The latest research from Matrixport Research Institute shows that the recent focus is on:
BTC’s realized volatility is approaching multi-year lows, and options investing may be a good idea at the time.
The SEC is likely to approve the S-1 application, and ETH spot holdings surge
BTC options trading shows bullish sentiment, and expectations for market growth in 2025 are rising
As the market enters a summer consolidation phase, the decline in volatility allows investors to purchase options at a lower cost without taking on excessive market risk. The demand signals for fiat-to-cryptocurrency conversions have weakened, indicating that a period of calm may be coming, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment is relatively low. Therefore, investors should adopt a rational positioning strategy.
BTC’s realized volatility is approaching multi-year lows, and options investing may be a good idea at the time.
Bitcoin’s realized volatility is approaching multi-year lows. A year ago, when volatility fell to similar levels, Matrix on Target suggested that investors could use options to express their views while keeping the majority of their crypto assets in Treasury-backed stablecoins with stable returns.
The SEC is likely to approve the S-1 application, and ETH spot holdings surge
As of May 23, the SEC has officially approved the 19b-4 applications submitted by eight asset management companies. These companies have applied to list and trade Ethereum ETFs on US exchanges, but have not yet completed the S-1 registration statement. As a result, the open interest of Ethereum futures has surged from US$7.5 billion to US$13 billion, and the funding rate has increased to 27% annualized.
While the best market periods are often just before a product is launched (or listed) and is about to receive SEC approval, sell-offs are often seen after the product is listed, such as the Bitcoin futures listing in December 2017, the Coinbase IPO in April 2021, the futures-based Bitcoin ETF in October 2021, and the Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024.
However, the market believes that the SEC will approve the S-1 application soon and the ETH ETF will be listed between July and September this year. Once the summer consolidation period ends, the market will usher in another wave of bullishness. Prudent investors can take advantage of the low volatility environment to protect their portfolios through options, or buy call options to obtain strategic gains while taking advantage of the exposure of mainstream cryptocurrencies to obtain "risk-free" returns.
Bitcoin options trading shows bullish sentiment, diverging from BTC price trend
BTC fell more than 1% in the past 24 hours to $64,500 (data as of 2PM on the 21st). However, QCP Capital said that the large-scale purchase of options with expiration dates in December and March and strike prices of $90,000 to $100,000 in the past 24 hours indicated that the market was bottoming out and preparing for a rebound that could last until 2025. The bullish sentiment in the options market diverges from the price trend of Bitcoin, especially in the long-term market, showing investors' expectations of future price increases.
Some of the above views come from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full report of Matrix on Target.
