Market Analysis – AltCoin plunges, the market redefines what value is
The maximum decline of BTC and ETH in the past week was only about 5-10%. The decline was not large compared with previous weeks. However, the AltCoin market experienced the largest decline in the past three months, with generally falling by more than 20%. Especially on Tuesday, there was a single-day drop of more than 10%. Many currencies have fallen below key support. It can be said that it has dealt another heavy blow to the AltCoin market that has already entered a bear market. Within three days, the total liquidation amount of the entire network reached 600 million US dollars. , setting the largest liquidation amount since April 12, and the Bitcoin spot ETF also experienced net outflows for four consecutive days.
Looking at the behavior of the cryptocurrency market since March, the strong are always strong, but only in some currencies or sectors. Most AltCoins have fallen back a lot from their highs, which is very different from the general rise in the past bull markets. However, even though new projects in this market continue to come online, and the valuations are astronomical once they are launched, the extremely high FDV has greatly reduced the willingness of the secondary market to take over. This can be felt from the king-level projects that have been launched recently, such as BB, IO, ZK is a project with a market value of hundreds of millions of dollars upon launch. However, these projects have not actually generated actual revenue or solved any common problems in the blockchain. Many of them are more like products packaged by VC.
It can be seen from the differentiation of the AI track that the market has a new definition of value. Just on the day of the deadline, NVDA’s stock price hit a record high, and its market value officially surpassed Microsoft and Pinguo to become the company with the highest market value in the world. In contrast, the cryptocurrency The AI sector has been extremely miserable. FET has dropped 60% from its high point since March, WLD has dropped 75% since March, and TAO has dropped more than 50% since April. Market investors have completely stopped buying these currencies, or it can be said that It is believed that these currencies have no such value at all. In the past, they were just capital games created by speculation. Now they have to return to the essence of the product. This trend will probably continue until there are no new outside funds or new business models.
Looking at the trend of BTC, this wave of decline has caused the trend to be normally below the 200 EMA line, and also fell below the $65,000 yellow support zone. In the short term, there may be demand for a rebound after falling, but the medium and long-term trend has been destroyed. It may go down to test the next low of US$61,000 to US$63,000 in the near future. For other AltCoins to see the general rise in the past, it may also depend on whether BTC can hit new highs and create a new round of wealth creation effect. Otherwise, judging from the current trend, whether BTC is consolidating or falling, AltCoin will have an opportunity to fall. Most of them. Moreover, both US and Taiwanese stocks are currently hitting new highs. The cryptocurrency market is not very attractive to OTC funds. On-market funds currently prefer to focus on operating meme coins, except for some Currency, AltCoin market does not have much general upward momentum at this stage.
Binance Copying Analysis
GTRadar – BULL
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL" and "GTRadar - Balance" in the past 7 days are -1.64% for the former and +3.14% for the latter, and -19.4% for the former and -5.49% for the latter in the past 30 days.
The entire market has plunged again in the past week, and AltCoin has also suffered heavy casualties. Many AltCoins have fallen by more than 20%. The all-long investment group BULL, which is dominated by the bull market, has lowered its leverage and only lost 1.64% in the past week and has not appeared. Excessive losses, and the balanced investment group is due to short orders for hedging, and it still made a profit of 3.14% in the past week.
Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of about 40% (full position is 300%), among which SOL holds a larger position.
At present, the long and short positions of "GTRadar - Balance" are close to each other. The long orders are mainly BTC, and the short orders are mainly AVAX.
The long-term returns of a follower who frequently changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Potential market opportunities
A deterministic airdrop with an annualized rate of over 300%
The Arweave team of the permanent storage protocol released the token economic model of the parallel computer solution AO this week. The AO network is currently considered by many industry insiders to have high development potential and can achieve effective parallel operation of multiple processes, thereby achieving powerful network performance. The AO token it issued is also the target that many investors are looking forward to.
Basically, AO token airdrop is a rare deterministic investment opportunity in the current market. Therefore, this article will take you to understand AO’s token economic model and how investors should maximize the airdrop income of AO token to achieve an increase of more than 300%. annualized return.
AO announces token economic model
According to the official announcement, all AO tokens are issued fairly, and no tokens will be reserved for the team or venture investors. Additionally, the number and issuance of tokens mimics that of the Bitcoin network, with a total of 21 million tokens issued every five minutes and halved every four years (reducing monthly rather than all at once).
The issued tokens will be distributed to two types of people:
33.3% of the total supply will be distributed to AR token holders over time.
The other 66.6% will be allocated over time to users who cross-chain assets to AO. Currently, only stETH is supported, but more assets will be supported in the future.
This token issuance model is completely different from VC coins and meme coins that are "so-called" fair issuance, and has never been seen in the past.
Why did the price of AR currency fall?
However, after the announcement, it did not promote the further rise of Arweave's existing token AR, because the economic model planned by the Arweave team does not consider the short-term incentives of the existing token AR at all, but instead takes long-term development as the primary consideration.
Specifically, if the Arweave team wants to promote the rise of AR tokens, they can deploy the AR staking contract on AO and distribute 100% of the supply to AR staking users. However, this approach is not very helpful to the long-term development of the AO ecosystem. Therefore, the team chose to allocate 64% of the supply to users who cross-chain assets to AO, and invest most of the resources to stimulate the growth of the ecological economy. From this perspective, it highlights the difference of the Arweave team. .
How to maximize AO benefits?
AO tokens are not issued once. As long as you hold AR tokens (it is recommended to store them in a wallet) or cross-chain assets to the AO network, you can continue to obtain AO tokens until the last token is minted in about 100 years. until.
However, AO tokens cannot currently be transferred or traded, and the token transfer function will not be enabled until 15% of the total token supply is minted, which is expected to occur around February 8, 2025.
So, how should we maximize the benefits of AO during this period?
Based on the calculation of the supply of AR tokens and the production of AO tokens, each AR can obtain approximately 0.016 AO in the first year. Transfers are expected to be open in February next year, so we hold 1 AR based on the calculation of holding for 240 days. By February next year, approximately 0.0105 AO can be obtained. The annualized rate of return under different FDV is as follows:
The number of AO tokens obtained by depositing other qualified cross-chain assets (non-AR assets) into the AO network will depend on the proportion of the user's cross-chain assets in the total TVL.
According to on-chain data, the total asset value of stETH currently deposited in AO has just exceeded US$100 million.
If the current TVL remains unchanged and is calculated based on the opening value of FDV of US$4 billion, by depositing stETH worth 1,000 USD now, the total AO value that can be obtained by February next year will be approximately US$2,095, with an annualized return of approximately 318%. It is obvious that under the current situation, "the amount of AO you can earn by depositing stETH is much higher than holding AR."
However, these calculations can only reflect the current situation. Factors such as TVL and AR prices are floating and changing at any time. Therefore, whether to choose to deposit stETH across the chain or hold AR must be decided based on the current market conditions.
Specifically, investors can make choices based on the criteria calculated by PermaDAO in the latest research:
When TVL / AR market value ≈ 2, the AO obtained by depositing other assets of the same value across the chain is almost the same as holding AR of the same value.
When TVL / AR market value > 2, holding AR of the same value will earn more AO than depositing other assets of the same value across the chain.
When TVL / AR market value < 2, depositing other assets of the same value across the chain will earn more AO than holding AR of the same value.
Other considerations
There are many considerations beyond the benefits of AO itself. For example, holding AR also has the opportunity to appreciate due to the growth of AO's TVL, which can bring dividends to investors in the form of an increase in the value of their principal.
On the other hand, the Arweave team has made it clear that it will support more assets in addition to stETH in the future, so the growth rate of TVL is bound to accelerate significantly.
These potential variables are factors that investors need to consider before making decisions.
hot news
Miners cash out on Bitcoin rally, with transfers to exchanges hitting two-month high
According to CoinDesk, a report from blockchain data analysis company CryptoQuant shows that as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated around a local high of $70,000, the number of coins transferred from Bitcoin mining pools to exchanges this week reached A new high in two months.
Taiwan Virtual Currency Association is officially established! The founder of BitTool serves as the first chairman
The Taiwan Virtual Asset Platform and Trading Business (VASP) Association was officially established on June 13. The association stated in a press release that the first task after its establishment is to formulate the "Self-Regulation Code", properly implement the hierarchical and classified management of industry players, and create an upstream and downstream industry chain and ecosystem. While taking care of the interests of industry players and industry development, It also meets government expectations and protects consumer rights.
The Ethereum NFT market has fewer than 4,000 daily traders left
Monthly trading volumes for the NFT market on Ethereum have been declining since January, and even January, the highest volume month of the year, is a far cry from the multi-billion-dollar monthly trading volumes seen during the 2021/2022 bull run. Total transaction volume in May didn’t even top $500 million. Additionally, the number of NFT traders fell below 4,000 for the first time since June 2021. That’s down 95% from its peak of more than 80,000 in February 2022
MicroStrategy plans to issue another 500 million magnesium convertible bonds to raise funds to continue to increase its position in Bitcoin
According to an official press release issued by MicroStrategy, the company plans to issue a total of $500 million in convertible debt to qualified institutional buyers in a private form. The company will use the net proceeds from the bond sales to purchase more Bitcoin and for general corporate purposes.
SEC Chairman Expects Ethereum Spot ETF’s S-1 Filing to Be Approved Late This Summer
According to information shared by Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler expects the S-1 filing for an Ethereum spot ETF to be approved by the end of this summer.
Parallel computer solution AO announces token economic model
After the announcement, AR tokens fell sharply. In addition to the fact that the market has always been "Sell the news", the AR allocation ratio did not meet expectations. Although it is understandable why the team allocates most of the proportion to asset cross-chains, the AR token holders are only allocated 36%, which still disappoints the community. In addition, the current choice of "cross-chain stETH to AO" This method can distribute more AO tokens than holding AR, which also reduces the short-term holding motivation of AR.
Three-way battle! Who owns the tens of billions of assets seized by SBF?
In the latest development in the bankruptcy case of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, controversy has intensified over the seizure of assets following the conviction of founder SBF. According to The Block, three parties have filed claims against the assets, including the estate of the FTX debtor, a class of creditors, and Emergent, an offshore entity created by SBF.
Digital asset investment products saw a net outflow of US$600 million last week, the largest outflow since March
According to data released by crypto asset management company CoinShares on Monday (17th), digital asset investment products experienced a net outflow of $600 million last week, the largest outflow since March 22, 2024. CoinShares believes that last week’s outflows may have been caused by the impact of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate dot plot.
Insights from Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal: Aptos surpasses Solana, Dogecoin ETF is expected to pass
Recently, the well-known cryptocurrency media Coin Bureau invited Arthur Hayes and Raoul Pal, two industry heavyweights, for an in-depth discussion. In this conversation, they discuss current market risks, active investing strategies, and annual forecasts for the future market.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
This article GT Radar Radar Weekly Report 6/19: AltCoin plunges, the market redefines what value is. First appeared on Zombit.
