12/25 Market Intraday Trend Analysis and Operational Guide

From the daily trend of Bitcoin/Ethereum, the current KDJ and MACD indicators show that bearish strength continues to weaken, the BOLL indicator is overall in a downward trend, while the MA5 daily moving average in the main chart shows a slight upward trend, but the MA10 daily moving average still has a certain suppressive effect, and the MA30 daily moving average is in a flat oscillation state, indicating that there is relatively strong resistance above in the short term.

Looking at the 12-hour level, the KDJ golden cross continues to strengthen, but the overall situation is similar to the daily chart, which means that the current short-term rebound is a technical correction at the weekly level, and strong resistance still exists above. Therefore, if the short-term cannot break through the strong resistance level at the high point for a long time, investors need to be cautious of the potential risk of a sharp drop after a rally.

In summary, the intraday operational advice is to primarily adopt a short-selling strategy on rebounds, with specific operational points as follows:
Bitcoin (BTC): Short-sell in the range of 98500 - 99000, with a target price set at 96500;
Ethereum (ETH): Short-sell near 3500 - 3530, with a target price of 3430. Investors should closely monitor market trend changes and flexibly adjust operational strategies to respond to various possible situations, reduce investment risks, and seize market opportunities.

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Bitcoin Strongly Rises, Bull Market Signals Beginning to Appear?

Bitcoin began a strong upward trend yesterday from the price level of 94,000, soaring to around 99,500, achieving a significant increase of over 5,000 points. This market movement demonstrates strong bull market characteristics.

Currently, the 4-hour EMA moving average resistance level has been successfully broken, with the price retracing to the rebound area after a previous accelerated decline for consolidation. Once the smaller resistance levels in this area successfully convert into support, the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing to push upward will significantly increase. In terms of key price levels, it's important to focus on the support around 96,500, as the support situation at this price level is crucial for the market direction; meanwhile, attention should be on the 99,500 level above. If it can break through and stabilize at this position, a new round of upward momentum may begin, and the subsequent trend deserves close monitoring and in-depth analysis.

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I am optimistic about the market outlook for next year, so I have a higher tolerance for pullbacks at this stage. As of now, I believe the trend is similar to 2021, and the real consideration for liquidation is likely to be in the second half of next year.

Even in the case of extreme pessimism in the market, my bottom line is to convert assets into BTC and hold half of my position, firmly believing that prices will rebound next year. The trigger point for holding half of my position is if BTC falls below 85K, but given the current situation, this possibility is small; I lean towards the continuation of a bull market.

It is important to note that this is just my personal trading strategy and is for reference only. My current risk tolerance is decent, but everyone has different costs, so investment decisions should be made cautiously and one must be responsible for their own funds.

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12.25 Market Analysis and Operation Strategy
On the daily level, yesterday's price fell to the lower track of the Bollinger Band and then rebounded, strongly rising to around 99,000. It is currently below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Band opening is extending horizontally.

On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Band opening has expanded, but the price trend is unclear. The current price is fluctuating in a narrow range around 98,000. The hourly line shows a correction trend, and it is possible to consider buying on dips during the day.

Operational suggestion: Buy in the range of 97,000 - 96,500, with a target price of 99,000.

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The midnight Bitcoin market is quite turbulent. Although the volatility is slightly smaller compared to last night, there is still nearly two thousand points of room for operation overall. We maintained a low long strategy at midnight, successfully capturing the continuation of the bullish trend, easily gaining over a thousand points in profit. When the market retraced afterwards, we took the opportunity to enter short positions, again earning hundreds of points in profit from the decline. I believe that whether you are enthusiastic about midnight trading or an early riser making trades, as long as you follow the points I provided for operation, the profits will surely be considerable.

From the current market situation, it can be seen that the market has entered a consolidation and repair phase. The Bollinger Bands on the hourly level are trending upward, with the price running between the middle and upper bands. The buying and selling momentum is relatively balanced and there is no significant increase in volume, indicating that the market is stabilizing. From the four-hour level, it can be observed that the market has attempted to break the previously mentioned 99000 level twice at midnight without achieving an effective breakthrough. The resistance above is significant, and a thorough breakthrough still requires accumulation of strength. We maintain a bullish outlook for the morning layout and will continue to use a low long strategy for operations.

Bitcoin: 97200 - 97600 long, target looking towards 99500.
Ethereum: 3420 - 3450 long, target looking towards 3550.

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Day Trading Strategies for Tuesday, December 24

Based on the current market situation, Bitcoin once again launched an upward attack this morning, testing the 95,000 line. However, it fell back after encountering strong resistance. The current price has returned to around 94,000 and fell into a volatile pattern.

Judging from the 4-hour trend chart, although there is a retracement after testing the high, the magnitude of the fall and the overall structural condition are not enough to cause fundamental changes in the existing market pattern.

Even if this rebound exists, it can only be regarded as a rebound correction trend within a local range.

Unless today's price can further break through the preset range and close at a high level, the market structure will not change significantly.

Judging from various factors, the operating strategy for Bitcoin should still be based on holding short orders, seize appropriate high-level opportunities, and once again deploy short-term short orders as the leading idea.

In this market environment, as long as the price rebounds, it can be regarded as a favorable opportunity to place short-term short orders again.

Action suggestions:

In terms of Bitcoin operations, it is recommended to carry out short selling operations near 95,000, and the target price can be focused on the 93,000-92,500 range.

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The daily K-line has formed a doji star pattern, and the horizontal support at the neckline level has once again withstood the test. Additionally, from the perspective of the daily RSI momentum, there is limited space below, and there is a need for an upward turn to recover. Before a breakdown occurs at this critical position of 9.2 without a rebound being obstructed, it is not advisable to pursue short positions.

From the analysis of the 30-minute trend structure after 9.22, there is a possibility of forming a short-term bottom. Although the trading volume has begun to decrease during the adjustment process, based on a comprehensive assessment at the daily level, the cost-effectiveness of going long in the short term is relatively higher.

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Today's Market Analysis

Recently, the K-line has shown a significant downward trend with noticeable fluctuations. After a price retreat from the high, it has not managed to achieve an effective rebound.

From the daily chart, the continuous appearance of bearish candles indicates that there is substantial selling pressure in the market.

Currently, both the DIF and DEA indicator values are negative, but the MACD histogram is gradually shortening, which may signal that the bearish momentum is slowly weakening.

The RSI indicator is approaching the neutral zone; it has previously entered the oversold area, but as of now, it has not provided a clear directional signal.

Looking at the moving averages, the 7-hour EMA is below the 30-hour EMA, and the 120-hour EMA is well above the current price, all of which indicate that the market is still in a downward trend in the short term.

The intraday trading suggestion is to follow the trend and short when prices are high; everyone must implement proper risk protection measures!

The following trading ranges are for reference only:
If the price approaches around 95000, consider shorting with a target of 92000;
If the price touches around 91500, consider going long with a target of 93500.
Wishing everyone good luck!

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12.24 Market Analysis and Trading Guidance
The daily chart shows a trend of four consecutive bearish candles, with the MACD indicator continuously releasing bearish energy, and the KDJ indicator diverging downward after crossing. Overall, the intraday market is weak, and it is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy.

The four-hour closing price has consistently failed to break through the middle track, remaining in the lower zone for a long time, indicating significant pressure from above.

Although there have been rebound phenomena in the smaller time frames, none have effectively sustained, repeatedly retracing after being pressured at resistance levels.

Short at the large range rebound to 96500 - 97000,
Target price 94000

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December 24 Market Analysis and BTC Trading Guidelines

Yesterday's bearish outlook was validated by the market, with prices oscillating downwards. Although the key level of 92000 was not reached, the overall trend was consistent. Swing trading yielded decent profits, while short-term trades experienced slight losses.

1. Four-hour Situation: The K-line is under heavy pressure from the middle Bollinger Band, oscillating in the middle-lower band range, with the Bollinger Bands opening downwards and weak rebound, making it difficult for a short-term upward breakthrough.
2. Daily Pattern: The coin price shows a double bottom near 92000, but has continued to test the lower Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger Bands also opening downwards, indicating potential for expansion in the lower range.

Intraday trading should focus on shorting during rebounds. BTC in the range of 95800 - 96500,
Target 92000 - 90000, if broken, look to move down to 88000.
Stop loss: 96800, the market is volatile, manage risks strictly!

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Market capitalization share of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin dominance: Bitcoin's share of the total market value is often used to measure the market's dependence on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's market dominance remains at a high level, it generally means that the overall market sentiment is positive and the bull market may continue.

Ethereum dominance: Ethereum also performed strongly during the bull market. If Ethereum's share increases, it means that the demand for application layers such as smart contracts and DeFi is growing.

Currently, BTC's market capitalization accounts for 57.4%, and Ethereum's is 12.1%. In the big bull market of 2021, BTC's share fell to 40% at the lowest, while ETH's share rose to 18.5%. Looking back at the 2021 bull market, BTC's share continued to rise during 2020, and then fell at the top of the bull market, while ETH's situation was the opposite. Similarly, you can also check the trend in 2017.

Today, from the perspective of BTC's share trend, it is constantly increasing, which means that energy is accumulating, and it is impossible to have entered a bear market at the moment.

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11.23 Midday Analysis

The Bitcoin price rebounded after hitting a low this morning, stabilizing after a minimum drop to 93655, then surged to a high of 96488 before slightly retreating. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears has become the main rhythm. Ethereum experienced a stepwise decline in the early morning, hitting a low of 3219, followed by a sideways movement, and then surged to 3362 before coming under pressure in the afternoon.

The current market is leaning towards weakness, with the four-hour chart showing a weak pullback trend. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands presents strong resistance, having been tested multiple times without breaking. Support is at 93000, with two tests of the low this morning both being pulled back up, but the rebound lacks strength. The daily chart shows a doji with long upper and lower shadows, indicating balanced energy between bulls and bears. In the afternoon, it is advisable to buy on dips and seize entry opportunities.

Trading Suggestions:
Buy Bitcoin at 94000 - 94500, target 96500.
Buy Ethereum around 3250, target 3350.

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During the early trading period, the market directly conducted a secondary test of the bottom. However, given the current situation, the support strength at the bottom appears to be weak. The levels of 94000 and 3200 reached during the early session may still be tested again within the day.

Considering the current rebound trend and relatively favorable position, it is suggested to estimate a downward movement towards the early session bottom testing range near 95000 - 94500 and 3280 - 3250, based on the Fibonacci 0.5 level of the smaller wave segments, which is 96500 and the resistance zone of 3360 - 3380.

For this tentative short-term bearish operation, the defensive point should not be set too large to prevent the market from breaking through and accelerating upwards, which could lead to a loss of control. It is recommended to focus on the defensive points at 96500 and 3420.

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Christmas is approaching, and two pieces of news have emerged.

The bad news is: Before Christmas, it is difficult for the market to show a rebound upward trend. Looking back at several previous bull markets, the market trend during Christmas has often been downward.

The good news is: In bull market years, there is a high probability of a strong rebound after Christmas, which is known as the 'Christmas rally.' However, in reality, this may just be a manifestation of the altcoin market in a bull market.

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December 23 Bitcoin Trend and Market Analysis: Long First, Short Later Strategy.

From the daily perspective, the current coin price is at the bottom area, in the process of a short-term rebound. The short-term resistance levels are at 96700 and 97400. In terms of trading strategy for the day, a high short strategy should be the primary focus, with low long as a supplementary measure.

With the current quote at 95700, a small long position can be taken, expecting to take profits near 96600. Then, watch for the testing situation at the 96700 resistance level; if this resistance level is broken, consider entering a short position at the second layout point, targeting 94500 and 93200.

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Ethereum Trend Analysis on December 23:

After a rapid rebound at the 3100 price level last Friday, the market showed a fluctuating downward trend over the weekend, closing the weekly candle with a engulfing bearish candle, forming a top formation structure, indicating extremely strong bearish forces.

The daily K-line body is showing a downward trend along the MA5 moving average, and attention should be paid to the gains and losses of the 60-day moving average. It is significant whether today’s closing can hold above this moving average.

The overall trading strategy for this week is to set up medium to long-term short positions when encountering rebounds below the 20-day moving average. If the price remains above 3100 without making a new low, short-term long positions can be attempted, but if it breaks below the 3100 level, stop losses should be executed immediately.

Attempting to catch a rebound against the trend carries high risks, but defending the 60-day moving average is worth a try. It is essential to remember one principle: the long position must be smaller than the short position.

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The MACD indicator for Bitcoin shows that both the current DIF and DEA are negative, and the MACD histogram is also in the negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 35.9, close to the oversold area, but has not yet entered extreme oversold conditions, which may indicate a demand for a technical rebound.

The MACD indicator for Ethereum shows that both the current DIF and DEA are negative, but the gap is narrowing. The MACD histogram has turned from green, indicating a weakening of downward momentum, and a rebound may occur. The RSI is at 36.1, close to the oversold range, indicating the possibility of a technical rebound.

Bitcoin price is at 94,000, with a stop at 93,500 and a target of 97,000.

Ethereum price is at 3,200, with a stop at 3,150 and a target of 3,350.

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ETH Market Trend Analysis (4h)

Revisiting the ETH chart trends, there are currently no significant signs of a price bottom. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the market conditions, there is also no strong support level at present. If prices continue to decline, the support levels to watch will be around 3089 near the ema200 moving average and the area around 3016, which is near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

According to the information presented by the market data, these two points will become key support positions for Ethereum, along with the important psychological level of 3000. Therefore, if you intend to enter the market, it is advisable to make decisions based on market reactions near the support levels.

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The current location is unclear. If the physical K-line can touch 94K, it will be easier to judge. It is currently difficult to determine whether this is the early start of the second or even third wave of market conditions, or the end of the first wave of market conditions.

The key is that the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins (alts) differ significantly. Just focusing on the current trend of altcoins, we can determine that they have shown a short-term trend, while the long-term bull trend still exists. From an index perspective, the long-term trend of 193 – 450 – 330 remains intact.

If we only look at the trend of Bitcoin, its short-term is just a correction, and the long-term trend is currently minimally affected.

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Five tricks to control the market

First, avoid chasing highs and choose low-priced varieties. As long as the selected varieties are not too bad and there is no risk of being delisted by major exchanges, the market will come sooner or later.

Second, spot trading should be medium- and long-term, not short-term. Short-term trading requires high technology, mentality, time and energy. The advantage of retail investors is time. Look at the weekly and daily lines and intervene at low points and wait.

Third, the number of varieties should be small. Do not exceed three varieties within the market value of 500 million. The probability of doubling when buying two varieties at the same time is higher than ten.

Fourth, lower expectations. Don't always expect several times or dozens of times a year, don't sell when it rises, and ride the roller coaster repeatedly. Those who are not good at selling can sell near the historical high point when the main rising wave meets.

Fifth, reduce the frequency of transactions. Retail investors should not trade frequently every day and week, as there is a high probability of losses. Although it is hard to be short, you must overcome it. Trade once a month and grasp it accurately.

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