The last week has seen a deep bear market. The view I gave you yesterday and the day before yesterday was that this position takes into account extreme situations. The extreme position of the big cake is around 64,300. The probability of occurrence is very small, but if it reaches that point, anyone can make a short-term bottom-buying move. At present, it seems very accurate. It has been steadily recovering, and I don’t know if it can stabilize.
This small drop in Bitcoin has brought down the altcoins again. From March to now, the average altcoins have dropped by more than 50%, and no one has survived. If you make money in the altcoins in the past two months and don't sell them, you will be trapped. But historically, there are many cases of 50% correction in the bull market. After that, the sideways period is generally 2 to 4 months, and the explosive period is generally 1 to 2 months, and the upward space is about 5 times. Now it has been in the bottom range for 2 months, and perhaps the most difficult time is about to pass, so hold on to what you have in your hands. Now many altcoins have returned to the bottom. It is meaningless to sell at a loss at this time. On the other hand, for those who like altcoins, it may be a better accumulation opportunity.
A question that many people are concerned about is whether there is still altcoin season now? According to statistics, the total market value of altcoins will reach its peak 546 days after the last halving. Now that more than 60 days have passed since the halving, that is, in mid-October of 25 years, the bull market of cryptocurrencies will be completely over. So now is the stage to wash out those who are not firm. Yesterday, ETFs continued to flow out, but the outflow of Grayscale was not large. However, the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment made it difficult for spot ETFs to see positive inflows. I don’t know when the reversal will happen.
The most critical support level of 6.6w was broken, and the death cross appeared on the 4-hour trend chart. In addition, Bitcoin is now below the MA200 moving average, and many people's emotions have become somewhat negative. Bitcoin must stand above 6.8 to establish bullish confidence, which seems to be a bit difficult now. You can also see that Bitcoin is more stable than in the past, and even so, it has never fallen by more than 30%. This is because there is a spot ETF, so Bitcoin has not suffered a large-scale collapse, but the decline of altcoins is very large.
Under such uncertain market conditions, many people will focus on the big pie, and the pressure on the copycat will be even greater. Now everyone is waiting for the trend to reverse. The turning point is that the Federal Reserve begins to continue to cut interest rates, and the Ethereum sector, because its ETF has not yet been approved. If the ETF is approved, Ethereum will definitely explode. Now the overall market is being washed out, and the next outbreak may be when Ethereum is approved. However, the approval of Ethereum will be around September at the earliest and December at the slowest.
You said there are still three months to wait, right? But we still have to go the way we should go. Then we don’t need to look at all the current ones, there is nothing good to see. Those who are capable can consider filling this position, but in this very painful market, it is still recommended that everyone should improve themselves and supplement some knowledge, which can reduce some detours. Of course, knowledge is definitely useful, whether it is mentality, system, position, stop profit and stop loss, analysis of certain pressures, or some basic skills, they are all helpful to you.
So what we want to encourage everyone is to build their own system, a keen sense and control of the market. Then long-term opportunities must be generated in the big drop. Everyone should know that the current correction is only temporary, and never fall on the eve of the big bull market. Now the fomo sentiment is serious, so everyone must be calm, the more bullish the market, the more stable it is.
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