June 21 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Continued to fall, confidence is about to fall, how to deal with it?

The last 4 days of the options competition: CC competition options competition continues. The first prize is about 1400 U, and the minimum is 240 U.

I. Core Views

① BTC fell below MA 120, and ETFs continued to net outflow. Those with too heavy positions or even leverage can remove risky leverage. I hold 70% of my spot positions and am not reducing my positions at present;

② Yesterday, I mentioned a point of view that players who follow large positions to buy single-leg options will basically lose money in the long run and eat up high-priced food;

③ Yesterday's research report mentioned that it is highly likely that the implicit volatility of the ETH call end cannot be sustained, and today's volatility reduction is 7-10 different dates

④ Some high-quality copycat options have good short volatility opportunities, such as #ordi, #kas, #Ton, #Near. In this round of L1, the ones that have been building and causing trouble are #Sol, #Ton, and #Near.

2. Options Block Trade

BTC block trade positions are all around 200 (short call spread, long risk reversal, long risk reversal, the overall view is that it will not rise or rise sharply, and the overall outlook is bullish)

sell BTC-26JUL24-71000-C + buy BTC-26JUL24-78000-C

sell BTC-28JUN24-65000-P + buy BTC-28JUN24-68000-C

sell BTC-28JUN24-62000-P + buy BTC-28JUN24-70000-C

Note: BTC block trades are still more valuable for reference

ETH block trade positions are all naked buy call positions of 2000-3000, the doomsday round

buy ETH-28JUN24-3700-C

buy ETH-22JUN24-3625-C

buy ETH-22JUN24-3525-C

sol has no obvious guiding significance, and there are many positions closed.

3. Macro market

US stocks continue to be strong, and there is no change in the views of several mid-term targets. Regarding positions, I will hold 50-60% in TLT, and hold TMF in stages; the remaining 20-30% in TSLA; the rest of the positions are traded in DPST or held in cash (the trading strategy is on the planet, and you can ask questions at any time if you don’t understand. The trading strategy can reduce a lot of holding costs)

There is nothing to say about the A-share market. The macroeconomic situation at this point depends on the narrative of the July meeting. If there is no meeting, lower expectations. I will continue to increase my subjective long positions in blue-chip stocks, and the long positions in December and September vega have recently reduced their positions, so hold them.