Yesterday (18 JUN), the U.S. May retail sales monthly rate, which was called "horrible data" by the market, recorded a lower-than-expected 0.1%, and the previous value was revised down from 0% to -0.2%. After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, giving up yesterday's gains, and the three major stock indexes closed slightly higher. On the other hand, several Fed officials gave speeches, all expressing conservative views that it would take "a few more months" or "a few quarters" to see data supporting interest rate cuts.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
In terms of digital currency, the market's focus over the past day has been on Ethereum. The first thing to mention is that the SEC has ended its investigation into the Ethereum 2.0 blockchain ecosystem. Ethereum developer Consensys tweeted: "The SEC Enforcement Division has notified us that it will end its investigation into Ethereum 2.0. This means that the SEC will not charge that the sale of Ethereum is a securities transaction." The market sees this as an important positive, pushing the price of Ethereum to rebound, rising more than 3.+% on the day.
In addition, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote that Ethereum spot may be launched before July 4, which once again attracted traders to bet. It is worth mentioning that cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis pointed out that Glassnode data showed that the ETH exchange balance has reached an 8-year low, and currently only 10% of ETH is circulating on exchanges. At the same time, he also pointed out that if the Ethereum spot ETF begins trading in the next two weeks, a large amount of institutional funds will flow into the market, and a large-scale supply shock is about to come.
Source: TradingView, ETH price vs. BTC price trend comparison
In terms of options, affected by macro news, the ETH option implied volatility curve flattened and rose, reaching about 65% overall. Large call option transactions were hot, with the most representative being the forward 27 SEP 24-4000-C, with a total of 30,500 purchases, and the 28 JUN 24-4000-C, with a single purchase of 7,000 contracts. The weekly call options were also boosted by price increases and were very popular among retail investors, pushing the smile curve to tilt toward call options as a whole.
Source: Deribit (as of 19 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus, ETH IV levels rise significantly
Source: SignalPlus, ETH Vol Skew tilted towards calls
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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