Don’t panic – the bull run hasn’t started yet!
The copycat market has not yet been pumped out in a big way.
After the 2016 Bitcoin halving, $BTC fell by more than 30%.
It fell by more than 20% after the 2020 halving.
A few months later, altcoins began to surge.
Here are the reasons why I am bullish on altcoins:
In this topic, we will discuss:
- Why the altcoin season is still far away
- Why many people doubt it will happen
- When will the altcoin bull run begin?
Let’s first look at some indicators that show why the altcoin bull run is still far away:
Many people think that the bull market is over, but in fact it has not yet begun.
Here are the reasons:
In 2021, $BTC is at $70k and crypto videos are seeing 4M daily views.
Now, for the same price, the number of page views per day has dropped to 800,000.
This suggests limited interest but hints at strong growth potential.
Record high dilution rates
In May, nearly 1 million new tokens were issued (excluding Solana tokens).
That’s twice the number of all tokens ever created on Ethereum.
An unprecedented number of tokens are entering the market.
Much lower trading volumes
Bitcoin's price is up, but trading volumes are much lower than in 2021.
Ordinary investors are inactive, short positions are not liquidated, and the participation of retail investors remains low.
Altcoins Have Yet to Surge
Most altcoins have not seen significant gains since Bitcoin’s rally from $27,000 in October.
Only a few strong companies are just beginning to grow.
This slow pace has led to some disappointment in the market.
Too many unlocked tokens
Currently, major projects are unlocking $50 million worth of tokens every day.
Overall, close to $200 million worth of tokens are unlocked every day.
More new tokens means more market flooding, which has the potential to drive prices down.
Bitcoin outperforms altcoins
Bitcoin is only 10% below its all-time high, while altcoins are 80% below their all-time highs.
Since the lows, Bitcoin has surged 400%, while altcoins are up 180%.
Clearly, the growth of altcoins lags behind that of Bitcoin.
Spotting the Peak of the Crypto Bull Run
The cryptocurrency bull run usually peaks when Cb tops the app download charts.
Historically, this has indicated that it is time to sell.
However, this is not happening now.
Only a few coins hit new all-time highs
After the FTX crash, only 8 currencies other than Bitcoin reached their all-time highs.
These coins are:
- $RNDR
- $TRB
- $INJ
- $ASTR
- $SSV
- $AGIX
- $TWT
- $BNB
Google Trends shows declining interest in cryptocurrencies
Global searches for “bitcoin,” “cryptocurrency,” and “altcoin” have dropped significantly.
Compared to 2021, the current interest rate has dropped by about 2.5 times.
Altcoins lag behind Bitcoin
Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin during this cycle but still show growth potential.
The reasons for the divergence of opinion are as follows:
Influencing factors:
- Uneven returns.
- Past indicators are no longer applicable.
Market structure changes
Before: Bitcoin skyrocketed, then Ethereum, followed by high-cap coins, mid/low-cap coins, and meme coins.
Now: Bitcoin surges, followed by memecoins, but what happens next is unclear.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Battle
It usually performs strongly in high-risk markets, but it performed poorly this time.
Meme Coins Leading Too Long
Meme coins have been dominant for a while, so the switching costs are high.
Their growth usually signals the end of a bull market.
No Bitcoin Correction
Bitcoin has not seen the typical 30-40% correction seen in past bull markets.
Some sold early, speculating on a shorter cycle or a super cycle.
When does the altcoin season begin?
In 2017 and 2021, $BTC hit an all-time high approximately 880 days before the halving.
From the lows in 2018 and 2022 to the halvings in 2020 and 2024, there are a total of 510 days.
Both bear markets lasted for 370 days, highlighting the cyclical pattern of cryptocurrencies.
If this scenario repeats itself, the next bull run could peak in October 2025, indicating growth potential for altcoins.
Prices may rise rapidly within 1-2 months but stabilize or fall within 4-6 months.
Buy in the off-season to accumulate assets.
Keep in mind that we have limited data to use for forecasting, and that this cycle may differ from past patterns.
Don't expect the same results
The basics remain:
Solana surges when neglected.
Ethereum got an ETF and is quietly rising (still not as popular as Bitcoin).
Currently, altcoins are receiving little attention, aside from meme coins.
However, as the market cycle moves, the money will eventually flow back to them.
