The market has been very quiet recently. The fur-pulling industry has taught many project parties how to use PUA. At the same time, the market conditions have been neither up nor down, the volatility has dropped significantly, and various types of runaway dog projects have emerged in an endless stream. Although the market coin price has not fallen sharply now, it has become difficult for many people to hold on. Many people have begun to turn their attention to the secondary market and plan to deploy potential coins for the next bull market in the hope of obtaining higher returns.
The secondary market is not a good investment direction in a bear market, but if you want to plan for the next bull market, you can do some research. For investors, the most stable ones are the top mainstream coins, such as BTC/ETH, followed by the platform coins of the top exchanges, such as BNB/OKB, and then some altcoins. According to the performance of the previous bull and bear markets, the secondary market coins generally have the following characteristics:
1. The top 100 will be partially reshuffled in the next bull market
2. The top three mainstream coins generally do not fluctuate much, but the price increase will also be relatively low.
3. Most opportunities tend to appear outside the top 100, and most are outside the top 500
4. Most of the altcoins that have experienced a bull and bear cycle will lag far behind in ranking
5. Altcoins that emerge in a bear market may often perform better in a bull market
For participants, there are many types of altcoins in the current market. Many exchanges have listed thousands of currencies, and in the bear market, many altcoins have been delisted by exchanges for various reasons. Therefore, how to find potential altcoins is very critical. For this reason, many people often spend time studying altcoins ranked outside the top 500 in the hope of finding potential coins.
However, the above method was feasible in the last bull market. For example, First Class Warehouse discovered AAVE in this way and made huge profits. However, they did not do so in this bear market. On the one hand, many currencies have their own value systems, and it is difficult to find potential currencies. On the other hand, there are too many types of currencies now, and investment institutions already have their own research attributes. Therefore, these potentials have long been inevitably targeted by institutions. Therefore, most talents are paying more and more attention to the financing information of currencies. Of course, there are also fake financing information now, which makes it more difficult to see the essence of these currencies.
Based on the above reasons, we plan to start with the altcoins launched on Binance, study the trends of the currencies and projects newly launched on Binance in recent years, and then study the layout of the institutions. The main reason is that Binance, as a leading exchange, has carefully selected the currencies it has launched, while other exchanges such as gateio have also launched many currencies, but too many types will interfere with our vision. Therefore, giving priority to Binance is the best choice.
To this end, we spent a lot of time to count the overall situation of the currencies listed on Binance in recent years. The data includes from July 2017 to May 2023, and came to the following conclusions:
1. In the second half of 2017, Binance launched a lot of currencies (about 60), but about half of them cannot be found now. That is, before 2023, nearly half of these currencies had been delisted, and the data performance was relatively poor. Of course, there are also some good currencies, such as ARK / ENJ / STORJ / CDT / WAVES / XLM / LEND (AAVE) / LRC, etc. Overall, these currencies account for less than one-third of the currencies that performed well in the bull market in 2021.
2. The number of currencies launched on Binance in 2018 has decreased (also about 60 for the whole year). Some currencies have been delisted now, but the overall number of delisted currencies is much less than that in 2017, roughly half of that in 2017. The data performance is okay. Of course, the number of currencies with good performance in the future market has also increased, such as IOTX/SC/KEY/RVN/DCR/REN/REP/FET, etc. However, among the currencies launched in 2018, there are almost no DeFi currencies that are popular in the future market. The main style is still decentralized DApp and public chain, as well as some application projects.
3. The number of currencies launched on Binance in 2019 has dropped by about half compared with the previous period. However, other trading pairs of some of the previous currencies have been improved. In this process, the number of currencies that have been delisted has dropped to single digits, reaching a very low level. At the same time, it seems that many excellent currencies are launched at this time, such as CELR / THETA / MATIC / ATOM / FTM / ALGO / DOGE / COCOS / CHZ / XTZ / NKN / STX / KAVA / FTT, etc. The launched currencies are mainly concentrated in August and before, because in September and later of that year, the market fell, popularity declined, and it was relatively sluggish. Of course, some public chains and later DeFi currencies have been launched at this time.
4. In 2020, Binance launched about 80 new tokens, which is nearly three times the number in 2019. Most of the currencies were launched in May and later, which also means that the bull market has begun. Among these currencies, about half have performed well in 2021, such as SAND/CTSI/CHR/KNC/SNX/WNXM/OCEAN/SUSHI/AXS/ROSE, etc. However, some of the newly launched tokens have a high opening and low closing trend. The reason for this phenomenon may be that investors are not fully adapted to the bull market. However, many of these currencies have performed very well in 2021.
5. The number of currencies launched on Binance in 2021 is close to that in 2020. Of course, the number of popular tokens has further increased. Tokens such as TWT / CELO / DODO / LIT / CFX / ALICE / MIR / LPT / MASK / AR / C98 / YGG / BICO / ALCX / CVX / ANY / RNDR have performed well in the bull market. Of course, some tokens have also been delisted. We believe that this is mainly due to the bull market.
6. The number of tokens launched in 2022 is nearly half of that in 2021. Some projects that we are familiar with now appeared at this time, such as ANC / ACA / API3 / APE / LDO / OP / APT, etc. Because the time is close to now, we cannot judge the quality of the project based on its familiarity.
7. In 2023, currencies such as ARB/ID/SUI/PEPE have a high popularity in the market, but they cannot be used as a basis for judging the quality of a project.
If we judge according to the "carving the boat" argument, we can draw the following conclusions:
1. As we have seen, in 2022 and 2023, the market turned to a bear market. Based on the performance from 2017 to 2019, we should focus on the tokens launched on Binance in 2023. We can temporarily ignore those in 2021 and study those in 2022 as appropriate. We also need to pay more attention to the tokens launched in early 2024, because many of them may explode in 2025.
2. From now on, the current Layer2 sector (OP and ARB) is equivalent to the two cross-chain giants (ATOM and DOT) during the bear market in 2019. Judging from the cross-chain performance in 2019, they can persist until the bull market in 2021, which means that OP and ARB in the layer2 sector are very likely to persist until the next bull market (24-25 years), and the probability of this is very high.
3. DeFi tokens began to be launched in 2019, and DeFi exploded in 2020. If this model can be reproduced normally, then in 2023, a token from a certain sector may lead the bull market in 2024. Here we also need to pay more attention to the sector in which the token is located.
Judging from the comparison results, we need to further screen out the tokens that have been launched on multiple exchanges in 23 years, preferably including Binance, and then classify them into sectors to find a potential sector. The next step is to focus on the layout of this sector, so that we may be able to seize a wave of opportunities in the next bull market.
Finally, of course, it is impossible to perfectly replicate every bull market, but generally speaking, there will be sector rotation in the bull market. We can also focus on a specific sector (such as public chain, layer2, LSD, infrastructure, computing power, storage, derivatives, AI, RWA, etc.), and wait until the bull market to only take advantage of the market that is within our own cognition. This is also a good way.