June 27 Macroeconomic Big Data Forecast: Final Value of US Real GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate in the First Quarter
Recommended reading ★★★★

Tonight we will see the second most important economic data this week - the release of the final value of the US first quarter GDP annualized rate.
This data is the second most important macroeconomic data this week, and the most important one is still this week's PCE index.

In fact, for a single round of data, the weight of GDP data is higher than that of PCE data, but GDP data tends not to fluctuate greatly, and will not be too far from market expectations. Because GDP data involves too many aspects, this leads to all parties paying attention to and being cautious about the authenticity of GDP data, so it will not be much different from market expectations. Of course, there is a small probability that the data will fluctuate greatly.
To put it simply, GDP data is too important, and expectations from all parties are relatively cautious, so the data is assumed to have the least impact in the market, unless it is an unexpected surprise. However, the United States does not dare to have an unexpected GDP data, so the probability is extremely low.

Data release time: 20:30 on June 27, 2024, along with the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 22. We interpret them in order of weight.


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The U.S. GDP in the first quarter, also known as gross domestic product, measures the total final product and labor value produced by economic activities in a region or country over a period of time, and is also an important indicator for measuring economic activity.
The US GDP in the first quarter is divided into initial value and final value.
Initial value: released one month after the end of the first quarter.
Final value: published three months after the end of the first quarter.
This issue is the release date of the final value of the US first quarter GDP.

A little science: There are three ways to calculate GDP. Each region and country will calculate according to different circumstances. The three methods are expenditure method, production method and income method. As a large spending country, the United States often calculates its GDP mainly by expenditure method, supplemented by production method and income method. If you are interested in the relevant calculation formula, you can check it yourself, so I won’t explain it here.

Data weight: ★★★★★
Data content: Previous value 1.3% expected 1.3% (recorded at the end of last week as 1.4, later changed to 1.3 according to market expectations),

Data impact:
1. The data is higher than expected and the previous value. The U.S. economy is stronger than expected. The active economy will bring pressure to inflation control. Under the current situation, it is not conducive to the expectation of interest rate cuts. At the same time, it will bring more pressure to Friday's PCE, which is bearish.
2. The data is equal to expectations and the previous value. The US economic growth is in line with expectations and remains stable. The economy with higher growth intensity will still bring pressure to inflation control. It will also bring certain pressure to Friday's PCE data, which is bearish.
3. The data was slightly lower than expected and lower than the previous value. The economic growth was lower than expected. The economic growth was lower than expected, which effectively cooled down the economic activity and weakened it, which will be conducive to the control of inflation. The gradually decreasing economic growth rate is conducive to the control of inflation. At the same time, the reduction in economic activity will lead to an increase in the unemployment rate and a cooling of the job market, which will help promote the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is good.
4. The data is significantly lower than expected and the previous value. The economic growth is lower than expected. Although it will bring more benefits to inflation control, it will trigger market speculation about the possibility of a US economic recession. Once a US economic recession becomes possible, although it will encourage the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to save the economy, it will also cause funds in risky markets, especially US stocks, to go to the bond market for risk aversion in the short term.
5. The data is significantly higher than the previous value and expectations. Economic growth has exceeded expectations and the economy is relatively active. However, the inflationary pressure brought about by economic activities will become the focus. The pressure on PCE on Friday will be very large, and it will also be unfavorable for expectations of a rate cut.

A little science: The final value of the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 3.4%. Compared with the current data, it is significantly lower than the fourth quarter of 2023. At this point, many friends may wonder whether this means that the U.S. economy is in recession.
It is necessary to explain here that a decline in GDP in a single quarter may be affected by international dynamics, environment, climate, etc., and does not represent an economic recession.

Recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth are required to be considered a recession.
If we want to anticipate a US economic recession, we must at least wait until economic growth slows down to around 0 before we can make positive predictions.

Of course, if the GDP data for the first quarter is significantly lower than expectations and initial values, then the market will anticipate the possibility of a US economic recession. The recent rise in the price of US Treasury bonds is also a reflection of the gradual emergence in the risk market of pessimism about the future of the US economy and inflation, which has led to funds buying US Treasury bonds.

In general, if the published value of US GDP tonight remains close to expectations, it will not cause too much volatility in the market. If there is a small probability that it is significantly lower than the previous value or higher than the previous value, there will be larger fluctuations.


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The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 22 (10,000 people), the previous value was 23.8 and the expected value was 23.6 units
The data is released at the same time as the US GDP.

This data is a regular weekly visitor, directly reflecting the current situation of the US job market. This data is also a veteran. Last week, the data fell for the first time since May 18, which brought about a 500-point fluctuation in the low-liquidity market last week. The impact of this week's data will not be too great.

At the same time, if the GDP data is far from the expected, the weight of this data on the market can be basically ignored. On the contrary, if the GDP data is stable and similar to the expected, this data may bring some fluctuations to the market.

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The monthly rate of the U.S. existing home sales index in May,
This data is a statistics of the sales of finished houses and second-hand houses that have been signed for sale. Through the sales of finished houses, combined with the new house sales data, we can infer whether there is a possibility of an increase in the rent of this household.

Data weight: ★★★ The weight of single data is low.
Data content: previous value -7.7% expected 2.5%,
Announcement time: 22:00

Data impact:
The data is equal to expectations and higher than the previous value, which is beneficial to the PCE data in May.
The data is higher than expected and the previous value, which is good for the PCE data in May.
The data was lower than expected and higher than the previous value, which put pressure on the PCE data in May.
A reading equal to or lower than expectations would put serious pressure on the May PCE data.

Because the monthly rate of new home sales on Wednesday was lower than expected, if the existing home sales are in line with market expectations and higher than the previous value, it proves that there are more people buying houses in the short term. This will create an environment for supply and demand pressure in the rental market in May, effectively reducing rents, which is also conducive to inflation control.
On the contrary, if the growth of existing home sales data is lower than expected, combined with the decline in new home sales, it proves that the willingness of demanders to buy houses has decreased under high interest rates, then these people may choose to rent a house, which will lead to a tight supply and demand relationship in the housing rental market, resulting in rent increases, which will put pressure on inflation.

The above is a forward-looking interpretation of today’s macroeconomic and technical data. We will continue to interpret the published data after the data is released tonight. Please wait patiently.