12.1 Evening Analysis

The afternoon analysis also perfectly reached the target point. Achieved 700 typical points

Currently, the MACD is in the positive zone, and both DIF and DEA are diverging upwards, indicating a clear bullish trend.

In the short term, there may be some pullback pressure, but if it continues to hold at a high level, it indicates that the market remains strong.

​ Old Wang's afternoon suggestion

Bitcoin pullback to the 96500-95500 area, target 97600— 98500 area

Ether pullback to the 3650-3600 area, target 3720-3750

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The Top Ten Truths of the Cryptocurrency World Revealed, Wake Up Instantly After Reading!

1. Don't expect altcoins to easily increase by 100 times; there is a high probability they will head towards zero (up to 99.99% chance).
2. When an opportunity is heavily promoted as a money-making chance, it is often a signal that you are about to take over at the peak.
3. When you feel the cryptocurrency market is about to collapse and all coins will go to zero, it might just be that a bull market is around the corner.
4. When you are certain that a particular coin will definitely rise, perhaps the market maker is quietly closing positions and selling off.
5. Making money in the cryptocurrency world is as difficult as climbing to the sky, but losing money is as easy as flipping your hand.
6. Not all KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) are making a fortune; some KOLs may earn less than you.
7. Contract trading does not have the 50% success rate that people imagine; in reality, less than 20% are profitable, a typical example of the 28 law.
8. Market makers are not your opponents; following their lead creates opportunities for profit.
9. The coins in the cryptocurrency world themselves do not have much intrinsic value; it is human greed that 'creates value'.
10. Getting rich overnight in the cryptocurrency world relies more on luck and skill than just hard work.

I have witnessed too many people rush into the cryptocurrency world, believing they understand it well, only to be harshly taught a lesson by the market. These words may be harsh, but they are the experiences I have summarized from years of struggle in the cryptocurrency world.

12.1 From the perspective of the four-hour K-line structure, the bearish strength of Bitcoin is gradually increasing. The current price is near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper level needing to pay close attention to the 97200 point, while the lower level focuses on the support around 95700. Looking at the one-hour K-line structure, although there are signs of reduced volume for Bitcoin bears, it is also near the middle track. The upper level is concerned around 97000, while the lower level focuses on support around 96000.

The midday operation strategy is as follows:
If Bitcoin retraces to the 95800 - 95200 range, it is advisable to go long, targeting the price range of 97000 - 97500.
When Ethereum retraces to the 3650 - 3600 range, it is recommended to go long, with an expected upward target of around 3730 - 3750.

This round of bull market that started in 2021 usually has three waves according to the rules, which may last until March 2025.

Each wave of market is distinguished by a pullback of 15% or more. In terms of trend, the increase of Bitcoin (BTC) decreases wave by wave, while the altcoin becomes stronger and stronger, and the pullback after each wave of market continues to increase until the last wave ends the bull market.

The top of the bull market often shows a consolidation and oscillation for more than a month and a slow upward trend, accompanied by a number of indicator divergences, such as momentum, trading volume and sentiment divergence, that is, BTC's increase slows down, altcoins continue to rise, and the market's "fear of missing out" (FOMO) sentiment becomes more and more fanatical.

The current market pattern is close to the middle and late stages of the first wave of market, and the low point of Bitcoin 91,500 is not considered a pullback. Most altcoins and Ethereum (ETH) have not pulled back at all. Only a small number of the early rises have entered sideways trading, which does not meet the definition of a pullback.

If this expectation is followed, the market will either break through 100,000 and then start a correction at a certain point, or the bears will exert their strength next week and turn the current volatility into a correction. It should be noted that this is only a reference for expectations, and everything depends on the actual market trend. If the bad trend of the bull market ends next month or January next year appears, don't be lucky.

According to Cailian News on November 26, Mark Palmer, a senior analyst at the benchmark company, a New York investment bank, predicted that Bitcoin will soar to $225,000 by the end of 2026, an increase of about 133.5% from the current level [__LINK_ICON]. He believes that there are three main factors driving it:

Institutional investor drive

When investors and pension funds began to buy gold exchange-traded funds in the early 21st century, gold prices began to soar and gradually became a mainstream investment product. Today, many pension funds are underfunded, and Bitcoin, as a "non-correlated asset", has great potential for growth. If institutions continue to include Bitcoin in their portfolios, its demand will increase significantly, thereby driving up prices [__LINK_ICON].

Bitcoin halving mechanism

The Bitcoin protocol has a mechanism for halving every four years to control the issuance speed and total amount and ensure scarcity. After the past three halving events, Bitcoin has seen "substantial increases" in the next 14-16 months, and changes in supply and demand have significantly affected its price [__LINK_ICON].

Cryptocurrency-friendly environment

Investors hope that Trump will help push up cryptocurrency prices during his second term. He may relax regulations, establish a national Bitcoin reserve, and consider letting Chris Giacarlo serve as the "crypto czar", which will help the United States become a leader in the crypto field and have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices [__LINK_ICON].

In fact, not only Mark Palmer, but also many Wall Street bigwigs have become more optimistic about Bitcoin since Trump won the election. For example, Tim Draper, a famous American venture capitalist, predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach about $120,000 by the end of this year and $250,000 in 2025; investment bank Bernstein predicts that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin may be as high as $200,000 [__LINK_ICON].

President-elect Trump has officially nominated more than 20 cabinet members. Although they are still awaiting Senate approval, they are likely to be approved given that the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate.

It is worth noting that many of the Trump 2.0 cabinet and recently announced senior officials are cryptocurrency supporters, and some even hold Bitcoin, which has attracted widespread attention in the market and is seen as a major turning point in the US cryptocurrency field, or the beginning of a new era of regulation and policy.

In the new cabinet, in addition to Trump, Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance is a staunch crypto advocate in Congress and has disclosed that he holds Bitcoin; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant publicly supports cryptocurrencies, advocates reducing digital asset regulation and building a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin; Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a well-known bond trading expert on Wall Street, holds hundreds of millions of Bitcoins and is deeply involved in Tether debt management. His joining will enhance the cabinet's professionalism and credibility in the crypto field.

It can be seen that these "crypto-friendly people" are keen on cryptocurrencies and have investment backgrounds, which indicates that future US policies may be more favorable to the industry, promote clearer and friendlier supervision, and help innovation and growth. The cabinet is also called the "cryptocurrency national team" by the market.

Making money with Bitcoin has nothing to do with you

If you are a big dealer or a top predator in the currency circle,
will you go on a killing spree in a bear market or a bull market?

Definitely in a bull market,
because in a bear market, leeks don't come in at all.
What are leeks?
It's the group of people who chase the rise and fall, don't want to rely on cognition, and rely on luck;
It's the group of people who don't listen to him when he is told to study hard and don't listen to him when he is told not to speculate in coins;
It's the group of people who don't enter the market when the price of coins is low and they should enter the market, and enter the market when the price of coins is high and they shouldn't enter the market.

There is another kind of people who are very annoying,
when the price of coins rises, they come to ask you if you have made a fortune,
when the price of coins falls, they publish news about how many people have been liquidated.
It's the people who didn't buy it, want to laugh at you when it falls, and envy you when it rises.
What does liquidation have to do with me?
I neither speculate in coins nor add leverage.
These people may not even know what "liquidation" means,
buy in the secondary market, there are sellers when there are sellers, and there are buyers when there are sellers.
If someone's position is liquidated, someone else must make money, but in most cases, it is not the small retail investors who make money. These news are all headline parties, and there is no substantive content at all. Junk food is food that has no nutrition and is harmful to the body. Junk information is information that has no value and can damage your brain. You say, these people always look at these junk information, are they just like those fat people who eat junk food every day? In fact, whether Bitcoin goes up or down has nothing to do with most people. The rules of investment are very simple, so simple that there are only four words: buy low and sell high. It is so simple that most people don't believe it, but think about it, what kind of investment is not buy low and sell high? Even if you are shorting an asset, it is also these four words, just the opposite operation, sell high first and buy low. But the difficulty is here, what is low? What is high? This is a matter of opinion. In May 2017, the price of Bitcoin first hit 10,000 yuan. Would you dare to buy it? People at that time certainly didn't dare to buy it. But at the end of the year, it was close to 20,000 US dollars, which is nearly 150,000 RMB. It increased 15 times in half a year. Many investors came in. Then it fell sharply. The transaction was a process of mutual abuse. Buyers bought because they thought it was too cheap. Sellers sold because they thought it was too expensive.
Both sides thought the other was an idiot.

Later, Bitcoin rose back to 20,000 from its low point, and
the leeks began to stir again.

They didn't buy when they should have, and
they didn't sell when they should have.

But if you look back,
the current price is over 700,000 RMB.

That is to say,
no matter what price you bought at that time,
as long as you didn't sell,
you would have made a lot of money.

Even if you bought at the high point in 2017,
you could have made 5 times in more than 6 years.
What does 5 times mean?
An average annual increase of 72%.
You have beaten all the funds in the world,
including the mysterious "Renaissance" quantitative fund.

But how many people have done it?
At the end of 2018, Bitcoin plummeted from 20,000 US dollars to 3,150 US dollars in one year.
I haven't sold the Bitcoin I bought at 3,500 until now,
and it is currently 28 times.
Why do I say "currently"?
Because I will continue to hold it,
and I am still investing regularly,
so it must be more than 28 times.

But these are all flattened for you to see.
If you zoom in,
the process is tortuous.
The K-line is more exciting than your electrocardiogram,
jumping up and down.

So how can you keep calm?
The vast majority of people cannot see the essence,
so they can't keep calm at all,
so making money with Bitcoin has nothing to do with you.

Not just Bitcoin,
in fact, Bitcoin is not special.
All assets are the same:
there are a lot of leeks, and only a few make money.
In the short term, your luck may still be useful,
but in the long run, your good luck and bad luck will offset and neutralize,
and the only thing left is your cognitive realization.

This makes it easier to make money,
because everyone goes to the wide door,
and the narrow door is less crowded.
Zuo Hui said: When you have to do something difficult and correct,
in fact, many things are very simple.
For example:
find a good asset and hold it for a long time,
it's that simple.
But many people don't believe in simple things,
and have to toss,
find a sense of existence,
and then toss all the chips in their hands.

There is no way,
My colleague said:
There are two sayings,
One is: listen to others’ advice and you will have enough food.
The other is: don’t try to persuade others.

Indeed,
When the price of the currency fell, many people came to me to laugh at me.
Although they couldn’t see my joke,
when the price of the currency rose, many people came to me to ask if they could invest?
Really,
I really want to ask: what were you doing before!

Forget it, she is right!

Don't persuade others,
I always say:
Long-term bullish, short-term God.
If you plan to hold for a long time,
buy with your eyes closed.
If you just want to speculate,
you can ask God!
I am not God,
If you don't study it clearly,
you can't hold it when it goes up,
and you want to sell it when it goes down.
So,
Bitcoin making money has nothing to do with you.
Not only Bitcoin,
any opportunity to make money has nothing to do with you

Trump's victory has ushered in explosive growth in the Bitcoin derivatives market. The volume of futures open interest has soared like a rocket, breaking through the $60 billion mark in one fell swoop, and the previous concerns about a pullback have instantly dissipated. During the same period, BTC and ETH option contracts completed their expiration and delivery, with considerable nominal values ​​of $9.4 billion and $1.45 billion respectively, among which the Put/Call Ratio has become the focus of the market.

Miner MARA spent $615 million to "stock up" Bitcoin, and its holdings increased to 34,794 BTC, far ahead of other public miners. The market value of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings has risen sharply, successfully breaking through $48 billion, demonstrating the preference of institutional investors for it. The Trump family's DeFi project WLFI successfully achieved its sales target after receiving a $30 million investment from TRON DAO.

Musk and Trump's joint efforts to cause a storm, coupled with the rampant spread of false information, the European Federation of Journalists decisively withdrew from the X platform. Solana co-founder revealed that due to stricter regulation, crypto startups with a valuation of about $250 billion have withdrawn from the Bay Area. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that the use of stablecoins is expected to reach 10% of the total US M2 and foreign exchange transactions. Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke deposited 20,000 ETH with Kraken.

OKX successfully entered the Belgian market, launched products and services that meet local needs, and continued to expand its European compliance business. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee actively promoted the green bond roadmap to lay a solid foundation and escort for the application of blockchain technology. South Korea's Financial Services Commission (FSC) strictly guards against virtual assets becoming loopholes in the anti-money laundering system. Ethereum's market value has steadily increased to 13.12%, consolidating its core position in the crypto market. Coinbase responded to the doubts about not supporting the Celo Layer 2 upgrade, emphasizing its key function of focusing on building a bridge for the crypto economy.

11.29 Noon Analysis

Bitcoin daily line shows a small negative line. Yesterday's market was stable with small fluctuations. It is now sideways at a high level, with long and short games, and the overall bullish pattern. At the hourly level, its price quickly rose from the lower track of the Bollinger band to the upper track, and the trend diverged.

​Lao Wang analyzed the road and suggested that the big cake should fall back to the 94500-95600 area, with a target of 97000-98000 area

Yita fell back to the 3550-3500 area, with a target of 3620-3650
​

Lao Wang's morning analysis has 1200 points. Steady profit!

As of November 28, 2024, President-elect Trump has nominated more than 20 cabinet members. Although they still need to be approved by the Senate, the possibility of approval is quite high, after all, the Republican Party is the majority party in the Senate.

It is worth noting that in the Trump 2.0 cabinet and the recently announced list of senior officials, there are many cryptocurrency supporters, and some of them have disclosed holdings of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. This has attracted widespread attention in the market and is regarded as a major turning point in the field of cryptocurrency in the United States, and may usher in a new era of regulation and policy.

In addition to Trump, there are many cryptocurrency supporters in the new cabinet. For example, Vice Presidential nominee J.D. Vance is a staunch cryptocurrency advocate in Congress and has stated that he holds Bitcoin in his financial disclosures; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly supports cryptocurrency, advocates reducing digital asset regulation, and supports the establishment of a national strategic reserve of Bitcoin; Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is a well-known bond trading expert on Wall Street, holds hundreds of millions of Bitcoins, and is deeply involved in Tether's debt management. His joining is expected to enhance the cabinet's professionalism and credibility in cryptocurrency.

It can be seen that the common characteristics of these crypto-friendly groups are that they enthusiastically support cryptocurrencies and have investment backgrounds, which indicates that future US policies may be more conducive to the industry, promote the introduction of clearer and friendlier regulatory measures, and help the industry innovate and grow. Therefore, this cabinet lineup is called the "cryptocurrency national team" by the market.

The altcoin market is like a "shadow army" that follows the fluctuations of Bitcoin (Bitcoin), rotating regularly.

In the first wave, SOL, memecoin, etc. are strong, either running ahead of Bitcoin or rising synchronously with Bitcoin. As the protagonists of this round of bull market, funds are constantly chasing them.

In the second wave, large-cap altcoins such as DOGE, XRP, and ADA appeared. When Bitcoin rose, they followed, and their growth exceeded that of Bitcoin. Driven by emotions and events, they became the pioneers of impacting high-market value, and also led some medium-market value altcoins to rise together.

In the third wave, Ethereum (ETH), the "king of altcoins", came out with its younger brothers. Once ETH moved, its ecosystem and L2 currencies followed suit. At this time, the currencies that rose sharply in the front entered consolidation, which means that after the emotional speculation cooled down, the market entered the actual rotation stage, and it is currently in this stage.

When Bitcoin is strongly consolidating, it is an opportunity window for altcoins. As for the next wave, whether a new narrative will emerge to open a new market or repeat the previous routine, it is full of variables and worth paying attention to.

Retail investors around the world have a common problem: they hold on to their positions when they lose money, and sell them as soon as they turn a profit. They neither look at the trend nor the trading volume, but only focus on the small profit in their accounts. The correct approach is to do the opposite. Hold on to your profits, and stop losses when you lose a little and exceed your principal by 5%. The stop-profit and stop-loss principle I set is: when the profit reaches 15%, stop profit when it falls back to 10%, and continue to hold if it continues to rise; operate 100 times, even if the winning rate is only 50%, the profit can reach 300% according to this principle. The difficulty lies in overcoming greed and fear, integrating knowledge and action, and remembering that the trend is king and following the trend.

To judge the trend, you can look at the moving average, which divides long and short positions. Upward is long, and downward is short. For short-term trading, look at the daily moving average, and follow up with a large volume breakthrough; for medium and long-term trading, use the weekly moving average as the standard, break through to enter, and break through to leave. If the market is not good, go short. Don't buy the bottom easily when the currency market is trending downward. Don't fantasize about making profits against the market. When speculating in currency, you must seize the high probability and give up the low probability. The courage to admit mistakes and stop losses in time are the foundation of life, which is far more important than making profits for a while.

For short-term trading, you should pay attention to the 15-minute - 30-minute - 1-hour K-line chart, find the entry and exit points of the day based on KDJ, and use OBV to judge the main intention. Washing the plate and shrinking the volume, shipping and increasing the volume, strong coins encounter risk announcements, short-term trading is mostly shrinking and shaking the warehouse, and there may be new highs in the future.

In short, the currency circle is an ecological circle formed around virtual currency, covering the issuance, trading, speculation of virtual currency and various groups, platforms and derivative activities related to it.

Many people mistakenly regard the currency circle as a casino, and plunge into it with the idea of ​​getting rich overnight and speculating. But think about it carefully, how many people in the casino can really return with a full load and put the money they won into their pockets? Even if you are lucky and make a lot of money for a while, it is often just a passing cloud in the end, and you end up with nothing.

Some people also think that the currency circle is like a lottery station, and they invest a little money in it every day, fantasizing about getting a super high return and winning the "jackpot". Little do they know that with this mentality, most of the time they are just constantly consuming the principal, increasing disappointment, and their moods are ups and downs, which is not worth the loss.

In fact, if you change your perspective and regard the currency circle as a serious investment target field, making money may not be as difficult as imagined. From the perspective of the global investment landscape, some people claim that the cryptocurrency market has brought together a group of the best investment options, and believe that its potential far exceeds the traditional investment categories we are familiar with, such as the A-share market, gold, and oil, and even thinks that it is more attractive than insurance and funds.

However, if you want to truly tap into the value of the cryptocurrency market and realize the appreciation of assets, you must strictly abide by the unique investment rules of the cryptocurrency market and operate with professional and rational investment concepts and methods. At this time, you can no longer have a "gambler" mentality, you can't play blindly or speculate blindly, but you must look for valuable assets down-to-earth, carefully judge, and invest cautiously.

If you still can't figure it out, there is a strategy that seems to be the most "stupid", but has been tested in practice and is the most effective, that is, hoarding coins. Choose those currencies with potential and valuable foundations, hold the "chips" in your hands, steadily survive the bull-bear conversion of the market, and patiently survive two complete cycles. By then, what you gain may be real and steady wealth growth.

From the four-hour chart, Bitcoin Bollinger Bands are shrinking, K-line is running on the upper and middle track of Bollinger Bands, 5-day moving average is hooked upward to form a short-term support below, MACD double-line golden cross is running below the zero axis, and the green kinetic energy column continues to increase. This shows that the market is in a relatively stable state but has the potential to rise, but the upward momentum is not very strong. It is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of the upper pressure and the lower support. If it can effectively break through the upper track of Bollinger Bands, it is expected to rise further. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands open and break through the suppression and stand on the upper track of Bollinger Bands. It is bullish on the trend of low and long during the day.
Big Cake
94500-95000, step back to see around 96300-97000

Second Cake
3480-3520, step back to see around 3600-3650

11.29 Early Morning Analysis

Bitcoin market has a box. After the previous decline, the long and short stalemate has no continuation. In the short term, it fluctuates between 94500 and 96000 and adjusts in the small cycle range. If it falls back in the short term, you can go long

​
Lao Wang Yulu suggested that the big cake fall back to the 94200-93500 area, with the target of 96000-97500 area

Yita fell back to the 3520-3450 area, with the target of 3600-3650

In the evening, Silk Road has given more than 1,000 yuan of space in advance! Steady profit

11.28 Evening Analysis

K Line Pattern: On November 27, the price surged significantly forming a long bullish candle, and on the 28th there was a slight pullback but it remains at a high level. In the 4-hour cycle, starting from November 26, the price has been oscillating upwards, repeatedly breaking through previous highs.
Technical Indicators: The MACD's DIF and DEA are both positive and the histogram is positive, indicating a bullish trend; although there is convergence, there is no death cross signal; RSI14 is around 65, close to the overbought zone but not extreme, leaving room for further rise; EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are arranged upwards, with short-term moving averages above, and the price is supported by EMA7 moving upwards.

Old Wang's analysis suggests that Bitcoin may retrace to the 94200-93500 area, with a target of 96000—97500.

The Altcoin may retrace to the 3600-3550 area, with a target of 3650-3700.

NetDragon Websoft Holdings, a Hong Kong-listed company, is a global online and mobile Internet education company that builds an innovative education ecosystem with its mobile Internet technology and operational expertise. In the 2021 annual report, it held cryptocurrencies worth 127 million yuan, but lost tens of millions of yuan in the following years. However, there was a surprise in the 2024 interim report. In the first half of the year, it made a profit of 51 million yuan by selling cryptocurrencies worth 290 million yuan. However, in terms of market conditions, its stock price has fallen by 19.6% from the beginning of the year to now, and it has only risen for a short period of time.

Coolpad Group has invested tens of millions of dollars in crypto assets this year. It not only bought shares of crypto mining companies, but also spent about 4.03 million US dollars to purchase 113,000 shares of BlackRock IBIT at a purchase price of about US$35.64 per share. Now IBIT has risen to US$55.03 per share, and Coolpad has a floating profit of about US$2.191 million. But it should be noted that Coolpad announced in October that the company is still suspended.