which is an important reference point.
Back to the structure, considering that the retracement of wave Y may not be too large, the probability that wave Y is a triangular structure is higher.
If wave Y is a triangle, then wave Y is most likely to return to the 0.618 point of wave W.
0.618 of wave W is around 48,000 US dollars.
The internal structure of the triangle pattern is three waves. The current decline may be a small c wave, looking for the first leg of the triangle. If the speculation of the triangle is true, then this round of retracement must at least fall below 56552. If it falls sharply, it may fall to 48,000 US dollars.
The overall market will fluctuate horizontally until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
The above is an unreliable speculation and is for reference only. #BTC走势预测