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@CryptoChan
Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不拉群、不带单、不收费，分享是创作源动力 || Twitter：@0xCryptoChan
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Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
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[20241130 | BTC Market Monthly Report] The bull market is a great retreat
First, let’s review the BTC: RHODL indicator that we highlighted in the previous monthly report (October 18, 2024). This indicator is the ratio of “the number of BTC held on the chain for 1 week” to “the number of BTC held on the chain for 1-2 years”, which is used to reflect the volatility of short-term chips relative to the performance of long-term chips.
Historically, before and after the halving, the RHODL indicator will experience long-term fluctuations, and the coin price will also be sideways in the same period. The previous monthly report mentioned that the indicator and the coin price have been sideways for nearly 8 months, and it is possible to break through at any time. The latest situation of this indicator is shown in the figure below👇
Historically, before and after the halving, the RHODL indicator will experience long-term fluctuations, and the coin price will also be sideways in the same period. The previous monthly report mentioned that the indicator and the coin price have been sideways for nearly 8 months, and it is possible to break through at any time. The latest situation of this indicator is shown in the figure below👇
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Currently, Line4 has been broken, the next target is Line5😎（$147553）
The chart shows the newly developed Bitcoin Fibonacci-Terminal pricing model, which uses 5 lines to encompass the entire historical price of the coin from the lowest to the highest point, with each line based on the Fibonacci sequence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and designed according to the Bitcoin Transferred Price.
Current——
Line5: $147553
Line4: $93742
Line3: $60111
Line2: $39932
Line1: $26479
The chart shows the newly developed Bitcoin Fibonacci-Terminal pricing model, which uses 5 lines to encompass the entire historical price of the coin from the lowest to the highest point, with each line based on the Fibonacci sequence (3, 5, 8, 13, 21) and designed according to the Bitcoin Transferred Price.
Current——
Line5: $147553
Line4: $93742
Line3: $60111
Line2: $39932
Line1: $26479
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Blindly holding for 17 & 21 years, the bull market may have 4-7 months left😎
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom shows the percentage of BTC held by long-term holders out of the total BTC supply.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom shows the percentage of BTC held by long-term holders out of the total BTC supply.
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The divine skill advances, carefully selecting seven major BTC bull top pricing indicators 😼, current——
🔴Curve-Fitted MVRV Price : $122818
🟠Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price : $124860
🟡Fibonacci Top Price : $127657
🟢Tradable Realized Price : $145307
🔵Pow Price : $171253
🟣Thermocap Price : $186090
🟤Terminal Price : $187504
In addition, a bar chart has been added to visualize the number of price breakout indicators.
🔴Curve-Fitted MVRV Price : $122818
🟠Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price : $124860
🟡Fibonacci Top Price : $127657
🟢Tradable Realized Price : $145307
🔵Pow Price : $171253
🟣Thermocap Price : $186090
🟤Terminal Price : $187504
In addition, a bar chart has been added to visualize the number of price breakout indicators.
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Cutting a wave of Bitcoin short-term holders' MVRV, just exactly four years apart😏
Indicator link👉charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html
Indicator link👉charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_sth/mvrv_sth_light.html
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Looking forward to 25 years😏
The indicator at the top of the chart is the #BTC price, and the indicator at the bottom is the percentage of #BTC that has moved on-chain in the last 180 days (weighted by Realized Cap).
The indicator at the top of the chart is the #BTC price, and the indicator at the bottom is the percentage of #BTC that has moved on-chain in the last 180 days (weighted by Realized Cap).
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Nine Major BTC Bull Market Price Indicators Gathered 🫡, Currently——
🔘Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $117337
🔴Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $123420
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $126123
🟡Tradable Realized Price: $142629
🟢Delta Top Price: $173458
🔵Pow Price: $185494
🟤Thermocap Price: $185631
🟣Terminal Price: $185760
⚪️Top Cap Price: $394004
It is worth mentioning that historically——
Mid-2011 Bull Top, the price broke through 6 lines
First Top of 2013, the price broke through 5 lines
Second Top of 2013, the price broke through 7 lines
End of 2017 Bull Top, the price broke through 8 lines
First Half of 2021 Top, the price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the price has broken through 0 lines
🔘Curve-Fitted MVRV Price: $117337
🔴Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $123420
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $126123
🟡Tradable Realized Price: $142629
🟢Delta Top Price: $173458
🔵Pow Price: $185494
🟤Thermocap Price: $185631
🟣Terminal Price: $185760
⚪️Top Cap Price: $394004
It is worth mentioning that historically——
Mid-2011 Bull Top, the price broke through 6 lines
First Top of 2013, the price broke through 5 lines
Second Top of 2013, the price broke through 7 lines
End of 2017 Bull Top, the price broke through 8 lines
First Half of 2021 Top, the price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the price has broken through 0 lines
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One more thing to add, the upper and lower limits of the fitted upper and lower limits of BTC: MVRV can be obtained by multiplying BTC: Realized Price to get the upper and lower limits of Bitcoin K-line (as shown in the figure)
I have always ignored this point, and now I have combined it into nine BTC bull market escape indicators😌
I have always ignored this point, and now I have combined it into nine BTC bull market escape indicators😌
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CryptoChan
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【BTC Precise Peak and Bottom Series】
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
See original
【BTC Precise Peak and Bottom Series】
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
Using y = a + b * e^(c * x) to fit the historical peaks (red arrows in the figure) and historical troughs (green arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator, and dividing it into 6 intervals from 0-100 using an oscillation indicator.
= 100 indicates an extreme bull peak or a precise escape from the peak; = 0 indicates an extreme bear trough or a precise entry at the bottom.
Currently, the score of this indicator is 79, falling within the excitement range.
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The peak of the red column in 2015 is 753 days away from the peak of the BTC bull market at the end of 2017
The peak of the red column in 2019 is 703 days away from the peak of the BTC bull market in the first half of 2021
It has been 546 days since the peak of the red column in 2023
The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the blue line is the 350-day MA of the BTC price; the orange line is the previous high value of the blue line; the red column is: (orange line - blue line) / orange line, which is used to visualize the gap between the blue and orange lines
The peak of the red column in 2019 is 703 days away from the peak of the BTC bull market in the first half of 2021
It has been 546 days since the peak of the red column in 2023
The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the blue line is the 350-day MA of the BTC price; the orange line is the previous high value of the blue line; the red column is: (orange line - blue line) / orange line, which is used to visualize the gap between the blue and orange lines
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Use the method of "BTC: MVRV historical cumulative average + N times MVRV historical cumulative standard deviation" to draw multiple lines of "-1σ, -0.5σ......+1.5σ, +2σ" (as shown in the upper part of the figure)
Then use the oscillator indicator to divide it into 8 intervals from 0-100. <span is an extremely panic interval, you can copy the bear bottom; >100 is an extremely greedy interval, you can gradually escape the top (as shown in the lower part of the figure)
The current score of this indicator is 70.6, which is in the over-optimistic interval
Then use the oscillator indicator to divide it into 8 intervals from 0-100. <span is an extremely panic interval, you can copy the bear bottom; >100 is an extremely greedy interval, you can gradually escape the top (as shown in the lower part of the figure)
The current score of this indicator is 70.6, which is in the over-optimistic interval
See original
The skill has been mastered, the eight major BTC bull market peak escape indicators are gathered! (I worked myself to death...)
Current——
🔵Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $118634
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $120239
🔘Tradable Realized Price: $138034
🟡Delta Top Price: $164166
🟤Pow Price: $183281
🔴Terminal Price: $183344
🟣Thermocap Price: $185031
🟢Top Cap Price: $391566
It is worth mentioning that, historically——
In 2011, the bull peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
In 2013, the first peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
In 2013, the second peak, the currency price broke through 7 lines
In 2017, the bull peak, the currency price broke through 7 lines
In 2021, the first peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the currency price has broken through 0 lines
Current——
🔵Deviation-Corrected MVRV Price: $118634
🟠Fibonacci Top Price: $120239
🔘Tradable Realized Price: $138034
🟡Delta Top Price: $164166
🟤Pow Price: $183281
🔴Terminal Price: $183344
🟣Thermocap Price: $185031
🟢Top Cap Price: $391566
It is worth mentioning that, historically——
In 2011, the bull peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
In 2013, the first peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
In 2013, the second peak, the currency price broke through 7 lines
In 2017, the bull peak, the currency price broke through 7 lines
In 2021, the first peak, the currency price broke through 5 lines
Currently, the currency price has broken through 0 lines
See original
BTC Advances into the Final Frenzy Red Ribbon😼
The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the upper and lower limits of the red ribbon are based on Liquid Supply and Liveliness designed BTC: Realized Price, reflecting the cost ceiling of actively traded BTC chips on-chain. In the late stages of a bull market, the market trading price tends to approach this ceiling (the peak of the bull market may even break above the upper limit of the red ribbon).
The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the upper and lower limits of the red ribbon are based on Liquid Supply and Liveliness designed BTC: Realized Price, reflecting the cost ceiling of actively traded BTC chips on-chain. In the late stages of a bull market, the market trading price tends to approach this ceiling (the peak of the bull market may even break above the upper limit of the red ribbon).
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The dark blue area has finally reached the top, waiting for the last pit of the bull market!
The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the dark blue area is the proportion of floating profit BTC held by long-term coin holders; the light blue area is the proportion of floating loss BTC held by long-term coin holders
In history, the crazy bull market often corresponds to the large distribution of chips by long-term coin holders, forming a huge pit (red arrow in the figure)
Note: The chips of long-term coin holders refer to the BTC on the BTC chain that have not been moved for more than 155 days
The black line in the figure is the BTC price; the dark blue area is the proportion of floating profit BTC held by long-term coin holders; the light blue area is the proportion of floating loss BTC held by long-term coin holders
In history, the crazy bull market often corresponds to the large distribution of chips by long-term coin holders, forming a huge pit (red arrow in the figure)
Note: The chips of long-term coin holders refer to the BTC on the BTC chain that have not been moved for more than 155 days
See original
Bitcoin bull peak and bear bottom price prediction indicator based on Realized Price
Using N times the Realized Price to capture the top of the BTC bull market is a good method (as shown in Figure 1)
However, the biggest problem is that as the volume of BTC grows, the bull market multiples are decreasing, causing the N-fold Realized Price to gradually deviate from the bull market top (as shown in Figure 2).
The solution is to abandon N*Realized Price and use:
(BTC: Cumulative average of MVRV + BTC: Cumulative standard deviation of MVRV*N) * Realized Price
The effect is shown by the red line in Figure 3. At the bull peak in 2021, the red line has not deviated from the bull peak.
Then add a curve that fits the bottom of the bear market, and finally get a currency price model that can predict both the top of the bull market and the bottom of the bear market of Bitcoin (as shown in Figure 4)
However, the biggest problem is that as the volume of BTC grows, the bull market multiples are decreasing, causing the N-fold Realized Price to gradually deviate from the bull market top (as shown in Figure 2).
The solution is to abandon N*Realized Price and use:
(BTC: Cumulative average of MVRV + BTC: Cumulative standard deviation of MVRV*N) * Realized Price
The effect is shown by the red line in Figure 3. At the bull peak in 2021, the red line has not deviated from the bull peak.
Then add a curve that fits the bottom of the bear market, and finally get a currency price model that can predict both the top of the bull market and the bottom of the bear market of Bitcoin (as shown in Figure 4)
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As the volume of BTC is getting bigger and bigger, the bull peak multiple is getting weaker and weaker. Therefore, I have always used y=a+b*e^(c*x) to fit the historical bull peaks (red arrows in the figure) of the BTC: MVRV indicator. This is the method I often use to predict the approximate height of the next bull peak MVRV.
Slightly improved, adding an oscillating indicator of 0-100 in the percentage system. <span is the bear market panic zone, and you can gradually buy the bottom; =100 is the peak of the bull peak, or you can accurately escape the top.
The current score of this indicator is 68.5, which is in the "excited" zone
Slightly improved, adding an oscillating indicator of 0-100 in the percentage system. <span is the bear market panic zone, and you can gradually buy the bottom; =100 is the peak of the bull peak, or you can accurately escape the top.
The current score of this indicator is 68.5, which is in the "excited" zone
See original
BTC New Holy Grail! 🏆
The latest BTC price model developed based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Bitcoin Balanced Price!
Use 7 lines to divide the entire historical coin price from the bottom to the top. Each line from bottom to top is designed based on the Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21). There is no redundant overfitting constant factor in the formula! (I can't help myself from such a wonderful formula~)
The oscillator indicator at the bottom of the figure divides the entire historical coin price from 0-100 into 8 intervals according to the 7 lines. <span is the "extreme panic" interval, which can copy the big bear bottom; >100 is the "extreme greed" interval, which can escape the big bull top!
The current score of this indicator is 62.4, which is in the "optimistic" interval
The latest BTC price model developed based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Bitcoin Balanced Price!
Use 7 lines to divide the entire historical coin price from the bottom to the top. Each line from bottom to top is designed based on the Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21). There is no redundant overfitting constant factor in the formula! (I can't help myself from such a wonderful formula~)
The oscillator indicator at the bottom of the figure divides the entire historical coin price from 0-100 into 8 intervals according to the 7 lines. <span is the "extreme panic" interval, which can copy the big bear bottom; >100 is the "extreme greed" interval, which can escape the big bull top!
The current score of this indicator is 62.4, which is in the "optimistic" interval
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Now that the bulls are here, let's work harder. I feel a little slack😂
Come on! Start developing more new indicators🧑💻
Come on! Start developing more new indicators🧑💻
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【BTC Bull Top Indicator Development Series】
When calculating the average price (Realized Price) of all BTC on the chain, the usual practice is to use "Total Cost Market Value (Realized Cap)" divided by "Circulating Supply".
Later, I regarded the BTC on the chain that had not been moved for >7 years as long-term dormancy or loss and removed it from the calculation to eliminate the increasingly severe drag of ancient chips, that is, the denominator became "Circulating Supply - >7y Supply", which is also my common template.
In addition to the above methods, are there any new design ideas for Realized Price?
If the total cost market value is evenly divided by all BTC with good liquidity (Liquid Supply) on the chain, then the purchase cost borne by each BTC will become the limit of the price increase (as shown in the figure).
That is, when the price of the currency rises to the point where the total cost + profit of only BTC with good liquidity can be equal to the total cost market value of all BTC on the chain at this moment, that is, the profit of BTC with good liquidity is equal to the cost of BTC with non-circulating liquidity, the market will reach the limit of increase.
There may be a deeper logic in this, and it can be used as a reference indicator for the bull market at the moment 😺 (as shown in the figure).
When calculating the average price (Realized Price) of all BTC on the chain, the usual practice is to use "Total Cost Market Value (Realized Cap)" divided by "Circulating Supply".
Later, I regarded the BTC on the chain that had not been moved for >7 years as long-term dormancy or loss and removed it from the calculation to eliminate the increasingly severe drag of ancient chips, that is, the denominator became "Circulating Supply - >7y Supply", which is also my common template.
In addition to the above methods, are there any new design ideas for Realized Price?
If the total cost market value is evenly divided by all BTC with good liquidity (Liquid Supply) on the chain, then the purchase cost borne by each BTC will become the limit of the price increase (as shown in the figure).
That is, when the price of the currency rises to the point where the total cost + profit of only BTC with good liquidity can be equal to the total cost market value of all BTC on the chain at this moment, that is, the profit of BTC with good liquidity is equal to the cost of BTC with non-circulating liquidity, the market will reach the limit of increase.
There may be a deeper logic in this, and it can be used as a reference indicator for the bull market at the moment 😺 (as shown in the figure).