#BTC #ETH #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划
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Weekly Review
This week, from June 17 to June 24, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $67,298 and the lowest was close to $63,379, with a fluctuation range of about 5.82%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.37 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 90%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
On June 20, the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the second consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations. The Swiss National Bank said it was ready to intervene in the money market if necessary. The market expects the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in September to return monetary policy to a neutral level.
On June 20, the Bank of England kept its base interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive time, in line with market expectations.
Most members of the Bank of England are divided on the significance of recent data, suggesting that more policymakers may be close to supporting a rate cut, thus keeping alive hopes of monetary easing before the end of the summer. Markets increased bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 47 basis points this year, with the first rate cut expected in August.
JPMorgan said: "We track 37 central banks, 20 of which are already cutting interest rates, and the Fed is likely to join them at some point this year."
The combined market value of the "Big Three" of the U.S. stock market, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, has exceeded $10 trillion, the first time in history. The market value of the three is above $3.2 trillion. Since the beginning of this year, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft have increased by 175%, 12%, and 19%, respectively.
Fed's Barkin said the Fed needs to further clarify the inflation path before it can cut interest rates, and after the first rate cut, data will determine further measures;
Fed's Goolsbee: If we see more good inflation reports, we can cut interest rates. The inflation rate does not need to reach 2% before cutting interest rates.
Bank of America data showed that weekly inflows into technology funds reached $8.7 billion, a record high;
Growth funds saw net inflows of $11.9 billion last week, a record high. Last week, investors pulled $300 million out of the gold market, $400 million out of the cryptocurrency market, and $15.8 billion out of cash.
Investors poured $25.6 billion into stocks last week, the biggest inflow since March.
Encrypted ecological news
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, reports that the average price of the top 115 coins has fallen by 50% from their 2024 highs, and unless cryptocurrency liquidity improves significantly, these losses will continue to intensify.
Brokerage firm Bernstein's research report stated that BTC and cryptocurrency-related stocks are undervalued and suitable for institutional adoption. It believes that the BTC ETF will be approved by major securities companies and large private banking platforms in the third and fourth decades.
Bernstein said that the $779 billion spot BTC ETF is about to be approved by major financial institutions, and the inflow of BTC ETF is expected to accelerate again in the third/fourth quarter. The current turbulent market is providing new entry points, after which institutional demand will usher in the next round of recovery.
QCPCapital believes that despite the uncertainty surrounding the acceptance of ETH spot ETFs, if 10-20% of BTC ETF flow can be obtained, it may push ETH above $4,000.
According to Tagus Capital data, stablecoin issuers currently hold more than $120 billion in U.S. Treasuries, making them the 18th largest holder of U.S. Treasuries in the world, surpassing major primary account surplus countries such as Germany and South Korea.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said that Tether has now become one of the world's three largest holders of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds.
ETF analyst James Seyffart said that Bitwise released a funny ETH advertisement, which may hint at the launch of a related ETF. The advertisement said: Unlike large financial institutions, ETH does not go off work at 4 pm.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Seller Stress Assessment
Whale Net Position
Exchange large transfer net position data
Short-term participant costs
(Figure below: Seller Pressure Assessment)
This chart is used to determine sudden and intensified changes in the market when sellers in extreme situations occur.
In a bull market, a stage bottom is usually formed at the moment when the selling power intensifies.
Of course, if you want to catch the stage bottom more accurately, you may need to use other data to judge the easing of market sentiment.
In general, the power in a bull market is the strongest and continuous support, so this data is more suitable for relatively risky bottom-fishing on the left side of a bull market.
In a bull market, on the day when seller sentiment changes most dramatically, the market generally reaches a relative bottom pit nearby.
It hasn’t reached that point yet.
(The following figure shows the net position of whales)
The net positions of whales are real and the pressure on the market continues to spread.
(The following figure shows the net position data of large transfers on exchanges)
Similarly, large transfers show that more large orders exceeding 10 million US dollars are flowing in, which means that there are more selling intentions.
(Figure below shows short-term participant costs)
The cost of short-term speculators is a relatively important concept in the market environment.
Especially if long-term participants do not sell more, the market will generally return to near the cost of short-term participants and will no longer continue to fall.
This is partly due to short-term participants who, due to psychology and the perception of anchoring effects, tend to reduce selling near cost to prevent them from incurring losses.
Therefore, this data is of great reference significance.
The market is currently around this price. Under normal circumstances, when there is no additional selling pressure, this price is considered a relatively undervalued area.
Of course, at present, we only need to wait until the market pressure and sentiment ease before it can be considered a relatively safe undervalued area.
Mid-term exploration
Short-term holder profit and loss ratio
Short-term and long-term costs
WTR Risk Observation Indicators
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(The following figure shows the profit and loss ratio of short-term participants)
The profit and loss ratio of short-term participants is below 1, and they may be in a period of state adjustment.
At this time, participants in the market for the past six months will fall into anxiety, which will make the market state unstable.
(The figure below shows the cost lines of long-term and short-term participants)
The current cost for short-term participants is 64,400, which is above the BTC market price.
Combined with the profit and loss ratio structure analysis of short-term participants, it may be that the high loss ratio of short-term participants leads to unstable holding status, continuous loss-making selling, and market instability.
Perhaps the market will gain some stability when the situation of short-term participants eases.
(WTR risk observation indicator in the figure below)
At the same time, the risk indicator of ETH in WTR has increased slightly, and the market may still need some time to adjust.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
If we look at it from the perspective of positive online sentiment, the market has rebounded to a certain extent.
However, as the mood of short-term participants in the market is uneasy, adjustments may still take time.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the green zone. Derivatives have low risk.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Consistent with last week's expectations, ETH showed a volatile adjustment. The current risk factor is still in the green zone. Although it is more likely to be short squeezed in the trending market, in the current market, it is still expected to continue to fluctuate this week.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume has declined slightly and the put option ratio is low.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volumes were at low levels.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility fell slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Although market sentiment tends to be pessimistic, judging from the indicators, panic sentiment (orange line) has declined.
In general, if there are no external black swan conditions, it is difficult for panic sentiment (orange line) to continue to rise and cause a sharp drop in the market.
Currently, both positive sentiment (blue line) and panic sentiment (orange line) are at low levels.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small inflow, ETH has a small outflow, and there is a small amount of selling pressure overall.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
There was a small inflow into BTC exchange net positions.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH exchange net positions continue to outflow.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at the moment.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power as a whole is in a state of outflow, and stablecoin purchasing power is lost slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
The current purchasing power in the Americas is the same as last week and is still in a state of loss. The market is more volatile during this period.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT exchanges)
USDT exchange net positions saw a small outflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 63,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000, 61,000, 62,000, and 63,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 60,000, 61,000, 62,000, and 63,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000 and 63,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70000, 71000, 72000 and 73000.
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
Although the BTC ETF has been approved, there are many financial institutions that do not have the financial approval to buy the BTC ETF.
The subsequent continued approval will be the main driving force for funds in the third and fourth quarters of this year, and may open up new demand.
Pay attention to more good inflation data, there is a high probability of an interest rate cut this year.
In the next three months, the market will gradually shift from a downward process to a process of finding a bottom.
On-chain long-term insights:
The market's drastic and bad sentiment of selling at a loss has not yet emerged;
Whales are still in a relative selling phase;
The large amount of incoming transfers from the exchange also indicates that there are currently many orders exceeding 10 million US dollars that are sell orders;
The market has fallen back into the cost area for long-term speculators.
Market setting:
Once sentiment eases and the selling pressure in the market decreases, this position will be an undervalued area.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
If the profit-loss ratio of short-term participants is below 1, the group may be in an unstable state;
The short-term cost is 64,400, and the profit and loss status is low;
ETH has a certain risk of rising;
There are signs of some active recovery in online sentiment.
Market setting:
Adjustment
It is possible that at the tail end of a market adjustment, when short-term holders are in a state of low profit and loss, there will be a certain amount of emotional pressure to vent.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the green area and the risk is low.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a relatively low level, and the market activity is low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a small inflow of BTC and a small outflow of ETH, with a small amount of selling pressure overall.
Global purchasing power as a whole is in a state of outflow, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has been lost to a small extent.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 63,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market setting:
Market sentiment is still in the neutral zone, and panic has declined. The current short-term holder cost line is around 64K, and the market purchasing power has been greatly lost. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate or fall back to the price near the short-term holder cost line.
risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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