$ETH
The variables for ETH are coming, for comrades who have been trapped for a long time, recharge your faith, the light is right ahead!
#山寨季将至？ #特朗普加密政策承诺 #美国大选后涨或跌？ #BTC创历史新高
1. ETF and policy aspects: On the first day, a net inflow of 52.29 million US dollars, Michigan has taken a groundbreaking move to become the first U.S. state pension fund to invest in Ethereum [ETH] ETF. Other states also have a great opportunity to follow suit!
After Trump took office, the first thing was to remove the SEC chairman, and the ETF staking rules are likely to change to allow staking, no longer the castrated version of the ETF!


2. Staking rate analysis
The staking rate has reached 28.7%, with an additional 25,980 ETH staked today.

3. Inflation situation analysis:
Daily inflation is around 1,500-2,000, gas fluctuates around 8-10. If the ETF flows in normally, it can perfectly offset this inflation, as long as the net inflow of the ETF maintains above 5,000 daily.

4. Market capitalization ratio and exchange rate with BTC
Market cap ratio is 13.72%, exchange rate is 0.03757, weekly line has stopped falling, undervalued.

5. The main bearish factor is that the foundation has been shamelessly offloading.

First, observe the situation after Trump takes office on January 20 and whether to reduce positions. The Japan meeting on January 24 poses interest rate risks, do not be fully invested.


The probability of the U.S. establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 is 48%. According to ChainCatcher reports, the prediction market Polymarket data shows that the probability of the U.S. establishing a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 is 48%. This prediction contract has a trading volume of $121,145 and will expire at the end of 2025.

利好，涨

Enduring until Trump takes office

$PNUT Market Change
On January 14, according to official news, Coinbase will increase support for Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) on the Solana network (SPL tokens). If liquidity conditions are met, trading will begin on January 14, 2025, at 9 AM Pacific Time or later. Once the supply of this asset is sufficient, the PNUT-USD trading pair will be gradually launched.
Comrades, don’t panic about the market, first accumulate BTC and other mainstream assets, once it stabilizes, you can borrow to buy the second batch of first-tier altcoins. For a more conservative approach, wait until the CPI data is released on Wednesday night before taking action; for the aggressive ones, you can start to take a position now. Trump will be back in office on January 20, and the market will rebound just as it has fallen! Good news keeps coming, this is the last technical adjustment before a big bull run!
Trading comes down to seven words: be true to your conscience and go with the trend!

速度抄底

Thanks to Dog Zhuang for the low-priced chips, the bad news has landed, a tough 92500, bottom fishing

1. Positive fundamentals:
1. Gravity announced its access cooperation with more than 25 million users of TokenPocket, significantly increasing the project’s exposure and user base.
2. Combined with news stimulation, the short-term market sentiment of this token has significantly enhanced.

Technical analysis:
1. The current price is 0.0384 U, with an increase of nearly 19% in 24 hours, and market trading volume has increased significantly.
2. On the daily chart, the price broke through the moving averages EMA(5) and EMA(10), the RSI indicator showed a strong overbought status (RSI>80), and the momentum increased.
Bayes' theorem analysis:
1. Prior probability: Based on historical data and news promotion, the probability of breakthrough after major good news is estimated to be 60%.
2. Conditional probability: Combined with the current strong rise, the 24-hour trading volume increased by more than 170 million USDT, and under favorable technical indicators, the probability of reaching a new high increased to 75%.
result:
Through Bayesian updating, the probability of G breaking through 0.05 U in the short term is about 45% to 55%, but we need to be wary of the risk of a high correction. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in trading volume and the continuation of market sentiment.

As can be seen from the chart, the main net inflow of G/USDT in the past 5 days was 88.86M, while the net inflow of large orders in the past 24 hours was as high as 87.12M. This shows that the capital inflows in the past day accounted for the vast majority, showing the strong intervention of main funds in the short term, and market sentiment is biased towards the bulls.
Operation suggestions:
1. Short-term traders: The current capital flow shows an obvious buying trend. You can focus on breaking through the key pressure level (0.04729U) and chase the rise in the short term, but you need to set a strict stop loss.
2. Medium and long-term investors: Build positions in batches near the early support level, but pay attention to the risks during the February unlocking period and appropriately reduce positions to avoid risks before unlocking.
3. Pay attention to risks: Pay close attention to changes in capital flows and market sentiment reversal signals, especially when capital flows decrease significantly.

Operation suggestions:
Add the spot to the contract, the spot can be thrown to Big G's platform to receive airdrop bonuses, and the contract can be used to recover the spot cost.

According to documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, MicroStrategy purchased 1,070 units of $BTC for approximately $101 million in cash on December 30 and December 31, with an average purchase price of about $94,000.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor announced on the X platform that MicroStrategy achieved a 48.0% BTC return in the fourth quarter of 2024, and a 74.3% BTC return in the 2024 fiscal year. As of January 5, 2025, MicroStrategy holds 447,470 bitcoins.

On January 5th, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor once again hinted at increasing his holdings of $BTC on the X platform. He has previously posted hints about increasing his Bitcoin holdings for 9 consecutive weeks.
#比特币走势观察 #BTC走势分析

It's coming soon, feel free to board. It was included in the roadmap last month, and there was a wave of cargo at that time, around mid-December.

0.2

Get the good news from CB implemented

$BIO
Caution with spot trading, airdrop premium is too high, currently experiencing a sell-off, 50% of public offering is directly unlocked, the remaining 50% is unlocked monthly.

There are two rounds of private placement, raising a total of 2.3 million USD, with valuations of 35 million USD and 69 million USD respectively; there are three rounds of public offering (i.e., BIO Genesis auction), raising a total of 27.9 million USD, with valuations of 85 million USD / 142 million USD / 219 million USD in the three rounds.

Private placement investors: account for 13.60% of total supply; public offering investors: account for 20.00% of total supply. The costs are as follows: Private Placement · Pre-seed round: cost approximately 0.01054 USD, current floating profit 91.62 times;

In the seed round: cost approximately 0.02078 USD, current floating profit 46.48 times;

Public Offering · Round 1: cost approximately 0.0256 USD, current floating profit 37.73 times; ·

Round 2: cost approximately 0.04277 USD, current floating profit 22.58 times; ·

Round 3: cost approximately 0.06596 USD, current floating profit 14.64 times.

This operation is possible

Misleading students, FTX's money has started to accompany them

Three major incremental funds have arrived. FTX officially begins compensation of 16 billion U, institutions resume large ETF net inflow, and MSTR continues to purchase 2 billion U worth of $BTC

On January 4, according to official news, the FTX debtor reorganization plan will take effect on January 3, 2025. To qualify for distribution, customers and other creditors must complete pre-distribution conditions, including selecting a distribution agent on the FTX debtor customer portal page. The initial distribution will be made to holders with approved claims in the plan within 60 days after the effective date (January 3, 2025). According to the FTX plan, the first batch of 'Convenience Classes' users will receive compensation first, including users with claims of $50,000 or less. Registration and payment dates for other categories of claims will be announced later. The FTX debtor reminds customers to always be vigilant against phishing emails that may look like FTX debtors, as well as scam websites that may appear to be from channels resembling the FTX debtor customer portal.

On January 4, according to Farside Investors data, ARK's ARKB had a net inflow of $222 million yesterday, and Bitwise's BITB had a net inflow of $61.1 million. In addition, VanEck's HODL had a net inflow of $5.6 million, and Grayscale's mini BTC had a net inflow of $8.7 million.
#FTT赔款 #BTC走势分析 #ETFvsBTC

MicroStrategy announced plans to issue up to $2 billion in perpetual preferred shares through a public underwriting. (At current prices, this could buy over 20,000 BTC)
The preferred shares may have features such as being convertible to Class A common stock, paying cash dividends, and having redemption provisions. This fundraising is part of the company's '21/21 Plan,' aimed at strengthening the balance sheet and further increasing Bitcoin holdings.
The issuance is expected to take place in the first quarter of 2025, but whether it will proceed and the final terms will depend on market and other factors, and the company may not pursue this issuance.

#BIO Pulling out the shorts
1. The first wave of selling pressure from the public offering and Binance airdrop has been exhausted
2. Binance 8:15 contract
3. Institutional endorsement, Binance Labs investment
4. Desci track leader, temporarily looking at 1U start