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一名计算机专业的数据分析出身的进阶交易员|技术教学|消息面分析|合约技术分析|即时消息分享
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A newbie's experience of margin call worth 50,000u. Is it possible to turn losses into profits?
I haven't updated for many days recently. I had a lot of offline chats with an old rookie in the circle. I haven't slept much recently and I feel sleepy all over.
background:
This newbie, let's call him Ahong for the time being, entered the cryptocurrency circle at the end of last year. He had more than 10,000 U when he entered the circle. He lost 1,400 U on the first day (why 1,400 U? Because the exchange limits the maximum loss for novices). After that, he used a leverage of 20 times to fully invest, and luckily he reached 30,000 U by trading all the way before Grayscale's selling in January.
The position screenshot cannot be found
After that, I chose to open long at 2500 and encountered Grayscale selling and fell all the way to around 2200, and my position was liquidated. Not long after, in February, I recharged 10,000u again to enter the cryptocurrency circle. This time, when the price doubled to 20,000u, I shorted at 2500 points and encountered the crazy Spring Festival bull market, and my position was liquidated again. A total of 50,000U was liquidated, and I have not recovered until today.
background:
This newbie, let's call him Ahong for the time being, entered the cryptocurrency circle at the end of last year. He had more than 10,000 U when he entered the circle. He lost 1,400 U on the first day (why 1,400 U? Because the exchange limits the maximum loss for novices). After that, he used a leverage of 20 times to fully invest, and luckily he reached 30,000 U by trading all the way before Grayscale's selling in January.
The position screenshot cannot be found
After that, I chose to open long at 2500 and encountered Grayscale selling and fell all the way to around 2200, and my position was liquidated. Not long after, in February, I recharged 10,000u again to enter the cryptocurrency circle. This time, when the price doubled to 20,000u, I shorted at 2500 points and encountered the crazy Spring Festival bull market, and my position was liquidated again. A total of 50,000U was liquidated, and I have not recovered until today.
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I have a strategy that can double your money with just one order. Do you want to try it? Do you really know the importance of position control? (Part 1)
📡If there is a strategy that gives you a 50% chance of doubling your single profit, and a 50% chance of halving your assets and losing 50% (Strategy 1, Position Control 1), would you choose such a trading strategy? From the perspective of probability theory understood by ordinary people, this is a high-quality strategy. Because the money earned from his profit is far greater than the money lost, and with a 50% probability, his weight is a positive number.
📢Then my subsequent experiments will be carried out under the following conditions: the initial capital is 10,000, and when the funds are less than 100, we will consider it bankrupt.
📢Then my subsequent experiments will be carried out under the following conditions: the initial capital is 10,000, and when the funds are less than 100, we will consider it bankrupt.
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Application of Fibonacci in the Cryptocurrency Industry
#斐波那契 In the cryptocurrency industry, Fibonacci technical analysis tools are widely used to determine the support and resistance levels of market prices, helping investors make decisions to buy, sell or hold. Here are a few examples of practical applications:
1. Fibonacci retracement: determining support levels after adjustments
In the cryptocurrency market, where prices fluctuate wildly, Fibonacci retracements can help investors identify the extent of a price correction after a strong rally to determine potential support levels.
Actual case:
Assume that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rises from $20,000 to $50,000 and starts to pull back near the high of $50,000. Traders draw Fibonacci retracements from the low of $20,000 to the high of $50,000, which will show retracement levels such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. If the price stops falling and rebounds near $42,000 (61.8% retracement level), it indicates that the market has formed strong support at this point and investors can consider buying at this price.
1. Fibonacci retracement: determining support levels after adjustments
In the cryptocurrency market, where prices fluctuate wildly, Fibonacci retracements can help investors identify the extent of a price correction after a strong rally to determine potential support levels.
Actual case:
Assume that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rises from $20,000 to $50,000 and starts to pull back near the high of $50,000. Traders draw Fibonacci retracements from the low of $20,000 to the high of $50,000, which will show retracement levels such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. If the price stops falling and rebounds near $42,000 (61.8% retracement level), it indicates that the market has formed strong support at this point and investors can consider buying at this price.
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The Application of Fibonacci in Financial Markets
#斐波那契 In the financial market, the Fibonacci sequence and its derived Fibonacci ratios (such as 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, etc.) are widely used in technical analysis to predict potential support and resistance levels in market price movements. Here are detailed application scenarios and methods:
1. Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is one of the most common technical analysis tools in the financial market. Traders use it to identify potential support or resistance levels where market prices may find support or face resistance during upward or downward trends.
1. Fibonacci Retracement
Fibonacci retracement is one of the most common technical analysis tools in the financial market. Traders use it to identify potential support or resistance levels where market prices may find support or face resistance during upward or downward trends.
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Position Control - Opening Position Control Under Different Market Conditions
#仓位管理 In cryptocurrency trading, position control is the core of risk management. Reasonable position management can effectively reduce risk in a volatile market and improve the efficiency of capital utilization. This article will explore how to control opening positions under different market conditions, along with the use of leverage and its significance in drawdown control, combining the summaries of left-side and right-side trading.
1. Summary of Left-Side and Right-Side Trading
左侧交易和右侧交易分别代表了两种不同的进场策略。左侧交易强调在市场趋势未完全确认前提前进场，适合风险承受能力强且有市场预测能力的投资者。这类交易策略虽具高回报潜力，但风险也相对较高。相对的，右侧交易则在市场趋势确认后再进场，更为稳健低风险，适合追求确定性并愿意牺牲部分利润的保守投资者。具体总结内容可参考此前的相关文章。
1. Summary of Left-Side and Right-Side Trading
左侧交易和右侧交易分别代表了两种不同的进场策略。左侧交易强调在市场趋势未完全确认前提前进场，适合风险承受能力强且有市场预测能力的投资者。这类交易策略虽具高回报潜力，但风险也相对较高。相对的，右侧交易则在市场趋势确认后再进场，更为稳健低风险，适合追求确定性并愿意牺牲部分利润的保守投资者。具体总结内容可参考此前的相关文章。
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The insights of a post-00s person worth over 100 million on news trading:
#消息面 When a piece of news appears, whether it will affect the market/the extent of the impact on the market depends on the following factors:
Will this news have a significant impact on the underlying fundamentals or liquidity?
How quickly the news spreads on social media
Are there enough people interested in buying this news? (Also affected by the second point)
Are there insiders who bought in advance and then sold?
When news appears, it is determined whether it is worth buying. One or more of the following characteristics must be met:
Timeliness: No more than 60 seconds from the release time of the first-hand news source.
Will this news have a significant impact on the underlying fundamentals or liquidity?
How quickly the news spreads on social media
Are there enough people interested in buying this news? (Also affected by the second point)
Are there insiders who bought in advance and then sold?
When news appears, it is determined whether it is worth buying. One or more of the following characteristics must be met:
Timeliness: No more than 60 seconds from the release time of the first-hand news source.
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Harris vs. Trump: Whose policies are better for the development of Crypto?
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, shared a “policy scorecard” based on the U.S. presidential candidates’ stances on the crypto asset industry.
This graphic shows that Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election poses very limited "risk" to the Crypto industry and is more favorable than the current Biden administration.
However, former US President and current candidate Trump has the most favorable attitude towards Crypto assets.
Galaxy Research analysts are "optimistic" that actions so far suggest Harris's tenure could be friendlier than that of U.S. President Joe Biden.
This graphic shows that Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election poses very limited "risk" to the Crypto industry and is more favorable than the current Biden administration.
However, former US President and current candidate Trump has the most favorable attitude towards Crypto assets.
Galaxy Research analysts are "optimistic" that actions so far suggest Harris's tenure could be friendlier than that of U.S. President Joe Biden.
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Justin Sun: Traffic, controversy, and liberalism
Two months ago, Justin Sun celebrated his 34th birthday.
Before he was 30, his halo came from a long list of dazzling titles: Peking University, cover figure of (Asia Weekly), graduate of Ivy League school (University of Pennsylvania), global outstanding youth of Davos Forum, the first batch of the only post-90s student of Jack Ma Lakeside University...
He started a business while studying abroad at the age of 22. At the age of 24, he returned to China as the chief representative of Ripple Labs in Greater China and founded Ripple and served as CEO. At the age of 25, he was named "China's Internet Newcomer of the Year" by CNTV. At the age of 27, he founded the blockchain platform TRON and was selected into the Forbes 30 Under 30 Asia list in the same year. At the age of 29, he took a lunch with Buffett...
Before he was 30, his halo came from a long list of dazzling titles: Peking University, cover figure of (Asia Weekly), graduate of Ivy League school (University of Pennsylvania), global outstanding youth of Davos Forum, the first batch of the only post-90s student of Jack Ma Lakeside University...
He started a business while studying abroad at the age of 22. At the age of 24, he returned to China as the chief representative of Ripple Labs in Greater China and founded Ripple and served as CEO. At the age of 25, he was named "China's Internet Newcomer of the Year" by CNTV. At the age of 27, he founded the blockchain platform TRON and was selected into the Forbes 30 Under 30 Asia list in the same year. At the age of 29, he took a lunch with Buffett...
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The crypto market is the most suitable market for smart people in the world.
Because there are countless brainless retail investors and easy-to-use leverage, which means that the price reaction is dozens of times faster than the traditional market.
There are no rules here, and there is no old money monopolizing key areas. Every smart person can use their own brains to quickly cash out.
What web3 and value investment? It's a joke in my opinion.
The biggest role of the crypto market is the transfer of wealth,
from 95% of the bottom retail investors to 5% of the elites,
from uninformed traders to informed traders,
of course, coming to this market is to plunder the wealth of others.
If you want to succeed, then you'd better keep yourself away from the group of the masses (normie), find a way to climb up your ecological niche and become a member of the carnivore class.
So for ordinary people, if you don't have the luck to win the lottery, then learning will be the most stable investment. #学习改变成长行动收获
Because there are countless brainless retail investors and easy-to-use leverage, which means that the price reaction is dozens of times faster than the traditional market.
There are no rules here, and there is no old money monopolizing key areas. Every smart person can use their own brains to quickly cash out.
What web3 and value investment? It's a joke in my opinion.
The biggest role of the crypto market is the transfer of wealth,
from 95% of the bottom retail investors to 5% of the elites,
from uninformed traders to informed traders,
of course, coming to this market is to plunder the wealth of others.
If you want to succeed, then you'd better keep yourself away from the group of the masses (normie), find a way to climb up your ecological niche and become a member of the carnivore class.
So for ordinary people, if you don't have the luck to win the lottery, then learning will be the most stable investment. #学习改变成长行动收获
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[US CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in September] Golden Finance reported that the US CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in September, which was expected to rise by 2.3% and the previous value was 2.5%; the US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, which was expected to rise by 0.1% and the previous value was 0.2%. How you interpret this data is outrageous, just keep it sideways. #CPI&PPI来袭，美国通胀升还降？
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Focus on cpi#CPI&PPI来袭，美国通胀升还降？
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The cryptocurrency version of Werewolf? Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?
Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? This is one of the most mysterious and hotly discussed topics in the cryptocurrency circle. Recently, a documentary about him has been filmed. There are speculations everywhere on the Internet. It is like a werewolf in the cryptocurrency circle. Let alone who he is and what he did, the fact that he sold the bitcoins in his wallet is likely to make the bitcoins go to zero. Some people estimate that Satoshi Nakamoto may hold up to 1 million bitcoins.
Recently, this topic has not only been discussed on social media, but also made into a documentary, which has attracted great attention from the cryptocurrency community. Satoshi Nakamoto is the founder of Bitcoin. He published the Bitcoin white paper in 2008, but then disappeared from the public eye. His true identity is still a mystery.
Recently, this topic has not only been discussed on social media, but also made into a documentary, which has attracted great attention from the cryptocurrency community. Satoshi Nakamoto is the founder of Bitcoin. He published the Bitcoin white paper in 2008, but then disappeared from the public eye. His true identity is still a mystery.
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Today, the A-share market also entered a plunge mode, but I just want to ask why the Yongzhuan blogger is everywhere, why is the rhetoric exactly the same, I just want to know where this thing came from, what a talent 😂#永赚大师
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According to recent news and market analysis, the impact of the 2024 US presidential election on the cryptocurrency industry is gradually emerging, especially in the campaign between the two candidates Trump and Harris.
Trump's approval rating rose to 53.5%, while Vice President Harris's approval rating fell to 45.7%. The impact on the cryptocurrency market is complex and uncertain. Trump took a pro-cryptocurrency stance in the 2024 presidential campaign, including stating that the United States will become the "cryptocurrency capital" and launching crypto projects based on Aave and Ethereum. Such policies, if successful, will have a positive impact on the crypto market, may attract more institutional investors, and stimulate the growth of the crypto market.
On the other hand, Harris did not show clear support for cryptocurrencies, and his campaign strategy reflected a tendency to be more regulated and cautious about cryptocurrencies. This stance may put the crypto industry in greater uncertainty due to the harsh measures taken by the Biden administration's SEC against major cryptocurrency trading platforms.
In terms of the policy direction of the two candidates, Trump is more inclined to economic policies of reducing regulation and tax cuts, which may benefit the crypto market; while Harris may take more stringent regulatory measures, causing the market to wait and see cautiously. This uncertainty has caused the market's trading sentiment to fluctuate greatly. Currently, the crypto market shows a trend of range fluctuations before waiting for clearer political signals. #大选概念
Trump's approval rating rose to 53.5%, while Vice President Harris's approval rating fell to 45.7%. The impact on the cryptocurrency market is complex and uncertain. Trump took a pro-cryptocurrency stance in the 2024 presidential campaign, including stating that the United States will become the "cryptocurrency capital" and launching crypto projects based on Aave and Ethereum. Such policies, if successful, will have a positive impact on the crypto market, may attract more institutional investors, and stimulate the growth of the crypto market.
On the other hand, Harris did not show clear support for cryptocurrencies, and his campaign strategy reflected a tendency to be more regulated and cautious about cryptocurrencies. This stance may put the crypto industry in greater uncertainty due to the harsh measures taken by the Biden administration's SEC against major cryptocurrency trading platforms.
In terms of the policy direction of the two candidates, Trump is more inclined to economic policies of reducing regulation and tax cuts, which may benefit the crypto market; while Harris may take more stringent regulatory measures, causing the market to wait and see cautiously. This uncertainty has caused the market's trading sentiment to fluctuate greatly. Currently, the crypto market shows a trend of range fluctuations before waiting for clearer political signals. #大选概念
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Is this A-share?
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The A-share market is about to open. For the first time, I am worried that the big cake will be sucked by the A-share market🤡$BTC
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The decisive battle in October should be tonight. The A-share market will most likely open strong tomorrow. If the U.S. stock market cannot lock up funds to prevent capital flight tonight, the U.S. stock market will be in a very difficult situation for a long time to come, and the cryptocurrency market, as a fellow sufferer, will also be doomed. #美股
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The Fed’s losses and their impact on subsequent rate cuts and the cryptocurrency industry and global financial markets
#降息风波 #美国经济软着陆？ #美联储亏损
The Fed’s Losses
The Federal Reserve recently reported that its losses have exceeded $200 billion. This loss is mainly due to the interest costs paid by the Federal Reserve to financial institutions during the interest rate hike cycle exceeding the interest income from the bonds it holds. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials emphasized that this loss will not affect the implementation of its monetary policy.
Possibility of subsequent rate cuts
The Fed may continue to cut interest rates due to changes in economic conditions. The main purpose of cutting interest rates is to stimulate economic activity and job growth by reducing borrowing costs. The Fed's interest rate cut policy usually leads to a decrease in market interest rates, thereby encouraging businesses and consumers to increase spending and investment3.
The Fed’s Losses
The Federal Reserve recently reported that its losses have exceeded $200 billion. This loss is mainly due to the interest costs paid by the Federal Reserve to financial institutions during the interest rate hike cycle exceeding the interest income from the bonds it holds. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials emphasized that this loss will not affect the implementation of its monetary policy.
Possibility of subsequent rate cuts
The Fed may continue to cut interest rates due to changes in economic conditions. The main purpose of cutting interest rates is to stimulate economic activity and job growth by reducing borrowing costs. The Fed's interest rate cut policy usually leads to a decrease in market interest rates, thereby encouraging businesses and consumers to increase spending and investment3.
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Who is rising? Just now, Hong Kong stocks fell across the board, and A50 also fell.
In the early morning of October 3, the Hong Kong stock market underwent adjustments.
After yesterday's surge, Hong Kong stocks experienced a sudden change this morning. Hang Seng Technology fell by more than 7% at one point, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4% at one point, a sharp drop of nearly 1,000 points. Brokerage stocks, real estate stocks, and A50 index futures also plunged. What happened?
The FTSE China A50 Index futures just fell below the 14800.00 mark and are currently trading at 14694, down nearly 1%.
Hong Kong stocks fell across the board, and real estate stocks plummeted across the board!
Hong Kong stocks, which soared yesterday, experienced a big dive in early trading today. As of press time, the Hang Seng Index fell more than 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell nearly 7%.
After yesterday's surge, Hong Kong stocks experienced a sudden change this morning. Hang Seng Technology fell by more than 7% at one point, and the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 4% at one point, a sharp drop of nearly 1,000 points. Brokerage stocks, real estate stocks, and A50 index futures also plunged. What happened?
The FTSE China A50 Index futures just fell below the 14800.00 mark and are currently trading at 14694, down nearly 1%.
Hong Kong stocks fell across the board, and real estate stocks plummeted across the board!
Hong Kong stocks, which soared yesterday, experienced a big dive in early trading today. As of press time, the Hang Seng Index fell more than 4% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell nearly 7%.