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Many people are drawing, are excited, and are watching the countdown to the altcoin explosion, which is five days away! Before the altcoin explosion, ETH must stabilize above 4000u! If it hasn't stabilized above 4000u, it will still be mainly oscillating within a range! Going back and forth washing the altcoins! Today, ETH has once again fallen below 4000u, and I personally think it's an opportunity! A relative bottom appears at 3810u! The bull market is not over yet! It's just a test of patience! When you see the right moment, go all in!
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So interest rate hikes and cuts don't matter; everything is up to human effort.
The Federal Reserve was clearly going to cut interest rates on December 18, so why did the market plummet?
Wall Street generally predicts that there is a 95% chance of a rate cut tonight. Why are BTC, ETH, and BNB all falling, and the altcoins are even plummeting? In addition, the US stock index is also falling, and the Dow Jones Index has set the longest consecutive decline record since 1978.
Conclusion first
Because the expectation of a rate cut in December has already been priced in, the subsequent price trend depends on the expectation of a rate cut in 2025, that is, today's Fed interest rate dot plot and Powell's speech. At present, the market generally expects the Fed to be more hawkish, so a lot of risk funds are sold in advance to hedge risks.
Will it rise or fall in the future?
In September this year, the market generally predicted that the interest rate would be cut four times to the neutral rate in 2025. Now, the market's expectations for the Fed are generally hawkish. If the interest rate is cut three times, the market will be relieved. If the interest rate is cut four times, the market will be very optimistic and risk assets will usher in a very gratifying increase. If the interest rate is cut twice, the risk market may usher in a sell-off.
Conclusion first
Because the expectation of a rate cut in December has already been priced in, the subsequent price trend depends on the expectation of a rate cut in 2025, that is, today's Fed interest rate dot plot and Powell's speech. At present, the market generally expects the Fed to be more hawkish, so a lot of risk funds are sold in advance to hedge risks.
Will it rise or fall in the future?
In September this year, the market generally predicted that the interest rate would be cut four times to the neutral rate in 2025. Now, the market's expectations for the Fed are generally hawkish. If the interest rate is cut three times, the market will be relieved. If the interest rate is cut four times, the market will be very optimistic and risk assets will usher in a very gratifying increase. If the interest rate is cut twice, the risk market may usher in a sell-off.
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Bold Guess - No Rate Cut
The expectation of a decline today is highly probable, as investors need to hedge before tonight's Federal Reserve meeting. The focus of this meeting is no longer about a 25 basis point rate cut, but rather the dot plot and Powell's speech.
In simple terms, the Federal Reserve may implement only 2 to 4 rate cuts in 2025. The higher the interest rates in 2025, the greater the probability of a black swan event occurring. The market will also be more concerned about the delay in easing policies, so investors' risk awareness is increasing. There is also a detailed explanation in the pinned tweet.
In addition to the interest rate meeting, there is also the question of whether Japan will raise interest rates in December, with results expected on the 19th. Although the probability of a rate hike is indeed not high, it is normal to take precautions. Moreover, these two events today are likely to be linked to next week's Christmas.
In simple terms, the Federal Reserve may implement only 2 to 4 rate cuts in 2025. The higher the interest rates in 2025, the greater the probability of a black swan event occurring. The market will also be more concerned about the delay in easing policies, so investors' risk awareness is increasing. There is also a detailed explanation in the pinned tweet.
In addition to the interest rate meeting, there is also the question of whether Japan will raise interest rates in December, with results expected on the 19th. Although the probability of a rate hike is indeed not high, it is normal to take precautions. Moreover, these two events today are likely to be linked to next week's Christmas.
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Spreading rumors is not good! The amount is incorrect! As an administrative penalty! The specific matters were not detailed and it was reported by someone else! Don't ride the coattails of virtual currency for attention! It's meaningless!
VPN Trading Gains of 5 Million Seized: Survival in the Crypto Sphere Becomes Increasingly Difficult
Recently, a case involving virtual currency trading has sparked heated discussions in the crypto community. An investor, Zhang San, used a VPN to access an overseas Bitcoin trading platform and accumulated a profit of 5 million by buying low and selling high. However, these profits were deemed illegal by the police and confiscated. Additionally, Zhang San was fined 15,000 yuan, and his phone and computer were seized as tools of the crime.
Case Details
In August of this year, the police launched an investigation after receiving a tip-off. Based on Article 14 of the Interim Provisions on the Administration of International Networking of Computer Information Networks, Zhang San's use of a VPN was deemed illegal, and his profits from trading while using the VPN were classified as illegal gains and confiscated. This is not the first case of its kind; previously, a programmer was also found to have earned millions using a VPN for work, and his income was similarly classified as illegal gains and confiscated. The core issue in these cases is that "gaining profits through VPN" is considered a violation of relevant regulations.
Controversial Focus
There is ongoing debate regarding the handling of such cases. Although strict regulatory measures have been implemented for virtual currency trading domestically, it has not yet been explicitly defined as illegal. However, the police view the use of a VPN as unlawful and consequently consider the profits gained through this means as illegal as well.
Supporters' View: This practice helps to regulate the market and crack down on illegal activities.
Opponents' View: There is no necessary connection between the legality of using a VPN and virtual currency trading, and such determinations may be seen as excessive.
Potential Risks
Engaging in virtual currency trading domestically is already fraught with uncertainty, and participating through a VPN further increases legal risks:
Illegal VPN Use: According to current regulations, using a VPN to bypass restrictions without permission is illegal.
Profits from VPN Trading are Considered Illegal Gains: The police believe that all profits obtained during VPN use can be classified as illegal gains.
Devices and Funds May Be Confiscated: Electronic devices used for trading and funds may also be seen as items related to the case and confiscated.
For those working in the crypto sphere, it is crucial to operate more cautiously in the current strict regulatory environment. Understanding and adhering to laws and regulations is key to mitigating risks.
🌹🌹🌹 Like and follow the captain to learn more about crypto knowledge!
Recently, a case involving virtual currency trading has sparked heated discussions in the crypto community. An investor, Zhang San, used a VPN to access an overseas Bitcoin trading platform and accumulated a profit of 5 million by buying low and selling high. However, these profits were deemed illegal by the police and confiscated. Additionally, Zhang San was fined 15,000 yuan, and his phone and computer were seized as tools of the crime.
Case Details
In August of this year, the police launched an investigation after receiving a tip-off. Based on Article 14 of the Interim Provisions on the Administration of International Networking of Computer Information Networks, Zhang San's use of a VPN was deemed illegal, and his profits from trading while using the VPN were classified as illegal gains and confiscated. This is not the first case of its kind; previously, a programmer was also found to have earned millions using a VPN for work, and his income was similarly classified as illegal gains and confiscated. The core issue in these cases is that "gaining profits through VPN" is considered a violation of relevant regulations.
Controversial Focus
There is ongoing debate regarding the handling of such cases. Although strict regulatory measures have been implemented for virtual currency trading domestically, it has not yet been explicitly defined as illegal. However, the police view the use of a VPN as unlawful and consequently consider the profits gained through this means as illegal as well.
Supporters' View: This practice helps to regulate the market and crack down on illegal activities.
Opponents' View: There is no necessary connection between the legality of using a VPN and virtual currency trading, and such determinations may be seen as excessive.
Potential Risks
Engaging in virtual currency trading domestically is already fraught with uncertainty, and participating through a VPN further increases legal risks:
Illegal VPN Use: According to current regulations, using a VPN to bypass restrictions without permission is illegal.
Profits from VPN Trading are Considered Illegal Gains: The police believe that all profits obtained during VPN use can be classified as illegal gains.
Devices and Funds May Be Confiscated: Electronic devices used for trading and funds may also be seen as items related to the case and confiscated.
For those working in the crypto sphere, it is crucial to operate more cautiously in the current strict regulatory environment. Understanding and adhering to laws and regulations is key to mitigating risks.
🌹🌹🌹 Like and follow the captain to learn more about crypto knowledge!
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Your Breakpoint, My Selling Point
#SSV! Brothers and sisters! Finally stopped rising, scared the baby to death 😱😭😭😭 thought I was going to get liquidated??? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Hahahahahaha
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If you see a message, you need to verify it yourself! Don't just copy it. Take a good look to see if there is a global investment on Alipay?
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币姥爷
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December 12, 2024
Today, Alipay launched an advertisement for a digital currency fund, once again illustrating the "true fragrance" law. It is speculated that this fund is from Hong Kong, and as long as it is legally permissible, I wonder how many fund companies are thinking about making money from this. The reason Wall Street strongly promotes ETFs is that the market capitalization of Bitcoin is already large enough, and the annual management fees and transaction fees from ETFs can bring in a significant income for fund companies. Watching Binance and Coinbase's transaction fees accumulate daily is quite enviable.
Speaking of Coinbase, the daily trading volume has set a historical record. This is an inevitable development in the cryptocurrency space, but it also serves as a signal of a relatively high point in the bull market. Trading volume is a direct reflection of investor sentiment; for instance, before the 10-day plunge, DOGE's trading volume exceeded that of BTC, which is a sign of market frenzy. From this perspective, we are definitely at a relatively high point in the current bull market. Looking at the long term, most coins will have the opportunity to be bought back in the future.
Of course, in a bull market, there is no definitive peak. The main reason is that market sentiment is very difficult to control. There have been instances where a certain domestic altcoin's main player sold off, yet retail investors continued to push it up tenfold. However, we must be clear that a bull market is suitable for selling and short holding, not for discussing too much faith and value investing, especially with some newly launched altcoins, as the main players create stories just to make you their counterparty for selling.
Regarding market trends, yesterday I mentioned that there was a slight pressure at the 98,000 position, but it strongly broke above 100,000, which again indicates that the main force of Bitcoin is still present. Especially when altcoins experience sharp fluctuations, Bitcoin's lowest price has not yet dropped to 90,000. Therefore, I boosted everyone's confidence yesterday. Currently, Bitcoin is above 100,000, ETH is gradually catching up, while altcoins have not yet taken action, mainly due to the influence of funds and sentiment. Next, we need to see if Bitcoin can continue to break through; overall, Bitcoin is still constrained by the 100,000 pressure zone. If it cannot break through, the overall market will continue to adjust downwards, and we can maintain the previous position of this pressure level.
Thank you for your attention and likes. 欢迎加入专属聊天群.
Today, Alipay launched an advertisement for a digital currency fund, once again illustrating the "true fragrance" law. It is speculated that this fund is from Hong Kong, and as long as it is legally permissible, I wonder how many fund companies are thinking about making money from this. The reason Wall Street strongly promotes ETFs is that the market capitalization of Bitcoin is already large enough, and the annual management fees and transaction fees from ETFs can bring in a significant income for fund companies. Watching Binance and Coinbase's transaction fees accumulate daily is quite enviable.
Speaking of Coinbase, the daily trading volume has set a historical record. This is an inevitable development in the cryptocurrency space, but it also serves as a signal of a relatively high point in the bull market. Trading volume is a direct reflection of investor sentiment; for instance, before the 10-day plunge, DOGE's trading volume exceeded that of BTC, which is a sign of market frenzy. From this perspective, we are definitely at a relatively high point in the current bull market. Looking at the long term, most coins will have the opportunity to be bought back in the future.
Of course, in a bull market, there is no definitive peak. The main reason is that market sentiment is very difficult to control. There have been instances where a certain domestic altcoin's main player sold off, yet retail investors continued to push it up tenfold. However, we must be clear that a bull market is suitable for selling and short holding, not for discussing too much faith and value investing, especially with some newly launched altcoins, as the main players create stories just to make you their counterparty for selling.
Regarding market trends, yesterday I mentioned that there was a slight pressure at the 98,000 position, but it strongly broke above 100,000, which again indicates that the main force of Bitcoin is still present. Especially when altcoins experience sharp fluctuations, Bitcoin's lowest price has not yet dropped to 90,000. Therefore, I boosted everyone's confidence yesterday. Currently, Bitcoin is above 100,000, ETH is gradually catching up, while altcoins have not yet taken action, mainly due to the influence of funds and sentiment. Next, we need to see if Bitcoin can continue to break through; overall, Bitcoin is still constrained by the 100,000 pressure zone. If it cannot break through, the overall market will continue to adjust downwards, and we can maintain the previous position of this pressure level.
Thank you for your attention and likes. 欢迎加入专属聊天群.
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Shib can also rise, thinking too much
A major shift in the crypto market tonight! Bitcoin and Ethereum market analysis! Buy the dip in altcoins and heavily invest in 3 coins?
Last night's Microsoft shareholders' meeting did not pass, impacting Bitcoin's price to spike near 94500 again, but the morning closing price was still above the 96000 range, currently oscillating slightly within the ranges of 96000-97300-98300. The trend has not yet completed; it’s merely a small cycle adjustment, so there’s no need for panic. Especially in such a situation last night, no one dared to buy the dip; I, for one, did.
My logic is that if there is no effective breakdown below my fluctuation range, I would dare to enter when it goes down. If it's a short-term rebound in the upper range, then I'll reduce my position. If it breaks and stabilizes on the right side, that's a point to add to my position.
My logic is that if there is no effective breakdown below my fluctuation range, I would dare to enter when it goes down. If it's a short-term rebound in the upper range, then I'll reduce my position. If it breaks and stabilizes on the right side, that's a point to add to my position.
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You need to look at today's data
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分析师舒琴
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Is the cryptocurrency market going to turn around tonight?
The CPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. The market is generally pessimistic at present, and the CPI is expected to grow to 2.7%. If it meets expectations, there will be no negative impact, and if the result is lower than expected, it will be a big boost to the cryptocurrency market.
And do you know? Bitcoin has fallen into this bearish state in the past two days, but Wall Street ETFs are still adding positions. They obviously regard these declines as an opportunity to buy at the bottom rather than escape at the top. So don't misjudge the current market. This plunge is just to clear a wave of leverage, and the consolidation will continue to rise.
And the cryptocurrency market does have reasons to rise recently, because the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on the 4th of next week, which should be a turning point.
In addition, did everyone buy at the bottom of the plunge last night? Don't give up your faith, the bull market has just begun!
The CPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. The market is generally pessimistic at present, and the CPI is expected to grow to 2.7%. If it meets expectations, there will be no negative impact, and if the result is lower than expected, it will be a big boost to the cryptocurrency market.
And do you know? Bitcoin has fallen into this bearish state in the past two days, but Wall Street ETFs are still adding positions. They obviously regard these declines as an opportunity to buy at the bottom rather than escape at the top. So don't misjudge the current market. This plunge is just to clear a wave of leverage, and the consolidation will continue to rise.
And the cryptocurrency market does have reasons to rise recently, because the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on the 4th of next week, which should be a turning point.
In addition, did everyone buy at the bottom of the plunge last night? Don't give up your faith, the bull market has just begun!
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Just look, it's beautiful. No need to shout!
$SSV sees 100 knives
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Don't spray, it's a matter of profit and loss!
$SSV Restart Holding Spot
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Pretty good, I'm talking about feelings😀😀😀
$SSV Restart Holding Spot
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How many years has it been? Haven't you seen clearly about shib? Forget it, you can't wake up someone who pretends to be asleep.
$SHIB 17 days of rapid growth
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My face hurts
$1MBABYDOGE Be a little more awake, first of all, this coin has no connection to Musk at all, secondly, this coin was almost dead before it was listed on Binance, the project team must have spent a lot to get listed on Binance, so the subsequent goal is to ride Musk's coattails to make a profit off retail investors. This coin has very low circulation, and the project team engages in a lot of insider trading. This coin can only be used for swing trading; large investors can make a good profit by trading once or twice a year.
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This old man is very bad
Robert Kiyosaki predicts Bitcoin will reach $13 million
Robert Kiyosaki made an optimistic prediction about the future of Bitcoin, with its price potentially soaring to an astonishing $13 million.
Amid the surge in Bitcoin prices, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad', made a bold prediction about Bitcoin. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Kiyosaki supported the prediction of MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor that Bitcoin could reach $13 million, sparking optimism in the market community. Furthermore, Kiyosaki stated that despite Bitcoin recently hitting an all-time high, he still believes in this leading cryptocurrency, which boosts market confidence.
Amid the surge in Bitcoin prices, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of 'Rich Dad Poor Dad', made a bold prediction about Bitcoin. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Kiyosaki supported the prediction of MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor that Bitcoin could reach $13 million, sparking optimism in the market community. Furthermore, Kiyosaki stated that despite Bitcoin recently hitting an all-time high, he still believes in this leading cryptocurrency, which boosts market confidence.
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Can't it surge?
$BTC has been flat for two days, and is about to迎来大瀑布!
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It means that it's either going up or down, or just consolidating! It's up to you to grasp it!
$BTC It's time for the decisive battle of the non-farm payrolls,
The rise is fierce, and the drop is also fierce,
Bitcoin has dropped by thousands of points, while Ethereum is just under a hundred points,
This shows that Ethereum's ability to withstand drops is still very strong!
Tonight at 9:30 PM, the non-farm data will be released,
Will the market fluctuate significantly?
Personally, I don't think it will be very large,
After all, Bitcoin has already dropped in advance,
However, risk control still needs to be noted!
$SOL $BNB
#币安将上市ACX、ORCA #比特币回升至97K #SUI市场新焦点 #山寨币市场观察 #历史见证者打卡
The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment advice!
The rise is fierce, and the drop is also fierce,
Bitcoin has dropped by thousands of points, while Ethereum is just under a hundred points,
This shows that Ethereum's ability to withstand drops is still very strong!
Tonight at 9:30 PM, the non-farm data will be released,
Will the market fluctuate significantly?
Personally, I don't think it will be very large,
After all, Bitcoin has already dropped in advance,
However, risk control still needs to be noted!
$SOL $BNB
#币安将上市ACX、ORCA #比特币回升至97K #SUI市场新焦点 #山寨币市场观察 #历史见证者打卡
The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute any investment advice!
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Are you sure you are too scared to enter? Look at how high the panic index is! Greed, greed, greed!
After the washout, the market quickly rebounded. It is currently stabilizing at 97,000. This significant drop and washout is either a preparation for the next rise or an indication that the rise has ended.
In my opinion, this washout will not have a major impact on the subsequent rise. Although this washout has caused the panic level to increase, making many people hesitant to enter the market, I see it as an opportunity.
This drop has actually provided many who missed the entry point with an opportunity to enter the market. As the saying goes, a pullback is a chance to go long. After such a significant drop in the morning, the market will surely fill the gap during the day.
In my opinion, this washout will not have a major impact on the subsequent rise. Although this washout has caused the panic level to increase, making many people hesitant to enter the market, I see it as an opportunity.
This drop has actually provided many who missed the entry point with an opportunity to enter the market. As the saying goes, a pullback is a chance to go long. After such a significant drop in the morning, the market will surely fill the gap during the day.