On June 20, the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, marking the second consecutive rate cut. The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive time. The market tends to believe that the Bank of England will cut interest rates for the first time in August. Gold rose by more than 1% in the day, reaching $2,360 per ounce, a new high since June 7, and silver rose by 3% in the day, and the price of gold stopped falling.

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The Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission released its 2023-24 annual report, which pointed out that as of March 3, 2024, the total number of licensed institutions and individuals and registered institutions reached 47,851, including 44,493 licensed individuals, 112 registered institutions, and 3,246 licensed institutions, of which 2,140 were licensed to conduct Category 9 (providing asset management) regulated activities. 23 virtual asset trading platform applications were submitted under the Anti-Money Laundering Ordinance. As of March 31, 2024, 2 virtual asset trading platforms had been licensed under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. 234 on-site inspections were conducted on licensed institutions and related entities. The first tokenized private open-end fund company registered by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission was established in December 2023, and the first tokenized retail gold product was approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission in March 2024. ZodiaCustody, a digital asset custody company founded by Standard Chartered Bank, announced that it has received investment from the National Australia Bank and plans to provide services to local institutional clients. Laser Digital Limited, the cryptocurrency division of Nomura Securities, has obtained a broker license for traditional and digital assets in the Abu Dhabi region. According to HODL15Capital statistics, at least 40 billionaires in the world hold BTC, with Musk at the top. Andrei Grachev, partner of DWF Labs, said that he would look for undervalued tokens to add to the portfolio to welcome the next bull market. Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, reported that the average price of the top 115 tokens has fallen 50% from its 2024 high, and these losses will continue to intensify unless cryptocurrency liquidity is significantly improved.

At present, BTC-11% and ETH-13% are relatively stable, which may be due to the transfer of traders from cottage to these two mainstreams. This phenomenon has occurred in the past two market cycles. Effective risk management has become the key to survival. Token unlocking and unfavorable cryptocurrency liquidity indicators are considered to be the main causes of this plunge. According to a research report by brokerage firm Bernstein, BTC and cryptocurrency-related stocks are undervalued and suitable for institutional adoption. It believes that BTC ETF will be approved by major securities companies and large private banking platforms in the third and fourth quarters. The spot BTCETF was first approved in the United States in January, greatly broadening the channels for people to invest in the world's largest cryptocurrency. On June 20, the Swiss National Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the second consecutive rate cut, in line with market expectations. The Swiss National Bank said: If necessary, it will be ready to intervene in the money market. The market expects the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again in September to return monetary policy to a neutral level. On June 20, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive time, in line with market expectations. Most members of the Bank of England are divided on the importance of recent data, suggesting that more policymakers may be close to supporting a rate cut, thus maintaining hopes of loosening monetary policy before the end of the summer. The market increased bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates, expecting a 47 basis point cut this year, and tending to make the first rate cut in August. Spot gold extended its intraday gains to more than 1%, standing above $2,360 per ounce, a new high since June 7, as recent U.S. economic data showed signs of slowing growth, boosting bets on the Fed to cut interest rates this year. Spot silver rose 3% intraday.

"We track 37 central banks, 20 of which are already cutting rates, and the Fed is likely to join them at some point this year," JPMorgan said. With the Swiss National Bank initiating its second rate cut this year, the debate over when the Fed will cut rates and when it will achieve its 2% inflation target has intensified. Analyst Jake Lloyd-Smith said that in the past six months, gold and silver have still set multiple records, and even skeptics admit that gold and silver have performed quite well. If the Fed and other major central banks choose to start a rate cut cycle, it will improve the overall atmosphere of gold at the end of the year. U.S. Treasury yields fell back to around 4.70% (two-year), and U.S. mortgage rates fell below 7% (6.94%) for the first time since March last week, as inflation and retail data showed that the U.S. economy may eventually cool enough to cut interest rates. Swap dealers believe that the Fed has a more than 60% chance of cutting interest rates as early as September. The market is paying attention to the core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, released on June 28, which is expected to show "very mild" price pressures in May. Bernstein said that the $779 billion spot BTC ETF is about to be approved by major financial institutions, and the inflow of BTC ETF is expected to accelerate again in the third quarter/fourth quarter. The current turbulent market is providing new entry points, and then institutional demand will usher in the next round of recovery. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said that there will be a large number of spot ETH ETF S-1 amendments today and tomorrow, and one or two issuers may apply to merge spot BTC and ETH ETFs next week. QCPCapital believes that despite the uncertainty surrounding the acceptance of ETH spot ETFs, if 10-20% of BTC ETF flow can be obtained, it may push ETH to break through $4,000. I felt the despair of the continuous decline a few days ago, and the currency market stopped falling in the past two days, and I felt that it could be rescued. This kind of "despair to snickering" has been felt too many times as an old leek. The last time I felt it was in May, and I came through it every time. As for the prospects, the old man is optimistic. The spring rises, the summer pullback, the autumn and winter rises, and it is currently regarded as a squat before the next peak. #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析 #币安合约锦标赛