The U.S. stock market was closed on Wednesday, and there was no outflow from spot ETFs such as Grayscale, and the cryptocurrency market rebounded slightly. At the close of Tuesday, the S&P 500 index closed up 0.25%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.03%. Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the U.S. recession indicator, said: Powell and his colleagues are "playing with fire". If they do not take gradual interest rate cuts now, it may cause the U.S. economy to fall into contraction, forcing them to take more radical actions.

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The proposal of the Financial Services Commission of South Korea to establish a new virtual asset department has been approved. The revised job system and its related implementation rules will be announced and implemented on the 25th of this month. The virtual asset department will undertake the necessary management and supervision work to establish the order of the virtual asset market and protect users. The Hong Kong Securities and Exchange Commission published the "2023-24 Annual Report", which mentioned that it added a new chapter to the "Anti-Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Ordinance". This chapter aims to assist the industry in dealing with the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing caused by the unique characteristics of virtual assets when engaging in virtual asset-related businesses, and ensure compliance with relevant statutory and regulatory provisions. Consensys said that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will end its investigation into ETH 2.0, which means that the SEC will not accuse the sale of ETH of securities trading. On June 18, Australia's first spot BTC ETF (IBTC) went online and has increased its holdings by 53 BTC so far. Trump's cryptocurrency holdings plummeted, with holdings shrinking by about US$4.08 million per day, leaving only US$10 million. On June 5, its cryptocurrency holdings once exceeded $31 million, a two-week drop of more than 67%. BTC research analyst Tuur Demeester predicts that BTC will usher in large-scale adoption due to ETF approval, especially in the U.S. financial system. Good financial products and deep liquidity make it the focus of global attention. It is expected that BTC will continue to attract the adoption of public companies and promote the popularity of BTC in the United States. He is confident in the long-term prospects of BTC. In response to the decline in the crypto market, Henrik Anderrson, chief investment officer of asset management company ApolloCrypto, said that he could not determine the main reason for the market decline. The recent decline in interest in spot BTC ETFs may be one of the factors. He said: From what we have seen, there is no obvious catalyst, but it looks like the negative flow of BTC ETFs has led to weakness in the altcoin, which has triggered the liquidation of leveraged longs in BTC, ETH and Doge.

Matrixport said that the continued decline in BTC fees reflects the weakening optimism in the market environment. Although there has been a correlation between fees and holdings in the past, current holdings are still at a high level, which may lead to a short-term drop in prices before hitting a new record high. Potential spot ETH ETF issuers are responding to comments on the S-1 form received from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last week and plan to submit a response by Friday this week. The revised S-1 filing for the spot ETH ETF submitted by Bitwise includes a description of a $2.5 million seed investment. Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said the approval time depends on how quickly the issuer responds to feedback. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that eight companies, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are expected to push the listing application for the ETH spot ETF through final approval. Analysts predict that the ETH ETF may be launched in early July, and the flow may reach 20% of the BTC ETF. Data shows that ETH ETP has a net inflow of 86,472 ETH for four consecutive weeks, while BTCETP has a net outflow of 12,523 BTC. Data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. retail sales rate in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the April data was revised down from 0% to -0.2%; the core retail sales monthly rate was -0.10%, lower than the expected 0.20%, and the same as the previous value after the downward revision. Economists and analysts said that the weaker-than-expected retail sales report in May may help support the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September.

Economist Paul Ashworth said: At the margin, even if consumption growth slows only slightly, GDP growth is expected to slow as well, which is enough for the Fed to choose to cut interest rates in September. Economist Mohamed El-Erian said that if the Fed waits until December to cut interest rates, the risk is that it will be "too late and the economy will slow more than it should." According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in September is about 67%, up from about 61.5% on Monday. The Bank of America survey showed that 84% of investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates at some point in 2024, 33% of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in the next 12 months, 31% of respondents expect three cuts, and 14% expect more than three cuts. Only 8% believe that the Fed will not cut interest rates during this period; 39% of investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, 16% of investors expect a cut in November, 23% of investors expect a cut in December, and 6% of investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates as early as July. Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the recession indicator, said: If the Fed does not take gradual interest rate cuts now, it may cause the economy to fall into contraction and then into recession, which may force them to take more aggressive actions. Powell and his colleagues are "playing with fire." Fed's Goolsbee said: "The inflation data released last week performed "excellently" and I hope to see more similar data; this time inflation expectations have been anchored, and the inflation data released last week performed "excellently"; if you look at it from a long-term perspective, you can't help but feel optimistic."

The US stock market was closed on Wednesday. There was no outflow from ETFs such as Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity. Bitcoin and copycats rebounded slightly. At the close of the US stock market on Tuesday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.25%, setting a new high. The Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.03%. Nvidia rose 3.5%, becoming the company with the highest market value in the world, with a market value of 3.34 trillion US dollars. The currency market has experienced sharp rises and falls. Time is more important than anything else. Every time, it is hard to survive time in exchange for space (bulls survive for gains, and bears survive for losses). This time is no exception. Before August, various analyses were needed to find reasons/excuses for the decline and fool ourselves. In September, various analyses may no longer be needed, because the Federal Reserve was on the verge of loosening monetary stimulus at that time, just like at the beginning of this year, the market was confident that the interest rate would be cut six times throughout the year, and began to rise without thinking (a similar situation occurred at the beginning of last year). At the end of this year, there may be expectations of pricing the number of interest rate cuts for the whole year of next year (the current Federal Reserve interest rate of 5.5% is too high to be maintained). We have experienced lows and highs time and again. We are now going through the lows and heading for the next high. The basic route is clear. The rest is just a matter of time. #BTC走势分析 #美联储何时降息？ #币安HODLer空投