Bitcoin rebounded to $62,000 this morning, but whether it has bottomed out remains to be confirmed. This article summarizes the analysis opinions of institutions and experts to help readers judge the future development of cryptocurrency.
Contents of this article
10X Research: Bitcoin is severely oversold
CryptoQuant: The market may see a V-shaped rebound
Matrixport: Bitcoin Greed and Fear Index May Have Reached Its Lowest Level
Bitfinex: Short-term market sentiment remains bearish
The cryptocurrency market has been weak recently, and Bitcoin even fell below the $60,000 mark yesterday (25), reaching $58,402. Although Bitcoin has rebounded at the time of writing, reaching a high of $62,422 at 3 a.m. today (26), investors are still cautious about the future of BTC.
The following section quickly summarizes the analysis opinions of various institutions and experts to see how they judge.
10X Research: Bitcoin is severely oversold
In response to Bitcoin’s current downturn, cryptocurrency research organization 10X Research pointed out in a research report yesterday (25) that there are indeed many factors that have led to the market’s decline, including:
The cryptocurrency exchange Mt.Gox announced that it would begin repaying creditors in early July, so the market may face selling pressure of tens of thousands of bitcoins;
The German government may sell its confiscated Bitcoins, with a total value of nearly $3 billion;
Selling by Bitcoin miners;
Bitcoin ETF outflows;
Bitcoin OG’s profit taking;
…
However, 10X Research said that Bitcoin is currently in a severely oversold stage, and the market's greed and fear index has almost dropped to the lowest level. Therefore, Bitcoin may be at a relative price low at present, and perhaps after further declines, Bitcoin will rebound:
Many structural factors have led to the continued decline of Bitcoin, but Bitcoin may rebound after further decline. After some altcoins have experienced fluctuations, many KOLs are suggesting that they should be bought on dips.
CryptoQuant: The market may see a V-shaped rebound
CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet said that based on the UTXO profitability percentage of Bitcoin during the consolidation phase last year, although Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, the UTXO profitability percentage has clearly fallen from its low point. Therefore, Bitcoin whales may respond to the panic in the market, which also indicates that the market may see a V-shaped rebound.
Matrixport: Bitcoin Greed and Fear Index May Have Reached Its Lowest Level
Matrixport also pointed out yesterday that Bitcoin’s Greed and Fear Index may have reached its lowest level, which also indicates that the market may bottom out and rebound:
As long as Bitcoin remains in a bull market, this indicator tends to bounce from its current levels. Although the moving average of this indicator is still declining, we also want to see it turn upward before buying.
Bitfinex: Short-term market sentiment remains bearish
Although many analysts believe that the market may have bottomed out, the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex said in its latest weekly report that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continued to experience net outflows of more than $540 million last week, indicating that weak ETF investors are responding to negative market news.
In addition, open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME and other trading platforms has also fallen sharply, suggesting that arbitrage trading associated with ETF flows has also dropped significantly.
In summary, market sentiment still seems to be mainly bearish:
The reduction in Bitcoin holdings coincides with negative funding rates on multiple exchanges over the past week and is consistent with net outflows from ETFs, suggesting a significant reduction in carry trades associated with ETF flows.
Market sentiment remains predominantly bearish as Bitcoin remains weak on short-term time frames.
