According to Jinshi Data, the spot copper price has been weak recently, and the price center of gravity has moved downward. As of January 2, the average price of 1# electrolytic copper in Zhuochuang Information was 73,460 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 7.34% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.30%.
On the macro level, US economic indicators show that inflation is resilient, and the Federal Reserve is expected to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, weakening short-term macro guidance on copper prices.
Fundamentally, smelters reduced inventory before the holiday, and holders sold goods at low prices. Downstream processing companies mainly reduced inventory, and demand was limited. Smelters resumed production after the holiday, and market supply may change from shortage to loose.
In summary, macro guidance has weakened, and the fundamentals may be that supply exceeds demand. It is expected that copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term, and there is a risk of the center of gravity moving downward.