The main contradiction in the cryptocurrency world right now is between retail investors who don’t make money and CEX/project owners/VCs who make money:

The last 3 loud ones are:

1: There is no bull market for altcoins anymore

2: The hair is done

3: All the coins listed on Binance are high-level nesting dolls

These three voices can be translated as: Retail investors do not make money, they only get cut. The environment where these voices come from: In a big bear market, when the people at the bottom of the cryptocurrency circle do not make money.

The good news is: this noise is a signal of an industry bottom.

The main reason is that the inflow of funds into the BTC ETF, the biggest catalyst of this bull market, has been very slow since March, and the trend of BTC is indeed the same, and it has never been able to stay above 72,000. Now the ETF funds have turned in and out.

From the on-chain data, giant whales holding more than 10,000 coins and holding coins for more than one year are reducing their positions and shipping, which is an extremely bearish signal, perhaps representing the end of the bull market. In addition, the decline in the market in recent days is related to the continued sales by miners and the German government, followed by the selling pressure from Mentougou and a large institution that went bankrupt in 22 years.

Judging from the K-line analysis, it fell below the important support level of 64,000 last night. The next strong support is 60,000-61,000. Once it falls below 60,000 again, I think it will be difficult to get back up for a long time.

From the perspective of liquidity, the issuance of USDT has slowed down significantly.

From a macro perspective, since the main theme of market speculation is the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the price of BTC has risen a lot as the interest rate cut approaches, it is possible that when the interest rate is actually cut, it will be the time for a big correction. Currently, the Nasdaq is mainly driven by a few large technology stocks, and as the hype expectations of NVDA increase, the risk of a correction is also increasing. In addition, XAU is in a correction, and DXY is still very strong

Exposure of leveraged funds in professional crypto markets has fallen to lows not seen in recent years.

Apart from BTC, there is no need to say much about the miserable situation of other ALTS. In addition to the fact that there are too many and too harsh sickles in this cycle, another important factor is that there are far from enough new leeks and takeover funds in this cycle, or even too little. The current market sentiment in the crypto market is too bad.

At present, most altcoins have returned to the starting point before the rising wave in early 2024. Will the market continue to fall deeply or is it preparing for the bull market rhythm in the second half of 2024?

Since March, despite no major bearish events, most altcoins are down an average of 60-80% from their recent peaks.

Compared with the adjustment rhythm of previous years, there is an overlap point in the "third week of June" every year, which is the cumulative turning point before the strong rise of altcoins, especially the period when new coins were at the forefront in 2020. Series in the second and third quarters.

Both LayerZero and ZKsync have sparked controversy in the community about how to distribute airdrops. The market has seen a "selling rhythm", causing altcoins to continue bleeding after $ZK. Complete airdrops and TGEs on CEX, usually from batches of $OP May 2022 airdrops. So far, market sell-offs have occurred every time a TGE is completed in the "airdrop to" phase, especially the Layer2 Auntie Airdrop Association and the subsequent "mid-term" fluctuations are in line with the cyclical nature of the market. market.

Another short-term bottom signal was when Tether continued to have FUD on June 19, and the market saw the emergence of “FUD stablecoins”. In the past, Bitcoin often created short-term bottoms when major stablecoins such as USDT and USDC saw FUD.

Usually, negative news about stablecoins will make people afraid to hold stablecoins, especially when the altcoin sell-off is strong => create a fear of entering the market => cash out is protected.

Since June 13, the Fed has revealed the possibility of a decline in 2024, and it is likely to do so on September 18. A decline and easing of cash flows in the medium term will be very positive news for the market. However, in the short term, it is more likely to be a "fake news" event, so there is a high probability that financial markets, especially crypto, will reflect on the previous price line => According to this timing, it will be the beginning of the third quarter of 2024 when the market will prosper again.

The Altcoin Seasonal Index (18) shows accumulation “bottom” areas. Based on past data, these are oversold areas and are very stable to buy, or not the time to sell at all.

In the past 90 days, only 9 projects (TON, ONDO, PEPE…) have grown faster than BTC. These projects represent the narratives that led the growth earlier this year: RWA, Memecoin, Telegram Bot…

The story around AI — The AI ​​story has not cooled down yet as Nvidia has emerged as the world’s most valuable company (a position that previously belonged to Microsoft). The AI ​​x Crypto space has also diversified and will continue to indirectly benefit from the NVDA story in the near future!

With Binance’s listing on the exchange expected in 2024, Binance is clearly taking hasty action in listing new projects, with implicit signs that foreshadow major trends in the cryptocurrency market in the near future.