Currently, the support capacity near the 90,000 to 92,000 range for Bitcoin is very strong, and this is the third time it has repelled bearish forces.
Due to Christmas, from December 22 to January 5, 2025, Wall Street is on holiday, and the US stock market is closed. During this time, there will be no buyers for BTC's ETF, and it is uncertain whether the market can withstand the selling pressure around the 20th. (Under normal circumstances, this should not occur, unless the US stock market crashes; it is currently closed.)

Currently, Bitcoin will still face resistance around the 98,000 to 100,000 range, and as long as there is an opportunity for a second pullback before Wall Street resumes work on January 5, it will be a chance to buy. The inflow of funds into ETH is also continuously increasing. Yesterday, the largest clearing contract was a long position in ETH. The current trend of ETH is very healthy, with almost all large long positions liquidated, making it easier for ETH to establish an independent trend, which will also trigger a rally in altcoins.

Bitcoin is currently in a volatile trend, with key resistance levels to watch: the 98,000 to 100,000 mark is the current key resistance level. If it can effectively break through, Bitcoin is expected to rise further. If it fails to break through, it may face a short-term pullback. Key support levels: 90,000 to 92,000.

It is prudent to maintain a strategy of buying spot at low levels, setting reasonable stop-loss points, while closely monitoring key resistance levels and market dynamics, flexibly adjusting strategies, and strictly controlling risks. $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #圣诞行情预测

What risks exist aside from the benefits brought to the cryptocurrency market by Trump's presidency?
First, fiscal deficit and debt risk. Although Trump's policies are beneficial to the stock market, they may lead to an increase in fiscal deficits. The expansion of the fiscal deficit significantly raises the issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds, which could trigger market concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt, leading investors to sell off U.S. Treasuries.
Second, trade war risk. Although the trade war is not a direct product of Trump's policies, retaliatory measures from Eastern countries could trigger trade war risks. The performance of the U.S. stock market in 2019 was also affected to some extent by the trade war, showing certain twists and turns.
Third, recurring inflation risk (long-term risk). If inflation recurs, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again, which will increase the risk of the U.S. economy falling into recession.
The probabilities of the first two major risks occurring are relatively high, but they are mainly short-term risks and have a relatively small impact on the market. The probability of the last risk occurring is lower, but once it does, its impact on the market will be very significant. In light of this trend, the market is likely to speculate on it.

Fluctuations in prices are the norm in the market; there is no market that only rises without falling forever.
If you cannot tolerate the risk of a pullback, do not invest all your funds or hold onto long positions stubbornly. Instead, trade short and keep some cash for a more prudent approach! The market often magnifies your greed and desire, and then teaches you a lesson when emotions reach a peak, especially for those who frequently trade contracts.

In the cryptocurrency space, finding a trading style that suits you is crucial. Choosing methods that align with your philosophy and strategy is the most important thing.

There is no perfect trading system in the world, nor is there a strategy that never makes mistakes. As long as the trading system aligns with an individual's risk tolerance and return expectations, is logically sound, executable, and can form a closed loop, it is a good system.

We can only earn money within the limits of our understanding; any gains beyond that scope do not belong to us.

The current market situation can only be described by Yi Lao's words:

The current situation is indescribable, the future is unpredictable, everything is possible! #加密市场回调 $BTC
$ETH

Ether has fallen below the cost price of Chuanbao, it's really too weak $ETH

Damaged twice, Dog Village, finally waiting for you～$SUI

How to build a complete trading system?

1. Set the cycle
Reference the cycle, which wave of momentum are you following.
Trading cycle: entry signal, take profit and stop loss cycle

2. Find key positions
1. Horizontal positions:
Main support level (go long, not short; only close short positions, not close long positions)
Main resistance level (go short, not long; only close long positions, not close short positions)
2. Patterns: mainly observe reversal patterns and turning points.

3. Find entry timing
1. Golden K: key candlestick appears
2. Volume: large volume at key levels, large volume breaking the neck line, volume-price divergence
3. Moving averages: golden cross, death cross
4. Patterns: breaking the neck line

4. Develop a trading plan:
A complete trading plan includes: asset, reasons, position size, direction, leverage, entry point, take profit, stop loss, follow-up.
The reason for opening a position must be more than 2 points
How much is the position size, how much loss is acceptable
Entry point, average holding cost
Is the stop loss a trailing stop or a fixed stop
How to respond to emergencies
Follow-up: what to do if you lose after the trade ends, what to do if you win

5. Execution
1. Positive floating profit: trailing stop, rolling increase position, fixed take profit
2. Negative floating loss: wait for stop loss to trigger, consider averaging down (not recommended)
3. Market stagnation:
Floating profit: can continue holding or reduce position, cash out for safety
Floating loss: hold on first or reduce position

6. Review
After the trade ends, you can summarize from the perspectives of technical analysis, position management, and mindset.

The essence of trading can be summarized in 16 characters: Keep it simple, follow the trend, cut losses in time, and let profits run.
Once a trend is formed, it is difficult to change!
Following the trend means buying on dips during a bull trend and selling on rallies during a bear trend. It’s not about whether it's right to buy when prices rise; it’s about the magnitude. When prices rise, the greater probability is that they will rise significantly rather than fall, and significant movements yield substantial profits.
Cutting losses in time means that when you are wrong, you must cut losses.
Letting profits run means that when you are in profit, you should hold onto it.
In reality, most people lose money by going against the trend, analyzing this and that, going against the current, quickly running away when they make a profit, and stubbornly resisting when they incur losses.
Almost all examples of people making big money are based on these sixteen characters. This model often doesn't yield profits because big market movements are not common; it goes against human nature. Once you have it, you can ride it all the way to the end, and you will become rich in life twice.
Trading is simple, but it’s hard to execute. I often reflect on this myself.

At present, the ratio of the size of the US federal debt to GDP (blue curve) has returned to the extreme high of 120%. Historically, this height was only reached around 1945 after World War II.

What will happen next? History tells us that the answer may be: a 30-40-year national debt and deleveraging cycle, which is essentially a comprehensive transfer of debt to the world, including the US resident sector, by means of currency defaults and continued high inflation, accompanied by the Fed's continued interest rate hikes to fight inflation. The red curve is the 3-month federal bond rate.

What is the outcome? High inflation completely dilutes the federal debt, but it also dilutes the wealth of people all over the world, including the American people, and as the federal benchmark interest rate continues to rise, the production sector has suffered a fatal blow. The Volcker shock in the 1980s. What should be done? Sell bonds (real negative interest rate assets), hold risky assets that are expected to outperform inflation (such as growth stocks), or endogenously anti-inflation assets (such as gold, BTC, ETH) to fight the erosion of wealth by hyperinflation.

Undoubtedly, BTC and ETH are the best choices, easy to carry, anonymous, etc. History has been repeating itself, and many places are so similar. Hold on to the chips in your hand and don’t get off the bus, otherwise you will definitely regret your choice in the future!

The total Bitcoin reserves of all exchanges will decrease from 3,021,819 on January 1, 2024, to 2,376,788 on January 1, 2025, a reduction of 645,031. (Institutional and listed companies' purchases off the market, including certain government transactions, are not recorded.) It is expected that in about three years, all mainstream centralized exchanges will have completely sold out of Bitcoin. By then, most of the chips will be concentrated in the hands of institutional consortiums, listed companies, top billionaires, and various governments. They will control the pricing power, and ordinary people will be unable to buy Bitcoin at a low price, only able to purchase 0.1, or 0.01, or 1 Satoshi. In the long term, it will only become more expensive!

This unemployment data is far below expectations, as the previous market forecast was 221,000, but the actual number of new claims for unemployment benefits was only 211,000. This represents a hot job market, which is not conducive to a decrease in inflation. Because the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, this has led to a rise in the value of the dollar. As the dollar appreciates, the cost of buying oil or any other goods from other countries decreases, which in turn lowers the cost of living in the United States, thus reducing inflation.

Therefore, whether it is the current high interest rates or a strong dollar, it is unlikely that inflation in the U.S. will continue to rise. So the CPI will definitely come down later, and the Federal Reserve will continue to inject liquidity, which is not a concern. Currently, although there has been a wave of short selling, it may not be over yet, and the market is still predominantly bearish, which serves as fuel for a future rise. Everyone can pay attention to these two charts of liquidation concentration areas, which are the clearing points for the market makers and are quite critical.

The first chart is the Bitcoin daily liquidation chart, where the yellow circle indicates that Binance's perpetual contract shows long positions totaling $487 million at 94386, while short positions at 100302 have $240 million liquidated.

The second chart is the Bitcoin 30-day liquidation chart across all exchanges, where the red circle indicates that long positions at 90125 total $5.187 billion, while short positions at 108959 total $8.818 billion liquidated.

The current market situation looks a bit speechless. ETF is in a state of net outflow, but the big cake is still dominated by bulls. If the long is successfully lured, it will fall, and if the short is successfully lured, it will rise. The traces of manipulation in the current currency circle are too obvious! Friends who hold spot goods should calm down, go travel and live, and don’t pay too much attention to the rise and fall of the short-term market. We try to grasp the trend and make large-cycle transactions.

Trading tests long-term profitability, not the ability to burst out at one time. The key is a long-term effective trading strategy. When buying, you must think about various situations, hold firmly, and sell more firmly, and gradually improve the winning rate.

Remember:
1: The truth and value may be late but will not be absent.
2: Greed is always the most dangerous trap.
3: Manage short-term desires, be clear about investment goals, and most importantly, pay attention to long-term value;
4: Be skeptical, think independently, and avoid herd mentality;
5: Understand and fear risks.
6: Seek reliable advice.
7: Be responsible for your own behavior.
8: Follow the rhythm of the market, put aside your greed and fear, and you can avoid many traps.

The Path of Progress for Leeks, Which Level Are You On?

Level 1: Just entering the crypto world, full of ambition, wanting to make a big splash with a thousand USDT.

Level 2: Trading every day, believing wholeheartedly in the words of influencers.

Level 3: Slowly realizing that making money isn't so easy; losses outweigh gains, most investments are losing, and directional judgments are inaccurate.

Level 4: Transitioning from a novice to a leek, starting to analyze coins and study technical indicators. Occasionally making some profit, but most of the time losing, messing up both short and long trades, and operations are chaotic. The more you learn, the less money you have, and self-doubt begins to creep in.

Level 5: Now an old leek, having some personal views on the market, but falling into new confusion; no matter what you do, it feels wrong, and your mentality is about to break.

Level 6: Through practical experience, exploring your own trading model, earning more and losing less, and gradually controlling your mentality.

Level 7: No longer looking at technical indicators, starting to observe the 'momentum', the rhythm, and emotions, finding your own 'way'.

Level 8: Possessing a unique trading model, strict discipline, holding coins but feeling detached, inner peace, able to advance and retreat freely.

Level 9: Not being obsessed with the market, treating the crypto space as a reliable money-making place, enjoying studying narratives and philosophy. At this point, you finally understand that investing is the philosophy of life!

Level 10: Nothingness, is everything!

The crypto world has always been a process of survival of the fittest, a sifting of sand! To avoid being eliminated, you must make changes! Every penny you earn is a manifestation of your understanding of the world; every penny you lose is due to your cognitive shortcomings. The greatest fairness in this world is that when a person's wealth exceeds their understanding, society will have a hundred ways to harvest you!!
Until your understanding and wealth are matched.

Use the Diamond Sutra to trade

The past is unattainable
Stop loss when necessary
If you lose, you lose
Don’t dwell on the memory of loss
No matter how you think about the past, it’s over
You should make plans for new trades
Many people will dwell on the regrets of past losses before starting new trades
The past is over
Don’t think about it

The future is unattainable
Don’t predict the market
You are not a god
You can’t predict the market
All you can do is find the signal and place an order decisively
Many people like to predict the market
The really good strategy is never to predict the market
But to patiently wait for the market that belongs to your own system and then place an order decisively

The difficulty of speculating on altcoins in this bull market is increasing, as there are simply too many types available, and the vast majority of altcoins are highly controlled by project parties and platforms. The big data shows a clear picture for both bulls and bears; project parties can easily collaborate with platforms to manipulate prices and harvest retail investors, even large investors. In one day, prices can surge two to three times, and in another, they can drop by 30% to 50%. Therefore, the days when retail investors could buy a few coins and make huge profits are completely over!

Now there are thousands of altcoin varieties, a significant change from the dozens in the past. It is very difficult to have a broad market rally for altcoins like before, so we can only expect a structural market. Some altcoins may increase several times or even tens of times, while others may continuously exploit retail investors. Thus, buying a large number of coins and waiting for a price increase is no longer a viable strategy.

As for how to select altcoins, it feels like analyzing technical and fundamental factors is no match for luck. You have to outsmart the project parties and platforms; the information is completely asymmetric, and only the best of the best can survive. It seems that making money from altcoins in the future will be as difficult as it is in A-shares!

So, brothers, once you make money, be sure to convert it into Bitcoin.

Market Analysis

1. Bitcoin is currently in a daily level rebound.

Support Level: 94150, if it closes above this, the rebound will continue.

Resistance Levels: 96350, 97500, 99900

If it closes below 94150 on the hourly level, the rebound will end.

Lower Support: 93000, 91500

If these are broken, there may be a spike to 90300, 85500.

2. Ethereum has been consolidating at the daily level for a long time, and is currently in a rebound at the four-hour level.

Upper Resistance: 3450, if it breaks through this, the subsequent rebound strength will increase.

Continue to watch resistance levels: 3500, 3550, 3630

Support: 3360, if it closes below this on the hourly level, the rebound will end.

Lower Support: 3302, if broken, the market will likely turn bearish.

Further support levels: 3210, 3130, 3040.
$BTC $ETH

The year 2025 has begun, may this year become a highlight in everyone's trading journey!

Wishing my brothers:
To gain insights into market opportunities, making every decision accurate and decisive;
To master the trading rhythm, letting every transaction sail smoothly;
For wealth to grow steadily, with the numbers in the account rising higher like sesame sprouting;
To maintain a balance of body and mind, having health and happiness on the path to achieving goals.

The market may fluctuate, but your perseverance and wisdom will surely lead you to greater victories.
May 2025 bring both bull and bear markets for your advantage, with opportunities and good fortune by your side!

Wishing us smooth trading and a victorious start! In the new year, let’s reach for even greater heights together!

Tips for Trading Beginners:
1. Build a Strong Foundation
You need to first understand what trading is all about, how the market operates, and the professional terminology, such as stocks, forex, options, and what assets you can buy and sell. Additionally, you should understand the difference between trading (buying and selling to profit from short-term price differences) and investing (holding for long-term appreciation).
2. Keep Learning
You need to spend time studying trading strategies, how to manage risk, and market analysis (including technical and fundamental analysis). There are many courses, books, and videos available online specifically for beginners, and you can choose some to learn from.
3. Choose a Market
You need to decide which market you want to participate in, whether it be stocks, forex, or cryptocurrencies. At the beginning, focus on one market to gain a deeper understanding.
4. Practice with a Simulator
Many trading platforms offer demo accounts where you can practice with virtual currency. This way, you can understand the trading process without risking real money.
5. Set a Budget
You should only trade with money you can afford to lose, and decide how much you want to allocate for trading, such as $1,000 or $500 as your starting capital.
6. Learn to Manage Risk
You need to control the risk of each trade, ensuring it does not exceed 1-2% of your trading capital. You should also learn to use stop-loss orders to limit losses and consider diversifying trades to reduce risk.

Recently, Bitcoin has weakened, which can be said to have cultivated a large number of bears. This month, the high leverage short positions are 2.5 times that of the longs, which is very rare in a bull market. The bulls basically have no chips left to be liquidated. Once it reaches 91,000 or 90,000, liquidation will be almost complete; perhaps the big players will insert one last needle to clear it out. After that, the liquidatable long positions will be nearly in place. The bears still have over ten billion in fuel, and at 98,000, they can trigger a 3 billion explosion. If Bitcoin reaches 103,000, that could liquidate 8 billion in short positions. In fact, shorting is essentially selling in advance, and once they are liquidated, they will have to forcefully buy back to close their long positions, which will further push prices up and trigger more long positions. I believe this over ten billion in fuel is particularly attractive to the big players, and it's time to trigger these many short positions. Meanwhile, Wall Street will fully return at the beginning of January, and on January 3, FTX will start repaying 16 billion dollars, followed by Trump and Musk's inauguration on January 20. These are all positive signals. Even if we get caught in the short term, as long as we hold onto the Prague upgrade in March, we will turn losses into profits, so there’s nothing to worry about; be patient and hold onto valuable assets.

Hold firmly and wait for sector rotation.
Once you decide to buy a certain value cryptocurrency, you must hold firmly and not be easily influenced by the market's short-term fluctuations. Because in a bull market, every cryptocurrency has the opportunity to rotate; as long as you can hold on, there will always be opportunities to gain profits. Market trends generally emerge in despair, develop in hesitation, and conclude in madness.

AIXBT
This coin has topped the increase chart for 9 consecutive days, it's exceptionally strong, but I feel the momentum is starting to weaken, short it for a bit～
To gain insights into market rhythms, one must step in time with wealth's tempo! $AIXBT