Greetings from the first week of the year's final month.
As I mentioned in my
November analysis, 70k was just the beginning, and the upward movements created an excellent atmosphere for everyone. We've left behind a month where BTC couldn't quite touch 100k, ETH continued to show weakness, and XRP displayed its classic relentless rises. Now, we have a calendar filled with interest rate decisions, conferences, and Bitcoin discussions ahead. The European region and the US will be busy with interest rate decisions and inflation data in the second and third weeks of December. While ECB's 25 basis point cut is considered certain, there's less certainty about the FED. Additionally, Microsoft's shareholders will meet to discuss BTC, which will be significant news for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin
BTC, which hasn't quite touched the 100k price point, closed the last week with a decline. In November, we started seeing the expected movement as implied volatility rose 10% higher than anticipated. Everyone's wondering what the price will do in this month, which marks both Q4 and year-end closings.
It opened December at $96,500, and we can forecast monthly implied volatility around 37% and weekly at 15.4%. This shows us a monthly range of 61k to 132k, and weekly range of 82.5k to 112k. I think the 87k band will act as a pivot zone, with the 78k region serving as support below.
Put contracts are dominating for December 6th, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.10. This week looks like it will be somewhat bearish, as typical for month beginnings. However, things look more positive for month-end.
December was quite positive during the 2017 and 2020 bull runs. In 11 years, it closed red 6 times and green 5 times - let's see if it will close green once more to even the score.
Ethereum
Despite showing more positive movement than BTC in recent weeks, I think it still hasn't shown the desired rise. It closed November with 5% volatility and approximately +9% increase. Its movement is progressing better compared to BTC.
ETH entered December at 3700, and we might see monthly volatility of 40% and weekly of 19%. Our price range is 2200-5200 monthly and 3000-4400 weekly. We can proceed with our game plan accordingly. The 3250 level will act as a pivot zone, with 3150 and 3000 serving as support zones below.
For December 6th, expectations for ETH are more positive, and call contract density is very high for month-end. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.48 for December 6th and 0.29 for month-end, showing a very bullish outlook. I think we shouldn't miss upward movements during pullbacks.
Let's see how we'll spend this month and whether our bullish scenarios will continue or if we'll take a break from the rises. What are your thoughts? We can discuss in the comments.
#MicrosoftBTCInvestmentVote #ETHOnTheRise #December