✍️Space Notes | "Let's talk about recent reading gains and insights"

🎙️Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020

Rockefeller and his son said: Successful people should constantly maintain an optimistic spirit, constantly think about how to solve problems, and never get too involved with those with negative energy, they will drag you into hell.

Another book about children mentioned: Every child is a big tree, with huge growth potential. You don't have to worry about what he will become under your control. Every child can grow luxuriantly, and he has a natural growth nature.

Deutsch said: He will have a spirit similar to optimism. We will encounter many problems, and the problems are endless, but our problems can all be solved.

"The Origin of Wealth" mentions the co-evolution of physical technology, social technology, and business design.
Physical technology explains why our current economy or technology can continue to grow exponentially or in the long term; the adaptability of social technology should depend on three factors: first, the potential for film and game, second, a good method of profit distribution, and third, a mechanism to deal with defects.

#阅读

Space Notes | "Let's talk about recent reading gains and insights"

#读书 #投资

🎙️Zhen Dong push @zhendong2020

Rockefeller and his son said: Successful people should constantly maintain an optimistic spirit, constantly think about how to solve problems, and never get too involved with those with negative energy, they will drag you into hell.

Another book about children mentioned: Every child is a big tree, with huge growth potential. You don't have to worry about what he will become under your control. Every child can grow luxuriantly, and he has a natural growth nature.

Deutsch said: He will have a spirit similar to optimism. We will encounter many problems. The problems are endless, but our problems can all be solved.

"The Origin of Wealth" mentions the co-evolution of physical technology, social technology, and business design.
Physical technology explains why our current economy or technology can continue or grow exponentially in the long term; the adaptability of social technology should depend on three factors: first, the potential for film and game, second, a good method of profit distribution, and third, a mechanism to deal with defects.

📚Updated E2M's book club #书单

🎙️ The book club is held twice a week

#复盘特斯拉建仓前后的想法

Peicai Li Twitter @pcfli
The psychological anchoring effect of "falling makes you suspicious, rising makes you feel expensive" is a psychological barrier that every investor must overcome.
Encountering such a big difficulty is actually largely caused by insufficient cash reserves.

To solve this problem, you may still need to expand your thinking framework, improve your research ability, and use the shortest time to completely sort out the underlying logic of the bid.

#个人底层投资原则分享

Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth
When science really sprouted, it changed the narrative completely. It was not explaining how things happened, but prohibiting certain things from happening. At the same time, it could predict how wide the range was. This is the development of science. When we discuss investment principles, I think the development of investment principles is similar to this.
Investment faces a slightly different environment from science. Investment faces huge uncertainty, which includes both the uncertainty of information in the outside world and the uncertainty of your inner emotional ups and downs. Therefore, you will definitely make mistakes in an uncertain world. The key to principles is that it can help you avoid the biggest mistakes.

What are the big mistakes in investment?
The first type is permanent loss of capital; the second type is actually more abstract, that is, what is the purpose of investment? If the purpose of investment is to make you more free, then this freedom will definitely be accompanied by more free time. At this time, investment must face a trade-off. If money will not be maximized, then it is necessary to avoid continuous loss of time or energy. The third biggest mistake is missing a major opportunity that should belong to you.

#个人底层投资原则分享

This episode is where several regular guests will share their underlying investment principles and accept questions and inquiries from other guests.

Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020
My definition of principle is to start from the beginning and end with the goal of keeping things unchanged for a long time and being valuable to you in the long run.

Buffett's investment principle is to buy companies with industrial advantages, competitive advantages, and managed by honest and talented people at a reasonable price. After reading Buffett, I think principles can be roughly divided into two categories: one is what you should do; the other is what you don't do.

There are several differences between Gorilla Games and Buffett:

Buffett talks about the need to value companies and to choose companies whose cash flow is easy to understand. Gorilla Assets has the characteristics of high-tech companies such as paradigm shift or crossing the chasm, without good cash flow, and its valuation is high and growing at a high speed, which will continue to change, so it is difficult to define what a good price is.

Space Notes | ETH swaps for Tesla: Do you regret it?

Q. Does investing in Ethereum and Tesla require observing leaders?

A. Ethereum does not rely much on Vitalik's leadership. It is currently on a decentralized, free economic platform. However, under the current free market, free competition, and free combination, it has not actually come up with particularly good applications. Many external teams have brought funds and methods, but have not tried new models, so there are still doubts about the growth space of the entire web3 underlying distributed ledger. (Chensong @mornpine)

Q. According to the Bayesian formula, do you consider re-adjusting your Ethereum position?

A. Bayesian formula: It says that weights are given based on your judgment of new information. First of all, you have to have a basic probability judgment on this matter. When new information comes, you have to judge the importance of this new information, so as to judge to what extent it can affect your basic probability. From the perspective of the long-term, medium-term, and short-term framework, there is actually not much change in the long term. It is just that the political policy in the medium term has changed, resulting in a short-term inflow of funds into Ethereum, but this does not actually change its long-term value, so the passage of the ETF will not change my position configuration. (Chensong @mornpine)

Q. Do you have your own way of dealing with the simplification of information?

A. The reason why I describe this thing with a frame is that the frame gives you the feeling that this thing has boundaries, ranges, and intersections between frames, which makes us realize that this frame is limited. When we talk about frames, we will actively think about whether there are better frames to supplement and support.

Try to do such a psychological experiment: "Suppose you wake up tomorrow morning and your positions are empty, how will you configure your positions?" This thought experiment will help you overcome the obstacles of switching to some extent, and give you a certain emotional push and improve your ability to act.

Q. Where do your deepest feelings about Tesla come from?

A. The two most important points: One is FSD. After having FSD, our entire living conditions and quality of life have been improved. The other point is that few stocks can have such an effect, enjoying growth and providing enough emotional value.

Space Notes | ETH swap to Tesla: Do you regret it?

[Key Points]
Chensong @mornpine
Using the investment framework to make a shadow, what is the framework? It is called "short-term sentiment, medium-term policy, and long-term growth".

The reason why this framework is effective is that although humans can live freely in the three-dimensional space of time and space, everyone is equal in the time dimension. Everyone can only move forward at a constant speed along the time axis. We are all creatures trapped on the time axis. When discussing how to cross the long river of time, this framework is meaningful to everyone;
Second, it can better test yourself and help find the path that suits your investment;
Third, when discussing with others, it can help us cut our own and the other party's views into more detailed pieces.

Look at growth in the long term: see how fast the overall energy of the market is growing? We compared web3 and FSD in terms of TAM. At that time, we had a misunderstanding about web3 and naturally thought it was a continuation of web2. However, how big Web 3 can grow has nothing to do with Web 2. It is mainly related to blockchain and distributed ledgers. Since FSD has made a breakthrough, it is now possible that it is in the first month of the outbreak. The update and iteration speed is quite fast, and the initiative is still in Tesla's hands.

Look at policies in the medium term: Policies here are divided into monetary policy and political policy. Monetary policy refers to high interest rates, which are very unfavorable to the development of the virtual economy. Even if interest rates are cut in the future, they will most likely remain above 4%. Tesla has a slight advantage in this regard, because FSD is more likely to make a profit at present, so investing in Tesla in the high-interest era is both safe and has a higher ceiling. When facing the volatility of monetary policy, we should ask ourselves what will the investment group do if the high interest rate of more than 40% continues for 10 years, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates as expected but raises interest rates, and if the interest rate cut is an emergency cut after a huge crisis?

Look at emotions in the short term: If there is no big problem with the medium- and long-term judgment, short-term emotions can help us vaguely find a good buying range. As for Tesla's sentiment, when people are very optimistic about the future of FSD, at such a divergent moment, it is definitely a very vague buying range. As for when and how to buy, different people have different strategies.

#Buffett
Space Notes | "Let's Talk About Buffett"

Recently, I'm reading: Buffett's letter to shareholders. At that time, Dongzhen specifically mentioned that some of Buffett's thoughts on investment may still be very inspiring and useful today.
During this period, space talked about Buffett, this legendary figure in the investment industry, and saw whether some of his investment standards and ideas are still applicable today.

🎙️Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020
Looking back at Buffett's public letter to partners or shareholders in 1956, you will find that some of the principles and views he has upheld in the past sixty or seventy years have been upheld to this day. Similar principles and views can also be felt that the principles and views he formed at that time and now uphold are very valuable.

There are many interesting points in his early process of becoming a stock expert:
The first point is that he can find a large number of arbitrage strategies in the market. For example, many things he did in the early days were similar to holding banks and insurance companies. There were not so many competitors in the market, and these arbitrage strategies could achieve very high returns every year;
The second point is that no matter whether it is a low-valuation or holding-type enterprise, in the beginning, I faced the situation that my understanding of the opponent and the competitor were relatively weak;
The third point is that some investors around him have no logic, no opinion, greed, and do not follow rationality; the fourth point is that if you compare the agricultural product companies, traditional newspapers and map companies he acquired at that time with the current Crypto, you will find that many things he did at that time were very innovative, and he was looking for some suitable opportunities among some irrational investors in the market.

Buffett was born in an era of traditional business. From this perspective, we can understand why he is more interested in old-fashioned businesses and why he can't understand the current Internet companies including Crypto. Each generation of investors will be related to some of the most important innovations or changes of the time, and look for the best opportunities in this process.

🎙️ Peicai Li Twitter @pcfli
How can you keep your assets with a stable rate of return in the next ten, twenty, or even thirty years? At this time, you need to think clearly about why you can beat the market, just like Buffett?What are the advantages? Focus on long-term value instead of chasing short-term stock prices. He has always emphasized the real value, saying that some values ​​are reflected in the financial statements but are not necessarily true. Some financial statements that do not reflect the real value are worth noting.

In the field of Crypto, we have become accustomed to the high valuation model of the project. In fact, everyone does not know whether there is long-term value. Sometimes we think that the price of the currency can rise, and even chase the so-called ability to lock and sell. Buffett has insisted on writing down his investment strategy and investment return rate every year since he was 26 years old. This is really a very good habit worth learning.

🎙️Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth
Buffett is not thinking about never touching textile companies again, but thinking about a concept called restricted surplus and free surplus. He believes that companies like textile companies seem to make money, so they must buy the latest equipment. If they don’t buy it, the productivity of other companies will soar after buying it. If they sell it at the same price, they will lose money and can only be forced to upgrade, so the money earned must be continuously invested.
This is actually infinitely close to a standardized competition, so he thinks it is useless. He also made a metaphor later that "if this horse can count from 1 to 10, it must be a very powerful horse, but definitely not a good mathematician."

I think there are at least two angles to Buffett's theory:
The first is the barbell strategy, at least a part of the funds should be placed on positions that may subvert the original investment portfolio;
The second point is that for such companies whose certainty seems to be declining, there will be some risks that are compensated by the growth of its potential market. In fact, it presents two perspectives at the same time, one is how big the overall potential market is, and the other is who has the ability to capture the greatest value in this overall potential market.

#以太坊ETF批准预期 #ETH

Space Notes | "Is there still hope for Ethereum?"

We talked about Ethereum last Friday. On April 30, the Ethereum spot ETF was listed in Hong Kong. Some people believe that this is a sign that cryptocurrencies are moving towards the mainstream, but on the other hand, the SEC has been delaying the launch of Ethereum spot.

Today, Bloomberg analysts raised the probability of approval of the spot Ethereum ETF from 25% to 75%, which also triggered a rise in market sentiment and a rise in coin prices in the short term.

[Key points summary]

🎙️ Lijia Twitter @davidhornhouse
The BUIDL fund is used by BlackRock to help companies manage the treasury. Simply put, it tokenizes short-term U.S. debt. Each BUIDL token represents one dollar and is equivalent to cash.

Published on the Ethereum mainnet, its current redemption mechanism is that if you hold a dollar of BUIDL funds, you can transfer between banks and redeem U.S. dollars off-chain, and you can also open a stablecoin redemption mechanism on the chain later.
A major pain point of traditional finance is that cash and assets are diverted to different tracks. For example, money and cash are in the banking system and are regulated by the Banking Act; stocks and bonds are in the securities system and are regulated by the SEC; commodity futures are regulated by the CFTC. When so many processes are integrated, there must be an audit, so the friction between the different ledgers of the entire transaction is very large, which is why blockchain and digital currency are created.
The biggest innovation of the BUIDL fund is that it puts assets and cash in the same ledger. If it is on the chain, it will cut off a lot of middlemen and save a lot of costs, and its programmability and transparency far exceed traditional finance. The key point is that BlackRock knows how to do it in a compliant framework.
Whether it is a gorilla asset or a monopoly asset, when its price performance is accompanied by a decline, many of its fundamentals will be questioned.

🎙️Zhen Dong Twitter @zhendong2020
Ethereum definitely still has a chance, especially in the entire smart contract track. Its leading position and everyone's trust in it are obvious to all. There are still a large number of transactions or applications and various innovations.
But from the perspective of supply and demand, the biggest problem at present is that there are more chains or block spaces that can provide similar services as Ethereum, so Ethereum faces great competition on the supply side;In terms of demand, there is no innovation that is eye-catching, generates huge wealth growth, or external increments.

If we only look at the current monopoly direction of Ethereum, it is still a very important target, carrying a lot of transactions, but the increment of new transactions in the future is not so clear, because it currently has many competitors, and its demand has no new direction in the future, and there are no particularly obvious events or signals.

🎙️Peicai Li Twitter @pcfli
If you pay attention to the increase in ETH in the short term, on the one hand, you will pay more attention to whether a large category of assets on its chain suddenly becomes active. Once active, it will bring transaction fee income to the chain, which will also form a better support for the price of Ethereum; on the other hand, it depends on whether Ethereum has application scenarios and whether it has grown. Both levels may bring potential benefits to Ethereum.
For Tesla, what matters more is whether the revenue grows and whether the cash flow itself has increased. For the software business, what matters more is whether the subscription volume of FSD has increased. As the standard for future autonomous driving, its enhancement will make Tesla the leader in the electric vehicle field, thereby driving the sales of Tesla vehicles. There are also financial services and robotics, which are much faster than Ethereum, and there are not many events on Ethereum that can generate cash flow and income.

🎙️Odyssey Twitter @OdysseysEth
In a sense, the market or large institutions can support Ethereum's future application scenarios, but Ethereum still lacks an ecosystem like an operating system.

#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #特斯拉

Space Notes｜Talk about Tesla and ETH

Everyone used to think that Bitcoin and Tesla were the same type of asset. From the perspective of the gorilla, they are very similar in terms of monopoly and growth.
When discussing FSD in the group, it was said that FSD makes the atomic world programmable, and the applications that can be programmed on it may be far beyond our imagination. This sentence made me connect Ethereum with Tesla's FSD at once.

🎙️We discussed the following:
✅Tesla and Ethereum can be regarded as similar types of assets, mainly based on their similarities in programmability, growth and innovation capabilities.
✅The respective advantages, potential risks and future development possibilities of Tesla and Ethereum.
✅Views on the cryptocurrency market and Tesla FSD technology, and how they affect current and future investment decisions.
✅Explore investment logic, valuation methods and how to adjust investment strategies based on changing market information.