In the recent period, the cryptocurrency market has continued to fall, raising many investors' questions: Who is selling?
1️⃣ Market decline and selling phenomenon: Although Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors have shown buying interest, the market has not improved, but has continued to fall. This shows that there are more complex factors at work in the market.
2️⃣ Selling by old holders: Old holders (OGs) are the main sellers. The amount of Bitcoin they hold far exceeds the sum of all ETFs, even up to 10 times. During the bull market, OGs usually sell a portion of Bitcoin to realize gains.
3️⃣ The impact of paper Bitcoin: Traditionally, buying Bitcoin means buying actual Bitcoin. But now, investors can choose to buy paper Bitcoin, which is a financial derivative that is not backed by actual Bitcoin. This has led to the emergence of so-called synthetic Bitcoin in the market, provided by traders who have no actual Bitcoin to sell and who only support their transactions with US dollars.
4️⃣ Market focus: The 2022 bear market is largely driven by a large increase in paper Bitcoin, while holders of spot Bitcoin have not sold on a large scale. In the current bull market, the rise of paper Bitcoin contrasts sharply with the stagnation of spot prices.
5️⃣ The importance of comprehensive analysis: Investors cannot simply focus on the purchase volume of ETFs. On-chain data, derivative market data, and price technical indicators are all important tools for assessing market supply and demand. Combining this information for analysis is an art, not a pure quantitative science.
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After Alan Knitowski proposed that the concept of a supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins is declining in importance because the ability to short Bitcoin with US dollar collateral is limited. This explains why the SEC tends to support futures ETFs rather than spot ETFs, which is an ongoing regulatory war. #美联储何时降息？ #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国PCE数据将公布 #币安合约锦标赛
