Original author: Crypto, Distilled
Original translation: TechFlow
When will the consolidation end? Despite the general pessimism and anger, the price of $BTC is only 15% below its high. Famous trader @BobLoukas offers hope:
The darkness before dawn, mid-cycle reaccumulation, and the emergence of cycle highs
Here are his main points.
Monthly chart:
We reached the all-time high of the previous cycle in the 16th month, and the previous cycle took more than two years. We are now in the third month of sideways trading.
Historically, $BTC has paused after reaching its all-time high before reaching its final cycle peak. A longer period of sideways movement means the next rally will be healthier and stronger.
Weekly chart:
It has now been consolidating for 14 weeks following the ETF news and is down 12% from its highs. This volatility is expected after the rally that nearly doubled from its recent lows in January 2024.
Notably, the 7-week cycle low in January was $38,000 (a price doubling).
Why didn’t the market go higher?
Bob points out several key factors:
Whales from the previous cycle sold near $60,000
Concerns about potential monthly doubling top
GBTC outflows (selling pressure)
Transfer from on-chain assets to ETF assets
ETF expectations are priced in early
Q4 2023 rally driven by ETF hype
When will the shock end?
Be patient, it has risen 3 times since September 2023 and needs to pull back to gain momentum.
Similar to the doubling post-cycle low in the first quarter of 2023, a broad base formation preceded the fourth quarter uptick.
The volatility may continue until July or August, completing the bottoming out.
When might the market peak?
Based on the 4-year cycle, the peak may still be a long way off.
Past cycles have typically taken 33-35 months from low to high.
Following this model, October 2025 is possible (16-17 months away).
The large gap between the 10-month moving average and price suggests that a pullback might be due.
Why is everyone so angry?
Bob explained that this bull market feels tough for a lot of people:
Chasing speculative altcoins (competition among investors is fierce).
Like previous cycles, wait for a 30-35% drop and buy at the highs after missing out.
Possible trends
We may see the next local bottom soon, possibly towards the end of the month.
Bullish signs include higher lows and well above the January 2024 low, showing market strength.
After this local bottom, one scenario is to sweep it and retake the highs.
The second possible scenario is a continuation of the volatile price trend.
This phase may last until September, forming a local bottom but not breaking the historical high.
The third possibility is another 30% drop, which has been typical in past bull markets. Similar to 2017, but now with ETFs, which is an important difference.
Some people think that it is impossible to reach $55,000 or so with ETFs, Bob strongly disagrees.
Trend Convergence
All three trends converge around October, November, and December 2024, with the goal of breaking out of the all-time high and advancing further. During this period, Bitcoin’s movements could significantly impact altcoin ROI.
Emotional reset:
Bob believes that the restart of market sentiment after the surge in April is positive. On-chain data shows that coins are shifting to long-term holders. As new holders accumulate in the higher range, a solid foundation is formed. Dips may be buying opportunities.
Bob's Buying Strategy
Bob last bought near the cycle low around $17,000. Now, he is eyeing potential buying opportunities in the $BTC range below $50,000. He suggests that those who are under-positioned can consider adding to their positions during this volatility.
Macro Top in 2025
Bob expects the second phase of the cycle to be healthier. He believes the market highs will occur in the second half of the current cycle.
But the peak timing may vary, possibly in the second quarter of 2024 (30th month) or earlier, and unlikely to be the fourth quarter of 2025.
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