LIVE阿成
@langpo
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When will Bitcoin start a bull run and when will the Fed cut interest rates?
US M0 bottomed out and rose in June, BTC entered the main bull market in July
$BTC
Conclusion first
1. After four months of decline, US M0 bottomed out and rebounded this month, and is expected to rise for 12 to 18 consecutive months.
2. BTC trend is highly correlated with US M0 and will continue to rise for 12 to 18 months
3. The interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and there will be no possibility of another interest rate hike before the cut.
In the past few months, there have been many discussions in the industry about the changes in US macro data and interest rates, and the trend has also been repeated many times. Here we analyze several important issues:
First, is US macro data important?
$BTC
Conclusion first
1. After four months of decline, US M0 bottomed out and rebounded this month, and is expected to rise for 12 to 18 consecutive months.
2. BTC trend is highly correlated with US M0 and will continue to rise for 12 to 18 months
3. The interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and there will be no possibility of another interest rate hike before the cut.
In the past few months, there have been many discussions in the industry about the changes in US macro data and interest rates, and the trend has also been repeated many times. Here we analyze several important issues:
First, is US macro data important?
See original
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
According to the calculation formula of MA moving average, we can deduce the future moving average trajectory. When the yellow dot reaches the arrow position, which is around June 20, the market will reach a consensus on the interest rate cut, and the next wave of market conditions will be very good. If you haven't bought the spot point given by the callback on April 13, you can continue to buy.
According to the calculation formula of MA moving average, we can deduce the future moving average trajectory. When the yellow dot reaches the arrow position, which is around June 20, the market will reach a consensus on the interest rate cut, and the next wave of market conditions will be very good. If you haven't bought the spot point given by the callback on April 13, you can continue to buy.
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#BTC走势分析 $BTC #芝商所拟推出比特币现货交易
#机构积极投资比特币ETF
Short-term pullback: Bitcoin daily top divergence, pay attention to the pullback around 63500, which can be a good buying point
Long-term rise: Looking at the discount price, it will take until mid-June at the latest to start the big market
#机构积极投资比特币ETF
Short-term pullback: Bitcoin daily top divergence, pay attention to the pullback around 63500, which can be a good buying point
Long-term rise: Looking at the discount price, it will take until mid-June at the latest to start the big market
See original
#美国4月CPI数据回落 #降息预测
The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September this year, and then cut interest rates twice in November and December respectively. The bull market will not stop if interest rate cuts continue. The market has been volatile recently, and most of the altcoins have returned to the prices of October last year.
But looking at the spot price I gave on April 13, it is now clear that it is the low point.
The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September this year, and then cut interest rates twice in November and December respectively. The bull market will not stop if interest rate cuts continue. The market has been volatile recently, and most of the altcoins have returned to the prices of October last year.
But looking at the spot price I gave on April 13, it is now clear that it is the low point.
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Pay attention to several recent positives in the Ai sector #AI爆发
#AI板块强势进击
1. Sam Altman's Worldcoin is paying attention to the partnership with PayPal and OpenAI
2. WLD officially announced that it will launch a public chain, which is scheduled to be released this summer and is expected to be launched in May or June. The concept of WLD covers artificial intelligence and Layer2 technology. Considering the current market value and circulation, once launched, it is expected to double and rise rapidly.
3. In May, the super AI sector ASI will be merged, and the merged tokens are fet, agix, and ocean. Their merged ASI will become the absolute leader of the AI A sector, followed by 10 will also issue coins in May.
4. The Apple Development Conference will be held on June 10th
5. Google's 2024io event will be held in May
6. Chat GPT-5 will be released in June
$LPT $ARKM $WLD
#AI板块强势进击
1. Sam Altman's Worldcoin is paying attention to the partnership with PayPal and OpenAI
2. WLD officially announced that it will launch a public chain, which is scheduled to be released this summer and is expected to be launched in May or June. The concept of WLD covers artificial intelligence and Layer2 technology. Considering the current market value and circulation, once launched, it is expected to double and rise rapidly.
3. In May, the super AI sector ASI will be merged, and the merged tokens are fet, agix, and ocean. Their merged ASI will become the absolute leader of the AI A sector, followed by 10 will also issue coins in May.
4. The Apple Development Conference will be held on June 10th
5. Google's 2024io event will be held in May
6. Chat GPT-5 will be released in June
$LPT $ARKM $WLD
LIVE阿成
--
The recent strong daily trend is the Ai and meme sectors
4 hours, wait for the closing at 12 o'clock, BOME WIF closes, compound interest is king, if it is red, you can chase more
$BOME $WIF $ARKM
#AI板块强势进击 #Meme币你看好哪一个？
4 hours, wait for the closing at 12 o'clock, BOME WIF closes, compound interest is king, if it is red, you can chase more
$BOME $WIF $ARKM
#AI板块强势进击 #Meme币你看好哪一个？
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#三个月内地解封比特币
Yesterday, there were a lot of news online saying that China will unblock Bitcoin in the mainland within three months. This is basically impossible, at least temporarily. Liberalizing the free trading of Bitcoin is equivalent to relaxing foreign exchange controls. Although Hong Kong allows Bitcoin to be traded on its own, Hong Kong and China are one country, two systems
Investment has an impossible triangle: security, profitability, and liquidity
In terms of monetary policy, developed countries such as the United States and Japan choose monetary policy independence and free capital flow
China is currently a developing country, and its monetary policy choice is monetary policy independence and fixed exchange rate system
And some poor and backward countries choose fixed exchange rate system and free capital flow
$BTC
#灰度GBTC资金流出趋势结束了吗？
The outflow of Grayscale GBTC actually has little impact on the market. Grayscale's GBTC outflow is because the handling fee is higher than that of other institutions. It just changed an institution, not that the funds were withdrawn
Yesterday, there were a lot of news online saying that China will unblock Bitcoin in the mainland within three months. This is basically impossible, at least temporarily. Liberalizing the free trading of Bitcoin is equivalent to relaxing foreign exchange controls. Although Hong Kong allows Bitcoin to be traded on its own, Hong Kong and China are one country, two systems
Investment has an impossible triangle: security, profitability, and liquidity
In terms of monetary policy, developed countries such as the United States and Japan choose monetary policy independence and free capital flow
China is currently a developing country, and its monetary policy choice is monetary policy independence and fixed exchange rate system
And some poor and backward countries choose fixed exchange rate system and free capital flow
$BTC
#灰度GBTC资金流出趋势结束了吗？
The outflow of Grayscale GBTC actually has little impact on the market. Grayscale's GBTC outflow is because the handling fee is higher than that of other institutions. It just changed an institution, not that the funds were withdrawn
See original
LIVE阿成
--
Bullish
Don't worry, sectors rotate. When other coins have risen, it will be your turn to fall. Although this is a joke, it was like this in the first half of the bull market. In the recent big correction, which sectors are strong? It must be the AI sector and the MEME sector
$ARKM $BOME $PEPE
#Meme币你看好哪一个？
#AI爆发
$ARKM $BOME $PEPE
#Meme币你看好哪一个？
#AI爆发
See original
Don't worry, sectors rotate. When other coins have risen, it will be your turn to fall. Although this is a joke, it was like this in the first half of the bull market. In the recent big correction, which sectors are strong? It must be the AI sector and the MEME sector
$ARKM $BOME $PEPE
#Meme币你看好哪一个？
#AI爆发
$ARKM $BOME $PEPE
#Meme币你看好哪一个？
#AI爆发
See original
#BTC走势分析
Bitcoin will still fluctuate in the short term. It is certain that 56,500 is the low point of this callback. Spot cannot be held. In the late bull market, the growth of Bitcoin cannot outperform the altcoin. You can switch positions to the AI sector, MEME sector, and public chain sector.
#美联储何时降息？
Everyone wants to know when the interest rate will be cut, because only when the interest rate is cut can the bull market start. The US dollar index will start to cut interest rates after 2 to 3 months of high fluctuations. This is also the last stubbornness of the US dollar index.
#比特币现货ETF持续淨流出
As for the outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF, everyone refers to the outflow from Grayscale, but other institutions are buying, mainly because Grayscale's handling fees are relatively expensive, so there is no need to worry.
The spot points given above were sorted out in advance on March 19. I believe this is unique in the currency circle.
Bitcoin will still fluctuate in the short term. It is certain that 56,500 is the low point of this callback. Spot cannot be held. In the late bull market, the growth of Bitcoin cannot outperform the altcoin. You can switch positions to the AI sector, MEME sector, and public chain sector.
#美联储何时降息？
Everyone wants to know when the interest rate will be cut, because only when the interest rate is cut can the bull market start. The US dollar index will start to cut interest rates after 2 to 3 months of high fluctuations. This is also the last stubbornness of the US dollar index.
#比特币现货ETF持续淨流出
As for the outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF, everyone refers to the outflow from Grayscale, but other institutions are buying, mainly because Grayscale's handling fees are relatively expensive, so there is no need to worry.
The spot points given above were sorted out in advance on March 19. I believe this is unique in the currency circle.
LIVE阿成
--
#比特币减半 When others are fearful, it is time for us to be greedy. Spots are bought on pullbacks$WLD $JTO $BOME
See original
The position of the red circle of Bitcoin's daily divergence is basically the highest and lowest points, or there are callbacks or rebounds. Only one green circle is not accurate.
Now ordi's daily low divergence
rats' daily low divergence, the daily double bottom is back to the daily support level
Most altcoins have formed a daily double bottom, and the callback is basically in place. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level for 2 to 3 months, which is also the last stubbornness of the US dollar. The US dollar index weakens and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates
#美联储何时降息？
$BTC $ORDI
Now ordi's daily low divergence
rats' daily low divergence, the daily double bottom is back to the daily support level
Most altcoins have formed a daily double bottom, and the callback is basically in place. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level for 2 to 3 months, which is also the last stubbornness of the US dollar. The US dollar index weakens and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates
#美联储何时降息？
$BTC $ORDI
See original
#比特币现货ETF持续淨流出 #美联储何时降息？
$BTC
As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, I personally think it will be in September. After the US dollar index fluctuates at a high level for 2 to 3 months, the US dollar index weakens and the Fed begins to plan to cut interest rates
Grayscale's Bitcoin has been flowing out, but institutions such as BlackRock have been increasing their positions. The reason for the outflow is that Grayscale's management fee is higher than the ETF handling fee of institutions such as BlackRock. As for why Grayscale does not reduce the handling fee, it is reasonable to reduce the handling fee to curb the outflow of funds. I guess it may be due to the laws of the United States
In the next two months, we must get used to the random statements of the Federal Reserve, and BTC can only go sideways. Before the Bitcoin ETF was passed, there was not much money entering the currency circle. Now that the ETF has been passed, many traditional funds can enter the currency circle legally and compliantly. This round of bull market will definitely be magnificent
For more spot points, please see my previous information
$BTC
As for when the Fed will cut interest rates, I personally think it will be in September. After the US dollar index fluctuates at a high level for 2 to 3 months, the US dollar index weakens and the Fed begins to plan to cut interest rates
Grayscale's Bitcoin has been flowing out, but institutions such as BlackRock have been increasing their positions. The reason for the outflow is that Grayscale's management fee is higher than the ETF handling fee of institutions such as BlackRock. As for why Grayscale does not reduce the handling fee, it is reasonable to reduce the handling fee to curb the outflow of funds. I guess it may be due to the laws of the United States
In the next two months, we must get used to the random statements of the Federal Reserve, and BTC can only go sideways. Before the Bitcoin ETF was passed, there was not much money entering the currency circle. Now that the ETF has been passed, many traditional funds can enter the currency circle legally and compliantly. This round of bull market will definitely be magnificent
For more spot points, please see my previous information
See original
#BTC下跌分析 $BTC #TON
Bitcoin has reached the lower track of the parallel channel, which is also the position of the daily MA120 moving average and the EMA 144 moving average. Wait a few months and there will be no difference between 57,000 and 60,000.
In addition, Bitcoin fell 5% today, while the altcoins basically did not fall much.
Those who are optimistic about the TON public chain can buy at the point.
Bitcoin has reached the lower track of the parallel channel, which is also the position of the daily MA120 moving average and the EMA 144 moving average. Wait a few months and there will be no difference between 57,000 and 60,000.
In addition, Bitcoin fell 5% today, while the altcoins basically did not fall much.
Those who are optimistic about the TON public chain can buy at the point.
See original
When everything is in a correction, do you know which coins are strong?
The yellow in the left picture is strong in the 4-hour period
The dots in the right picture are strong in the daily line
TRX is suddenly strong, I don’t know what Brother Sun is going to do
Recently, many people have turned short, I just have one sentence: interest rate cuts will not stop, the bull market will not stop, just clear the position before the interest rate cuts stop completely!
Don’t worry, the big bull market is still on the way
#Meme币你看好哪一个？ #PEPE潜力 #BONK #TRX孙哥又会不会妥协？ $PEPE $TRX
The yellow in the left picture is strong in the 4-hour period
The dots in the right picture are strong in the daily line
TRX is suddenly strong, I don’t know what Brother Sun is going to do
Recently, many people have turned short, I just have one sentence: interest rate cuts will not stop, the bull market will not stop, just clear the position before the interest rate cuts stop completely!
Don’t worry, the big bull market is still on the way
#Meme币你看好哪一个？ #PEPE潜力 #BONK #TRX孙哥又会不会妥协？ $PEPE $TRX
See original
The Fed raised interest rates on May 2, and Bitcoin fell.
No rate cuts, no rate hikes, rebounds.
Rate cuts will pull the market up, and even the coffin lid can't hold it back.
Don't look at how they argue about rate hikes, the probability is that they will not raise or lower interest rates.
It's unclear how the circle will fluctuate at this position, that is, it's hard to predict how the short-term trend will go. The falling flag is bullish, and jumping on the upper track of the parallel channel means the big market has started.
#BTC回调才会更好的上涨 #大盘走势 $BTC
No rate cuts, no rate hikes, rebounds.
Rate cuts will pull the market up, and even the coffin lid can't hold it back.
Don't look at how they argue about rate hikes, the probability is that they will not raise or lower interest rates.
It's unclear how the circle will fluctuate at this position, that is, it's hard to predict how the short-term trend will go. The falling flag is bullish, and jumping on the upper track of the parallel channel means the big market has started.
#BTC回调才会更好的上涨 #大盘走势 $BTC
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