#币安上线ZK
In recent times, the cryptocurrency market has continued to fall, raising questions among many investors: Who is selling?
1️⃣Market decline and selling phenomenon: Despite the buying interest shown by Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors, the market has not improved, but has continued to fall. This suggests that there are more complex factors at work in the market.
2️⃣Selling by old holders: Old holders (OGs) are the main sellers. The number of Bitcoins they hold far exceeds the sum of all ETFs, even up to 10 times. During bull markets, OGs usually sell a portion of Bitcoin to realize gains.
3️⃣The impact of paper Bitcoin: Traditionally, buying Bitcoin means buying actual Bitcoin. But now, investors can choose to buy paper Bitcoin, which is a financial derivative that is not backed by actual Bitcoin. This has led to the emergence of so-called synthetic Bitcoins in the market, provided by traders who have no actual Bitcoin to sell and who only support their transactions with US dollars.
4️⃣Market focus: The 2022 bear market is largely driven by a massive increase in paper Bitcoin, while spot Bitcoin holders have not sold off on a large scale. In the current bull market, the rise of paper Bitcoin is in stark contrast to the stagnation of spot prices.
5️⃣ The importance of comprehensive analysis: Investors cannot simply focus on ETF purchases. On-chain data, derivatives market data, and price technical indicators are all important tools for assessing market supply and demand. Combining this information for analysis is an art rather than a pure quantitative science.
After Alan Knitowski proposed that the concept of a supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins is declining in importance because of the limited ability to short Bitcoin with US dollar collateral. This explains why the SEC tends to support futures ETFs rather than spot ETFs, which is an ongoing regulatory war.
