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婉心的财富日记
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婉心的财富日记
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On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin began a rally and has now broken through 99,000. However, during the rise, there is no need to become overly inflated; the possibility of a direct takeoff in the short term is low, especially during the Christmas period.
It is expected that this rebound will reach the 100,000-102,000 range, as the overall direction is still in a 4-hour level correction. Although the bullish forces are currently strong, it is anticipated that if the market tests the high points again, it may still face significant selling pressure.
If the upper resistance cannot be broken, there is still a chance for a pullback to seek lower support. Therefore, a rebound of Bitcoin to 100,000-102,000 presents a shorting opportunity, and there will likely be another wave of correction structurally.
Ethereum is also synchronously rebounding to the 3,600-3,650 range for shorting.
It is expected that this rebound will reach the 100,000-102,000 range, as the overall direction is still in a 4-hour level correction. Although the bullish forces are currently strong, it is anticipated that if the market tests the high points again, it may still face significant selling pressure.
If the upper resistance cannot be broken, there is still a chance for a pullback to seek lower support. Therefore, a rebound of Bitcoin to 100,000-102,000 presents a shorting opportunity, and there will likely be another wave of correction structurally.
Ethereum is also synchronously rebounding to the 3,600-3,650 range for shorting.
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Bitcoin broke through the range in the evening, breaking through the resistance in one fell swoop, and the 1-hour level rebound was established. Don't rush to short if the rebound continues. We should continue to be bullish in the 99000-100000 area in the evening!
In the early hours of Tuesday, Bitcoin fell back to more than 96500-96200, with a target of 98500-99000,
Ethereum fell back to more than 3450-3420, with a target of 3550-3580!
In the early hours of Tuesday, Bitcoin fell back to more than 96500-96200, with a target of 98500-99000,
Ethereum fell back to more than 3450-3420, with a target of 3550-3580!
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Keep the market simple, let's not complicate it. Firstly, today's volatility may not be significant, so all trades should be focused on short-term movements. This evening, I emphasize a bullish outlook on Bitcoin at 96,000. The current high has already reached 96,400, and a successful rebound has occurred. This information is publicly available for everyone to benefit!
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Understanding Tuesday Evening Bitcoin in One Sentence: After hitting a low, it rebounds; short-term fluctuations are normalized. The Christmas and New Year holidays are starting, and it is expected that there will be a slight rebound during today's fluctuations, with Bitcoin expected to rise to 96,000 this evening!
Recent evening suggestions: Buy Bitcoin on dips at 94,000-93,700, with a target of 95,500-96,000.
Buy Ethereum on dips at 3,400-3,380, with a target of 3,480-3,520!
Recent evening suggestions: Buy Bitcoin on dips at 94,000-93,700, with a target of 95,500-96,000.
Buy Ethereum on dips at 3,400-3,380, with a target of 3,480-3,520!
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Tuesday Evening Analysis
Yesterday, Bitcoin once again dipped below 92,000 points,
but this time, altcoins did not follow the downward trend.
This second test is actually a healthy market adjustment behavior,
after all, no one in the market has an endless supply of chips to keep dumping,
everything has its limits, and extremes must reverse.
Currently, in a bullish market environment,
the market has gradually weakened after several cleanups,
the downward momentum has been diminishing.
Regarding Bitcoin,
we should maintain a rational and forward-looking perspective on its development,
the so-called "eternal slow bull" viewpoint is not absolute,
the market cannot only rise without falling,
nor will it always be in a downward trend.
Now, Bitcoin has formed a double bottom rebound pattern around 92,500,
from a technical analysis perspective,
this pattern is relatively stable,
it is undoubtedly a positive signal for bulls to initiate a rebound.
Therefore, today there may be opportunities for short-term long positions in the market!
On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin is expected to retrace to 93,000-92,500 for long positions, targeting 95,500-96,000,
Ethereum is expected to retrace to 3,330-3,300 for long positions, targeting 3,450-3,480!
Yesterday, Bitcoin once again dipped below 92,000 points,
but this time, altcoins did not follow the downward trend.
This second test is actually a healthy market adjustment behavior,
after all, no one in the market has an endless supply of chips to keep dumping,
everything has its limits, and extremes must reverse.
Currently, in a bullish market environment,
the market has gradually weakened after several cleanups,
the downward momentum has been diminishing.
Regarding Bitcoin,
we should maintain a rational and forward-looking perspective on its development,
the so-called "eternal slow bull" viewpoint is not absolute,
the market cannot only rise without falling,
nor will it always be in a downward trend.
Now, Bitcoin has formed a double bottom rebound pattern around 92,500,
from a technical analysis perspective,
this pattern is relatively stable,
it is undoubtedly a positive signal for bulls to initiate a rebound.
Therefore, today there may be opportunities for short-term long positions in the market!
On Tuesday evening, Bitcoin is expected to retrace to 93,000-92,500 for long positions, targeting 95,500-96,000,
Ethereum is expected to retrace to 3,330-3,300 for long positions, targeting 3,450-3,480!
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The main capital continues to withdraw, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin remains unchanged, currently in a major cycle correction phase, and this trend will not end quickly.
It is expected that the price will continue to decline, at least falling to the range of 92000-90000, and the short-term market is not optimistic.
Ethereum did not break through 3400 during the day, with support to watch at 3100 below.
It is expected that the price will continue to decline, at least falling to the range of 92000-90000, and the short-term market is not optimistic.
Ethereum did not break through 3400 during the day, with support to watch at 3100 below.
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Bitcoin suffered a heavy blow last week, with the largest price drop approaching 15%. This drop hit the peak of the year. Of course, after experiencing a sharp drop in the previous period, the market is expected to gradually return to a stable state this week. If there are signs of stabilization, it will be the best opportunity to enter the market and do more. The U.S. stock market will open normally tonight, MSTR will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100, and the U.S. stock market will close early tomorrow night, which is Eastern Time on the 24th. The market sentiment before the market closes is very important, which directly affects the market sentiment during the Christmas period. Of course, there are still expectations in January next year. The volatility of Bitcoin may last longer than expected. The longer the volatility, the smoother the subsequent unilateral rise. There is no big problem, and the trend is still there. In the short-term market, Bitcoin is a bit erratic. After the rebound, it is not stable, but falling. It is currently in the first ABC of the decline, which has not yet been completed. So today's plan is to go short first, and then operate the rising B wave around the support. The upper pressure of Bitcoin is 96800, 97200,
The lower support is 93000, 91000!
On Monday afternoon, Bitcoin rebounded to 96800-97200 short, the target is 94000-93000,
Ethereum rebounded to 3420-3450 short, the target is 3300-3200!
The lower support is 93000, 91000!
On Monday afternoon, Bitcoin rebounded to 96800-97200 short, the target is 94000-93000,
Ethereum rebounded to 3420-3450 short, the target is 3300-3200!
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The market is full of twists and turns; how accurate are the strategies? The market will naturally verify.
As the weekend approaches, we stand firm in our viewpoint and continue to be optimistic about the rebound trend. This conviction has never wavered. Bitcoin has rebounded over 1200 points to more than 96000, while Ethereum has similarly gained 100 points to over 3300!
Among the vast waters, take only a ladle; take what you need, do not be greedy, do not seek conflict, manage your gains and losses with ease, and ensure a steady victory!
As the weekend approaches, we stand firm in our viewpoint and continue to be optimistic about the rebound trend. This conviction has never wavered. Bitcoin has rebounded over 1200 points to more than 96000, while Ethereum has similarly gained 100 points to over 3300!
Among the vast waters, take only a ladle; take what you need, do not be greedy, do not seek conflict, manage your gains and losses with ease, and ensure a steady victory!
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Ethereum 3330 long position accurately entered,
now has gained more than 50 points in profit,
targeting above 3550, continue to hold for further increase!
now has gained more than 50 points in profit,
targeting above 3550, continue to hold for further increase!
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A one-sentence understanding of Bitcoin over the weekend: an intraday rebound was blocked at the 100,000 mark, but there hasn't been much of a pullback; it remains stable and fluctuates at a local high. It is expected that there will be further upward movement over the weekend, but overall it is still a rebound.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin retraced to the 96,300-96,000 range, targeting 100,000-101,000.
Ethereum retraced to the 3,330-3,300 range, targeting 3,500-3,550!
Over the weekend, Bitcoin retraced to the 96,300-96,000 range, targeting 100,000-101,000.
Ethereum retraced to the 3,330-3,300 range, targeting 3,500-3,550!
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Recently, the market has once again witnessed the familiar scenario of 'Americans dumping and Chinese buying'. Bitcoin's price briefly fell below 93,000, and numerous altcoins also collectively plummeted.
After Bitcoin dipped to around 92,000 yesterday, it stabilized and rebounded. However, the downward trend within the current range has not yet fully reversed. The current rebound belongs to wave B, and it is now close to the critical resistance zone of 100,000, with the rebound strength significantly diminishing. It is expected that over the weekend, when Bitcoin's price reaches the range of 100,000-102,000, it will again test the 90,000 mark, after which a new round of upward trend may begin.
The key points for Ethereum's rebound this time are in the range of 3,600-3,650. When the price reaches this range, short positions can be synchronized, with the lower target looking towards 3,300-3,200.
The evolution of trends takes time. From the actual price movements, it must inevitably go through repeated struggles and contests between bulls and bears before it can be established.
After Bitcoin dipped to around 92,000 yesterday, it stabilized and rebounded. However, the downward trend within the current range has not yet fully reversed. The current rebound belongs to wave B, and it is now close to the critical resistance zone of 100,000, with the rebound strength significantly diminishing. It is expected that over the weekend, when Bitcoin's price reaches the range of 100,000-102,000, it will again test the 90,000 mark, after which a new round of upward trend may begin.
The key points for Ethereum's rebound this time are in the range of 3,600-3,650. When the price reaches this range, short positions can be synchronized, with the lower target looking towards 3,300-3,200.
The evolution of trends takes time. From the actual price movements, it must inevitably go through repeated struggles and contests between bulls and bears before it can be established.
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In the early trading, Bitcoin was bearish at 94,000, which was successfully cashed out. The bears won. This time, Powell's market crash was beyond everyone's expectations.
The 4-hour oversold signal has not yet been triggered. It seems that there is still a possibility of further decline to form oversold conditions. At present, Bitcoin focuses on the support of 90,000, and Ethereum focuses on the support of 3,000. The market has fluctuated and is bearish in the past two days. The rebound still gives opportunities for bears.
The 4-hour oversold signal has not yet been triggered. It seems that there is still a possibility of further decline to form oversold conditions. At present, Bitcoin focuses on the support of 90,000, and Ethereum focuses on the support of 3,000. The market has fluctuated and is bearish in the past two days. The rebound still gives opportunities for bears.
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Understand Bitcoin on Friday in one sentence: Bitcoin was pushed down by Powell, and the strong rebound after the sharp drop was still swallowed down, and it is likely to continue to run towards 94,000 at a low level!
On Friday morning, Bitcoin rebounded to 99,000-99,500 short, with a target of 96,000-95,000
On Friday morning, Bitcoin rebounded to 99,000-99,500 short, with a target of 96,000-95,000
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The evening bullish expectations were thwarted, as Bitcoin's situation took a sharp turn in the early morning, plummeting all the way down and ultimately breaking the key support level of 98,000, resulting in a one-sided decline. This drop was indeed unexpected, hitting shorts hard, with stop losses of 800 points and 50 points! To be precise, after the Federal Reserve's actions, it's a washout phase.
Market traps always lurk nearby, and investor greed is like cancer; to eradicate it, one must undergo a painful and thorough surgical procedure for a chance to survive. Failing to restrain greed and allowing risks to drift away leads to an out-of-control situation, which is the reason for substantial losses for most.
Of course, in such a violent downtrend, those who need to stop losses should do so; stop losses are not frightening. What is frightening is holding onto positions and mindlessly adding to them. At this time, the trading system becomes particularly important; the system is not about helping us earn money, but rather about restraining us from losing money. Losing less is gaining.
Market traps always lurk nearby, and investor greed is like cancer; to eradicate it, one must undergo a painful and thorough surgical procedure for a chance to survive. Failing to restrain greed and allowing risks to drift away leads to an out-of-control situation, which is the reason for substantial losses for most.
Of course, in such a violent downtrend, those who need to stop losses should do so; stop losses are not frightening. What is frightening is holding onto positions and mindlessly adding to them. At this time, the trading system becomes particularly important; the system is not about helping us earn money, but rather about restraining us from losing money. Losing less is gaining.
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When will the tug-of-war between bulls and bears end? Old Powell watches the excitement next to him.
Last night, Bitcoin was pressured down to the lowest point of 98,800 due to the interest rate decision. From the current technical trend, Bitcoin is falling faster than expected, representing a swift move by the bears. Once the bears have quickly moved down to their target, it also means that in the short term, it will enter a range of oscillation around the midpoint of 98,000-108,000. After the negative news is fully priced in, there is almost no space below in the short term.
In the morning session, it tested the support at 98,800, completing a weak to strong transition at the low point. Next, it will rely on 98,000 as a short-term support area to rebound again. Therefore, after the bears have quickly moved down, it is not advisable to continue shorting or being bearish in the short term. The importance of 98,000 was also emphasized in the morning, and it is expected to continue rebounding over the next couple of days.
Currently, the market is certain to sweep, but the space is uncertain. At least since October, it has been like this: how much it rises, how much it falls back, then how much it falls, and how much it rises back. So in the next couple of days, seize the opportunity to buy low on the pullback. We will continue to focus on the support near 98,800; the lower the position, the more confidence in holding positions!
Time correction, steady rise, or space correction, deep squats confirming support for further increases.
As for Ethereum, let's lower the target a bit and see if it can reach around 3,500 this evening. If it hits the 3,520-3,500 area, we can go long and look for 3,700-3,800!
A new beginning starts from holding low. Once the low is held and the high is broken, we look for acceleration, gradually seeking the previous turning points!
Last night, Bitcoin was pressured down to the lowest point of 98,800 due to the interest rate decision. From the current technical trend, Bitcoin is falling faster than expected, representing a swift move by the bears. Once the bears have quickly moved down to their target, it also means that in the short term, it will enter a range of oscillation around the midpoint of 98,000-108,000. After the negative news is fully priced in, there is almost no space below in the short term.
In the morning session, it tested the support at 98,800, completing a weak to strong transition at the low point. Next, it will rely on 98,000 as a short-term support area to rebound again. Therefore, after the bears have quickly moved down, it is not advisable to continue shorting or being bearish in the short term. The importance of 98,000 was also emphasized in the morning, and it is expected to continue rebounding over the next couple of days.
Currently, the market is certain to sweep, but the space is uncertain. At least since October, it has been like this: how much it rises, how much it falls back, then how much it falls, and how much it rises back. So in the next couple of days, seize the opportunity to buy low on the pullback. We will continue to focus on the support near 98,800; the lower the position, the more confidence in holding positions!
Time correction, steady rise, or space correction, deep squats confirming support for further increases.
As for Ethereum, let's lower the target a bit and see if it can reach around 3,500 this evening. If it hits the 3,520-3,500 area, we can go long and look for 3,700-3,800!
A new beginning starts from holding low. Once the low is held and the high is broken, we look for acceleration, gradually seeking the previous turning points!
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Interest rates were lowered as expected, but the market's movements surprised most people. Bitcoin plummeted, US stocks crashed, and the US dollar soared, turning the world upside down. The global order hasn't changed; the hegemony of the US dollar remains. Indeed, the US benefits from interest rate hikes, and the US still benefits from rate cuts, turning the situation around at will.
Regarding the Bitcoin support point at 98,800, it was already anticipated early in the morning, so the morning dip was accurately timed for a bottom buy near 99,000, targeting 101,500-102,300, securing over 2,000 points on the long position!
A new beginning starts from holding the lows; holding the lows and breaking the highs will lead to acceleration!
Regarding the Bitcoin support point at 98,800, it was already anticipated early in the morning, so the morning dip was accurately timed for a bottom buy near 99,000, targeting 101,500-102,300, securing over 2,000 points on the long position!
A new beginning starts from holding the lows; holding the lows and breaking the highs will lead to acceleration!
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Powell's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts has led to a significant setback in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin dropping sharply by 4%. Powell stated that the Federal Reserve has no intention of holding Bitcoin, a stark contrast to Trump's position, which has heightened market uncertainty.
Gold prices have also been affected, falling below the critical level of 2600, while the S&P has recorded its largest drop on an interest rate cut day since 2001, spreading panic among investors.
Last night, I updated an analysis pointing out that Bitcoin failed to hold above 105000, and I continue to see a drop to the 102000-100000 range. Therefore, opening a short position in the 104500 area to test the support at 102000 is reasonable.
Currently, Bitcoin has dropped below 100000. The trend is not only driven by upward movements but also by downward ones. The market alternates between rises and falls, and Bitcoin's daily chart shows a 'bulldozer' pattern. The market is expected to welcome a 'V'-shaped reversal, achieving a rapid rebound. 98000 is the key support level to maintain the medium-term upward trend, so I suggest going long at the first retest of 98800-98500 on Thursday morning, with a stop loss at 98000 and a target of 101000-101500!
Ethereum is weaker than expected; last night we anticipated a retest of 3750, but it is now at 3540. During the day, I suggest going long in the 3520-3500 range, with a stop loss at 3480 and a target of 3650-3700!
Gold prices have also been affected, falling below the critical level of 2600, while the S&P has recorded its largest drop on an interest rate cut day since 2001, spreading panic among investors.
Last night, I updated an analysis pointing out that Bitcoin failed to hold above 105000, and I continue to see a drop to the 102000-100000 range. Therefore, opening a short position in the 104500 area to test the support at 102000 is reasonable.
Currently, Bitcoin has dropped below 100000. The trend is not only driven by upward movements but also by downward ones. The market alternates between rises and falls, and Bitcoin's daily chart shows a 'bulldozer' pattern. The market is expected to welcome a 'V'-shaped reversal, achieving a rapid rebound. 98000 is the key support level to maintain the medium-term upward trend, so I suggest going long at the first retest of 98800-98500 on Thursday morning, with a stop loss at 98000 and a target of 101000-101500!
Ethereum is weaker than expected; last night we anticipated a retest of 3750, but it is now at 3540. During the day, I suggest going long in the 3520-3500 range, with a stop loss at 3480 and a target of 3650-3700!
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Wednesday Evening Analysis
Bitcoin has been in a narrow range of fluctuations throughout the day, and the current view remains the same: the downward space has been compressed very small, making a significant drop almost impossible, while an increase still requires a bit of opportunity!
Consistent expectations can lead to changes in market behavior; converging views do not necessarily bring positive returns. From a technical perspective, the current market is in a downtrend on the 1-hour chart, and the downward trend has not yet ended. If it fails to stabilize after breaking 105000 in the evening, it can be determined that there may still be a downward process to follow, with support levels in the 102000-100000 range.
In this market, there is no such thing as a 'safe zone,' as turning points can occur at any time. There is no need to stick to rules because there are no one-size-fits-all, eternally unchanging strategy rules; adjusting with market changes is what is eternal.
At the same time, tonight will face significant changes, as the last Federal Reserve interest rate decision for 2024 will be announced at 3 AM. The market sentiment largely leans towards a possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut, or it can be said that this is a done deal. This is a positive development for the Bitcoin market, but at this time, we need to pay attention to whether this good news materializes now or later. Will it drop first and then rise? Or rise first and then drop? All are unknowns. Every time there is a meeting, market volatility is bound to intensify, so it is essential to manage risk when entering trades and to pay attention to maintaining the right rhythm.
On Wednesday evening, Bitcoin may rebound to 102000-101500, targeting 105000-106000,
Ethereum may rebound to 3750-3720, targeting 3900-4000!
Bitcoin has been in a narrow range of fluctuations throughout the day, and the current view remains the same: the downward space has been compressed very small, making a significant drop almost impossible, while an increase still requires a bit of opportunity!
Consistent expectations can lead to changes in market behavior; converging views do not necessarily bring positive returns. From a technical perspective, the current market is in a downtrend on the 1-hour chart, and the downward trend has not yet ended. If it fails to stabilize after breaking 105000 in the evening, it can be determined that there may still be a downward process to follow, with support levels in the 102000-100000 range.
In this market, there is no such thing as a 'safe zone,' as turning points can occur at any time. There is no need to stick to rules because there are no one-size-fits-all, eternally unchanging strategy rules; adjusting with market changes is what is eternal.
At the same time, tonight will face significant changes, as the last Federal Reserve interest rate decision for 2024 will be announced at 3 AM. The market sentiment largely leans towards a possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut, or it can be said that this is a done deal. This is a positive development for the Bitcoin market, but at this time, we need to pay attention to whether this good news materializes now or later. Will it drop first and then rise? Or rise first and then drop? All are unknowns. Every time there is a meeting, market volatility is bound to intensify, so it is essential to manage risk when entering trades and to pay attention to maintaining the right rhythm.
On Wednesday evening, Bitcoin may rebound to 102000-101500, targeting 105000-106000,
Ethereum may rebound to 3750-3720, targeting 3900-4000!
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Adjustments are difficult to change the final upward trend. Bitcoin has rebounded more than 1,600 points in the day after exceeding 103,700, while Ethereum has also rebounded 70 points after surpassing 3,820!
When the overall trend hasn't changed, and the pullback is sufficient, it's time for us to take action. The bull market is still long, so don't rush for results; the market always goes up and down. Execution is tough, but often the more difficult aspect is patience.
At 3 a.m. on the upcoming Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects almost a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
Regarding this early morning's interest rate decision, there are two key points to watch:
First is the pace of rate cuts next year as presented in the dot plot. Looking back at the September dot plot, there was an expectation of four rate cuts in 2025, but Bloomberg statistics currently show that the market generally expects three rate cuts next year. If the dot plot indicates still three rate cuts, it should be a positive signal for the market; conversely, if it shows fewer than three, it might raise market concerns.
The second is the attitude expressed by Powell at the press conference. Whether he sends a strong signal for the next pause in rate cuts or, as usual, engages in Tai Chi by presenting both sides of the argument will ultimately depend on data performance. If it's the former, the market will surely be impacted; if it's the latter, the market may choose to wait and see, looking forward to the December inflation and employment data to be released in January for further judgment.
When the overall trend hasn't changed, and the pullback is sufficient, it's time for us to take action. The bull market is still long, so don't rush for results; the market always goes up and down. Execution is tough, but often the more difficult aspect is patience.
At 3 a.m. on the upcoming Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects almost a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.
Regarding this early morning's interest rate decision, there are two key points to watch:
First is the pace of rate cuts next year as presented in the dot plot. Looking back at the September dot plot, there was an expectation of four rate cuts in 2025, but Bloomberg statistics currently show that the market generally expects three rate cuts next year. If the dot plot indicates still three rate cuts, it should be a positive signal for the market; conversely, if it shows fewer than three, it might raise market concerns.
The second is the attitude expressed by Powell at the press conference. Whether he sends a strong signal for the next pause in rate cuts or, as usual, engages in Tai Chi by presenting both sides of the argument will ultimately depend on data performance. If it's the former, the market will surely be impacted; if it's the latter, the market may choose to wait and see, looking forward to the December inflation and employment data to be released in January for further judgment.