Wall Street is back?! Two important turning points in the cryptocurrency market are approaching. Will this be a sign of a market reversal? Should we buy the dips now? What are the issues in the current market that investors need to pay attention to? Let's follow Shuqin to find out.
The cryptocurrency market fell terribly a few days ago. In just 24 hours, 160,000 people were liquidated, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies fell by 300 billion. Who is selling? It turns out that the problem lies in these two places.
According to the latest report from BitFinex, the recent sell-off did not come from ETFs, but was caused by miners.
This is because after the production of Bitcoin was halved, the original electricity fee of 60,000 US dollars could produce two BTC, but now only one can be produced. This means that miners need to sell all the coins they produced to repay the electricity bill. Before the halving, miners could only sell half and keep the rest, so now miners with low production capacity are struggling and forced to sell.
Even cryptocurrency analyst Willy pointed out many days ago that the market will only recover after weak miners are eliminated. Therefore, compared with the 10% drop in Bitcoin, the reshuffle of miners with doubling of mining costs is actually more cruel.
Judging from the K-line, Bitcoin has even reached the vital lower edge of the ascending triangle.
As long as it holds here, it will be the clarion call for a full-scale counterattack. It will first reach 69,000 and then wait for an opportunity to break through. This will be the most perfect script. Now it has started to rebound. I hope everything goes well and everyone stay vigilant.
Shuqin also seized the opportunity and helped everyone gain more support at the 65,000 support level, which made her very happy.
In fact, if you look at the options market, you will find that Wall Street is still optimistic.
Among the $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring at the end of July, the call-to-put ratio is as high as 2 to 1. Among them, the main exercise price bets for call options are concentrated at 100,000 and 80,000, with an average of 85,000.
Although this seems high, in fact, as long as Bitcoin can break through its previous high before the end of July, it will definitely rise sharply. A 10% increase will reach 85,000, so this is actually not outrageous. Most options traders still expect it to successfully break through before the end of next month.
As for put options, they are mainly around 60,000, and the average is also about 60,000. So the current situation is that if it falls, it will only fall to 60,000, but if it rises, it can rise a lot, because options bet on the price of Bitcoin at a certain time in the future, so from this point of view, the profit and loss ratio of bottom fishing is still quite cost-effective.
As for small coins, it is similar to what we analyzed a week or two ago. It has gone through the C wave decline as expected. Although the decline is a little bit more than I expected, the general direction is fine.
These coins have already fallen 40-50% from their previous highs, so I really did what I said in the previous program, if there is a C wave, I will go all in! I am also making a small profit at the moment.
Although we may not have bought at the very bottom, we did buy at a relatively low point. Look at those people whose Ondo or People were at 1.5 at the top of the mountain, their losses were almost halved, that was really painful.
So in comparison, our performance is still pretty good. At least the current market trend has not exceeded expectations too much, and the advantages accumulated day by day and month by month will snowball.
For example, after the Ondo market recovers, it rises to 2u. If you enter the market at 1u, you can double your profit. But if you enter the market at 1.5, you can only make 30% at 2u, a difference of 3 times in profit.
We will publish these operations in real time every day. Babies who want to follow me can come and have a look.
Okay, let’s get back to the point. Although the cryptocurrency market has fallen so much, there are still two major positives worth looking forward to in the near future. The first is that the Ethereum ETF we talked about in the last issue has a high probability of being listed on the New York Stock Exchange ahead of schedule on July 2.
By then, there will surely be all kinds of reports flying around, which will probably inject new vitality into the long-dormant cryptocurrency world.
The second most important event in the near future is that the PCE price index, which is the most valued by the Federal Reserve, will be released at 8:30 p.m. next Friday. This data is more important than the CPI.
Because if you often listen to the Federal Reserve’s speeches, you will know that what they talk about most is PCE rather than CPI, and the market is in urgent need of such data to confirm whether inflation has really begun to decline again.
The previous value of PCE was 2.7%, while the market expectation was 2.6%, which is considered to be a default positive.
The previous value of core PCE was 2.8%, but the market expectation reached an astonishing 2.6%, so it can be said that the market has high hopes for this PCE. After all, whether the interest rate can be cut in September, and whether the interest rate will be cut once or twice this year really depends on every current data.
The last time the CPI was favorable, Bitcoin soared from 66,000 to more than 70,000. If it continues to fall this time, it may not only be a positive for inflation, it may even be a turning point in the Fed’s policy. At present, the probability of a favorable news is still very high.
So let’s pray, the future of the cryptocurrency world lies in these few data!
