Bitcoin (BTCUS) is having in the past 2 weeks the technical correction is should based on the previous Bull Cycle. As you can see, since the U.S. elections it has rallied aggressively past its previous All Time High (ATH), same way it did in December 2020.
Bitcoin and Doge during 2020
At the same time, the alt coin market was mostly consolidating in preparation of a bullish break-out. A representative example of such behavior would be Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) as seen in orange on this chart, which during BTC's December 2020 rally, it was consolidating/ pulling-back (green circle) from an initial rally. However it remained significantly below its previous ATH, the same way it is now.
The DXY decline sparking crypto rallies
Notice the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), displayed by the green trend-line on this chart. Right now it is has been rallying in the past three months, at the same time as Bitcoin has. In the previous Cycle in 2020, it hit a top during the COVID March 2020 market crash and with the smashing of the Interest Rates, it started a Channel Down decline that backed perfectly Bitcoin's rally. We has the exact same DXY-backed rally during Bitcoin's 2017 Bull Cycle.
As a result, we are seeing a paradox on the current Cycle: BTC entering its most aggressive phase (Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle and rallying despite DXY rising. That is attributed of course to a large extent to the huge ETF inflows (something that wasn't present in 2020).
Overdue DXY decline?
This leads us to believe that an overdue decline on the DXY, just as the Fed has initiated a new cut Cycle (as they did during the COVID crash), will push Bitcoin and especially the alts market, including Doge, to a new rally. Of course DXY's decline may not be as aggressive this time, as the stimulus shouldn't be that high (especially with Powell's recent remarks on a 2 rate cut expectation in 2025 instead of the previous projection of 4), but it could be enough to spark the final BTC rally of the Bull Cycle and the much anticipated Altseason.
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