The most optimistic news at the moment, overshadowed by a sea of ​​fear and negativity, is the newly released FTX bankruptcy filing. Creditors (former investors and traders) are expected to recover approximately $16 billion from October to November this year. This amount of money will inject a lot of money into the market. Contrast this to the current move by the German government to sell $1.5 billion, which is causing chaos. Let me repeat, the market is expecting an inflow of $16 billion, but it is panicking because of the $3 billion that Germany plans to sell? Imagine how explosive the market will be when crypto investors have $16 billion in their hands. The market has not yet priced in this positive news, which makes it even more optimistic. I guess you will see this kind of news here first. Because most Twitter analysts are taking the bearish route, this will be their fate, and time will tell. Scenario 1: Market makers will push the market up violently to ensure that the $16 billion enters at a high point, or does not enter at all, or only enters at a high price before the price corrects. The target price is expected to be between $86,000 and $92,000 before creditors are repaid. Scenario 2: As my followers know, I predict a bull run in Q3 and Q4 with a target between $80,000 and $100,000 this year and continuing into 2025. This $16 billion could flood the market in panic buying and mania, driving prices higher and creating more mania in the market. Whichever scenario more or less happens, $BTC 's price target remains between $80,000 and $100,000 in the worst case scenario. The amount FTX repays is five times the amount previously held by the German government ($3 billion). $BTC $ETH

The probability of a rate cut is definitely going to increase (originally 70%, now 80%)
However, it will take until August to trade in the expectation of a rate cut. In addition, this is a preventive rate cut. In addition, it is only July 10th, so it is unlikely to rush 1 month + 21 days in advance.
The bottom is definitely almost here. The best thing is that there will be a positive news in the cryptocurrency circle, such as ETF approval, to take over and make it last for 7-10 days.
Then trade the expectation of a rate cut

At present, the most concerned thing in the entire market is the Ethereum ETF, and the second is the issue of interest rate cuts!
1️⃣The market generally expects that the approval and listing time of the Ethereum ETF will be concentrated in two time periods: July 8 to July 12, and July 15 to July 19. It is believed that the approval this week is more likely. Last week, the applicants submitted updates to the S-1 documents in accordance with the requirements of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Given that the updated content has not changed much, it is expected that July 8 will be the deadline for document updates, and then enter the final approval process.
2️⃣Unless the SEC makes another request for amendments, the approval process will continue. Considering the current status of the document, the SEC is unlikely to propose amendments again, and it is expected to complete the approval in the week of July 15 at the latest. The market expects that the approval of the Ethereum ETF will bring new vitality to the crypto market. With the release of market selling pressure and pessimism, market sentiment is expected to gradually improve.
3️⃣In addition, the recent market liquidation data is comparable to the FTX incident at the end of 2022, indicating that the market may be close to the bottom. In this market environment, it is recommended that you avoid being emotionally bearish on the market and remain rational and objective. Maintain a long-term perspective, pay attention to changes in market structure and fundamentals, and avoid making impulsive trading decisions due to short-term fluctuations.

7.6 A big rebound is on the way
1. After yesterday's lowest point of 53,500, the volume of the pin was withdrawn. This is a false break, which is similar to the previous false break of 56,500
2. The panic effect was achieved yesterday, and the copycat also fell by 20%. Since it is a false break, it should really rise, and it will be a strong rebound
3. This wave focuses on MEME and SOL ecology $ETH
$BTC

How many times have you felt that the cryptocurrency world was completely ruined?
1. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China and five other ministries and commissions issued a notice on preventing Bitcoin risks, stating that Bitcoin cannot and should not be used as currency in the market.
The entire market immediately fell into despair, and countless people frantically dumped the market to cash out.
In just two weeks, Bitcoin quickly fell from $1,152 to $519.
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2. On February 24, 2014, Mt.Gox, the largest virtual currency exchange at the time, discovered that all 850,000 Bitcoins on the exchange were stolen overnight. The entire market quickly took a sharp turn for the worse, and in the subsequent long bear market, Bitcoin fell to as low as $178.
Countless people gave up this market, and countless people left sadly.
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3. On September 4, 2017, domestic exchanges were cleared and ICOs were vigorously rectified. This time the decline reached 85% again, and 90% of the altcoins were almost zero, and all the altcoin holders in the entire market were bloodbathed.
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4. On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin fell from $8,000 to $3,800 in just two days, and the price of altcoins fell several times in two days, and some fell more than ten times in two days.
All investors doubted their lives and felt that there was no hope in the currency circle. Many people left the market after losing all their money.
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5. On May 19, 2021, the Mutual Finance Association and other institutions jointly issued a document stating that relevant institutions should not carry out businesses related to virtual currencies. As soon as this document came out, the market took a sharp turn for the worse. Bitcoin was cut in half within a few days, and many altcoins even fell several times on May 19. Countless investors were bloodbathed again on this day.
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There are too many stories along the way, and too many people left the market sadly, but those who left the market regretted it. If they could have persisted a little longer, the ending would have been very different.
Now these twists and turns are at most a drop in the ocean in history. If you have seen too much, you won’t take it seriously.
This market will achieve greater success again, and victory will be reserved for those who persevere to the end.

The red circle is just around the 30% retracement from the highest point;
The median of the green circle is around 42,000. Many people see the number starting with 4, which is the support level (called the pressure level by some people at that time). The transactions here are very dense, belonging to the dense transaction area, and will also be the support range for some time in the future (bull market). But I think it is too pessimistic to see the decline here now.

If it breaks 58,000, it means the last needle was swallowed, and you should buy the goods, buy the big cake. Even if you are wrong and stop loss, you should buy it. You can't miss this point. I bought the big cake and stopped loss at 2%.

There will be a chance to go all-in in the currency circle within three months
1. From the perspective of time, BTC has two waves of weekly rises. The first wave rose by 140 and then fell back by 154 days. The second wave rose by 182 days. The callback is expected to last between 154-200 days, which means that the adjustment will end in August and September. In addition, October has almost always risen in history, and it is often the starting point of a big market rise
2. From the perspective of space, the first wave of adjustment fell to 0.618, which is around 25,000. The second wave may also fall to 0.618, which is around 55,300. This position just fell below the previous low of 56,500, and bottomed out after all the bulls were blown up
3. BTC within 60,000 is already very cost-effective, and fixed investment is also good. Don't touch altcoins before BTC has bottomed out.

As long as it does not fall below the 200-day moving average, insist on being long on Bitcoin. Looking back at the history, the 200-day moving average is basically the dividing line between bulls and bears. If your core asset is Bitcoin, the withdrawal from the highest point to the current position is only 15%. I didn’t say anything about copycats. There are several bottom-off phenomena in this round of market correction: 90% fewer people talk in the group than usual. In the past, there were basically 99+ group messages, but now there are less than 10 messages a day. The KOLs in the Chinese area have begun to turn to yellow, and the marginal girls who are usually active in the currency circle have disappeared. $ETH

Remember this picture, remember this dynamic, you will thank me in half a year, give me a thumbs up, and come back to see if you don’t believe me. There may be two trends in the future:
1. A rebound in July and August, and then adjustment again, and the market will officially start after October.
2. Direct shock in July, stepping back, and gradually raising the bottom, starting a new round of slow bull market, referring to the trend after October last year.
Undoubtedly, which one do you stand for? Tell us your opinion!

Ethereum $ETF launch postponed, what do you think of the future market
1. Before the Ethereum spot ETF application is officially launched on July 8, the short-term trend before the 8th is oscillating upward. If it is not passed, it is expected to be positive
2. The positive situation on the 8th will be a short-term correction, and smart funds will leave the market, including the selling pressure of 10 billion ether held by Grayscale. It will fluctuate and pull back for about one or two weeks before going up
3. In the last two rounds of bull markets, July closed mainly positive, and September was the main rising wave. In addition, CZ returned within four weeks, and the negative impact of the Mentougou incident on July 15 was resolved. In July, the order was mainly low-long
4. The $ETH descending wedge breakthrough has been completed. From a technical point of view, as long as the retracement does not fall below 3409, the market will continue to rise to the target of 3600-3700. $ETH
$ETH

I tweeted a few days ago that it was the bottom, and even said the day before yesterday that there would be a rebound in July and August. Although I don’t have many fans, I never run away. Although there are times when I bet wrong, I will stand up and lose money if I bet wrong. Don’t be a blogger who always makes money, be true to yourself:
1. BTC has returned to above the 120-day moving average. I think this rebound should slowly set new highs. It will be great if the interest rate can be lowered in September. My current position is 85%. Recently, I mainly added ETH and bought moca nft. @Moca_Network is expected to tge soon. According to the current price, there should still be an absolute return of 50%-100%;
2. The short-selling strategy is still effective. Several projects with large amounts of unlocking have entered the list of short-selling, such as $blast, $sui, $wld $strk, etc., but not here. Wait for them to rebound first;
3. Small coins are firmly held $sc and $olm, these two have changed from speculation to long-term investment. Stability is optimistic about the latter, and explosiveness is optimistic about the former. In the next few days, we should pay attention to whether there are some small innovations in the market, and boldly increase positions when we encounter reliable ones;
I know that I will buy the bottom when you go out to travel, but seeing that your travel is so sweet and salty, I envy you so much$ETH

$ETH $BTC

5 is poor, 6 is desperate, and 7 is turning around. It seems to make sense! #BTC59000 bottom should be confirmed✅
With the strengthening of the Asian market, the market is expected to form a joint force between China and the West and begin to resonate upward!
The darkness before dawn🌅, the reward will always be given to those who believe and are patient

ena long
Opening position: 0.502
Stop loss: 0.46 22x

Early morning market analysis:
Big cake
Currently rebounding at the 1-hour and 2-hour levels. Pay attention to the key position of 61200. Only when it stands at this position, the small level will drive the rebound at the 4-hour level. The upper target/pressure level is around 61800-62400.
If it fails to stand at 61200 in the early morning, it means that the rebound is not strong enough. Pay attention to the support level of 60780. If it does not fall below, it will still be a rebound market, and it is likely to fluctuate upward. If it falls below, all levels will enter a short trend again. The lower support level needs to pay attention to the positions of 60200, 59250 and 58200.
Ether
The current 4-hour level is in a short consolidation state. Pay attention to the key position of 3390. Only when it stands at this position, the small level will start to rebound upward. Pay attention to the upper target/pressure level of 3405, 3440 and 3478.
If it fails to stand at 3390 in the early morning, the market is likely to continue to decline. The support levels below need to focus on 3368, 3335 and 3283. $BTC
$ETH

I was just sighing that there are too many opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle. It is really a paradise for small-scale investment. As long as you are still alive in this market, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years... maybe you only need a sudden opportunity, a bottom, to turn things around. It is so important to survive in the cryptocurrency circle. If you make money, spend more. If you lose money, increase income and reduce expenditure. Slowly wait until the opportunity that belongs to you comes out$ETH
$SOL
#

Are you ready to play Kas inscriptions? I think the popularity is not bad!
I am going to buy Kas to have a bite, and then watch the show!
Reasons:
1. At this stage, the popularity is not on the inscriptions. It can be seen from the fact that I bought pizza and was stuck. I believe it will rise in the long run, but in the short term, I have to wait for the popularity to return!
2. To make an analogy, you buy Kas to play inscriptions, and I buy Kas and wait for it to rise and sell it. It is equivalent to you spending money to buy coins to play chain games, and I only buy game tokens and wait for the gold to rise! (You may make a lot of money or a big loss, but I am a steady profit)
3. Reduce the number of shots. I made a lot of money yesterday, but I couldn’t sleep at night and turned on the computer to flush a few local dogs. What a loss! I looked at the records. The money I made from local dogs was basically made by bottom-fishing high-quality targets. For pvp, it was basically based on the group friends’ posts and 1-2s.
Summary: I bought Kas myself and sold it directly after a wave of rise! Comfortable
$ETH

The altcoin has reached a critical turning point!
Now most retail investors have lost confidence.
No matter you publish market analysis or project analysis,
you will be scolded and criticized!
The traffic of related topics is even pitiful.
As everyone knows, the market is quietly completing the reorganization of a new round of market.
The following figure shows the proportion of Bitcoin market value to altcoins.
The monthly line is now near the suppression line.
After the last bull market reached this line, altcoins all experienced big market trends.
So the probability of a market trend in July-November is very high.
The current price of high-quality altcoins is the bottom range in the future.
Ethereum's ETF funds have not entered the market, and confidence is still there.
The worst plan:
1. If the market in the second half of this year and the first quarter of next year is still infinitely negative, give up!
2. It means that the main force does not even want retail investors to drink the soup, so there is nothing to say, let the dealer always accompany his Bitcoin and Ethereum.
But I always believe that the stage of continuous downturn is often an opportunity for birth, and the emotions of retail investors and the state of the market will not deceive people.
Continue to hold Ethereum. $ETH
$SOL $OP

Look at the picture and tell the story, be ready for a big counterattack in July
First of all, various indicators are close to the bottom sentiment
The reason why many on-chain data are distorted is that the data is seriously lagging. When everyone knows certain indicators, it is easy to become invalid. The truth and wealth will always be in the hands of a few people. If most teachers are bearish, the market is likely to go the other way
Market sentiment is desperate within a month, and then there are many wealth-making effects and dead projects. Whether it is a fund, a secondary retail investor or a studio, it is rare to make money
There are very few people who are really still exploring new tracks and projects, and some friends even develop into the tertiary market
In short, don't be too pessimistic. How did January come, and how should you face July with the same mentality? If you don't do contracts, you can always get up again
$NOT $IO